Urea Daily Review: Market Lacks Positive Support, Companies Execute Pre-Holiday Pre-orders

Domestic Urea Price Index:

According to Feidoodoo data, the urea small granule price index on October 7th was 2523, down 5.91 from the previous working day, a decrease of 0.23% month-on-month, and a decrease of 2.21% year-on-year.

Spot Market Analysis:

Today, the domestic urea market price continued to adjust slightly downwards. After the National Day holiday, the market quotations during the long holiday were generally stable.

Specifically, prices in the Northeast region remained stable at 2510-2610 yuan/ton. Prices in North China rose to 2300-2560 yuan/ton. Prices in the Northwest region remained at 2480-2490 yuan/ton. Prices in the Southwest region were steady at 236-2800 yuan/ton. Prices in East China fell to 2400-2480 yuan/ton. Prices in Central China for small granules fell to 2420-2700 yuan/ton, and large granules fell to 2470-2510 yuan/ton. Prices in the South China region fell to 2550-2670 yuan/ton.

Market Forecast:

In terms of supply, with the previous maintenance facilities restarting and the release of new production capacity, supply continues to rise, the overall situation is relatively relaxed, and the supply is sufficient in the short term. On the enterprise side, after the National Day holiday, companies are mainly executing pre-holiday pre-orders, and enterprise quotations during the National Day were relatively stable. In terms of demand, the overall demand is still sluggish after the holiday. The Northeast market has some autumn fertilizer procurement needs, but actual procurement transactions are limited. On the cost side, there is no significant change in upstream raw material prices at the moment, with limited cost support. In terms of exports, although India currently has bidding expectations, domestic export supervision has tightened, export volumes are limited, and there is no impact on domestic prices for now.

Overall, the current domestic urea market price lacks positive support. It is difficult for the urea market price to rise in the short term, and it is expected that the price trend will mainly be downward.