Urea Daily Review: Post-Holiday Agricultural Demand Market Active, Prices Firmly Operate

Domestic Urea Price Index:

According to Feidoodoo data calculations, on February 19th, the urea small granule price index was 2329.09, an increase of 20.64 from the previous day, up 0.89% sequentially, and down 15.82% year-over-year.

Urea Futures Market:

Today, the urea UR405 contract opened at 2211, with a high of 2224, a low of 2156, a settlement price of 2189, and a closing price of 2161, which is an increase of 10 compared to the settlement price of the previous trading day, up 0.46%, with a daily fluctuation range of 2156-2224. The basis for the 05 contracts in the Shandong area is 139; the 05 contracts saw an increase of 12121 positions today, with current holdings at 174.3 thousand positions.

Spot Market Analysis:

Today, domestic urea market prices continue to adjust upwards, with mainstream regions following up on agricultural demand, high operational rates among enterprises, and a significant volume of pending shipments, all contributing to favorable price increases.

Specifically, prices in the Northeast region rose to 2290-2350 RMB/ton. In the North China region, prices increased to 2160-2350 RMB/ton. Prices in the East China region rose to 2270-2330 RMB/ton. In the South China region, prices increased to 2380-2450 RMB/ton. Prices for medium and small granules in the Central China region rose to 2270-2380 RMB/ton, while large granules increased to 2310-2400 RMB/ton. Prices in the Northwest region rose to 2290-2300 RMB/ton. In the Southwest region, prices rose to 2280-2600 RMB/ton.

Market Forecast:

From the factory perspective, most manufacturers currently have pending orders supporting shipments without pressure, with most quotations adjusting upwards. Some enterprises in mainstream regions have started to limit order acceptance, showing a relatively firm mindset. On the market side, the enthusiasm for downstream procurement in mainstream regions has increased, warming up the market atmosphere and significantly boosting transaction activity, with the overall market negotiation center moving upwards. In terms of supply, the operational rates of units remain high, with daily industry production continuing to increase, ensuring ample market supply. On the demand side, post-holiday downstream agricultural shipments have increased, with current follow-up conditions being satisfactory; industrial demand is still gradually recovering, with slow follow-up in demand.

In summary, the post-holiday agricultural demand market has been quite active, favoring an upward trend in market prices. With the gradual resumption of downstream factories, industrial demand shipments will also follow up sequentially, expecting the urea market prices to continue to operate firmly and stably in the short term.