Urea Daily Review: Prices Continue to Decline, Enterprises Face Pressure in Pre-Holiday Order Collection

Domestic Urea Price Index:

According to Feidoodoo data, on December 28, the urea small particle price index was 2392.27, a decrease of 17.55 from the previous day, down 0.73% from the previous day, and down 13.55% year-on-year.

Urea Futures Market:

Today's urea UR405 contract opened at 2085, with a high of 2125, a low of 2066, a settlement price of 2102, and a closing price of 2114. This closing price is up 25 from the previous trading day's settlement price, an increase of 1.20%, with a daily fluctuation range of 2066-2125. The 05 contracts in the Shandong area had a basis of 156, and the 05 contracts decreased its holdings by 3923 hands, with current holdings at 182,000 hands.

Spot Market Analysis:

Today, domestic urea market prices continue to adjust downwards. Recent market prices have been continuously declining, with the downstream showing interest in entering the market to replenish orders, resulting in a slight improvement in market transactions compared to the previous period.

Specifically, prices in the Northeast region fell to 2380-2470 RMB/ton. In North China, prices dropped to 2170-2440 RMB/ton. In the Northwest region, prices remained stable at 2340-2350 RMB/ton. In the Southwest, prices remained steady at 2350-2800 RMB/ton. In East China, prices fell to 2250-2350 RMB/ton. In Central China, prices for medium and small particles dropped to 2300-2550 RMB/ton, and large particles dropped to 2410-2460 RMB/ton. In South China, prices fell to 2440-2550 RMB/ton.

Market Forecast:

On the manufacturing side, as factories continue to reduce pending orders and follow up with only a small number of new orders, they face increased pressure to collect orders before the holiday. Current company quotations are mostly being lowered. With insufficient demand follow-up, factories face pressure to ship orders, leading to a continuous downward shift in the market's trading focus. Market-wise, the trading atmosphere continues to be weak, with low-end prices constantly appearing and downstream demand for replenishing orders remaining cautious. In terms of supply, gas head plants with planned maintenance have mostly already stopped, and some plants are experiencing equipment failures due to weather conditions, continuing the weak trend in market supply. Demand-wise, the market is sporadically replenishing orders, with low prices continuing to appear. Downstream entities are interested in timely and appropriate stock replenishment, but cautious purchasing attitudes persist due to price trends and market conditions.

Overall, urea enterprises face increased pressure in collecting orders before the holiday, with a continuing downward trend in market prices. Traders, in a wait-and-see state, are interested in replenishing orders, anticipating that urea market prices will continue to maintain a steady yet downward adjustment in the short term.