Urea Daily Review: Unimpressive Order Receipts, Market Prices Continue Weak Performance

Domestic Urea Price Index:

According to Feidoodoo Index data, on December 14, the small particle urea price index was 2518.32, a decrease of 0.91 from the previous day, down 0.04% week-on-week, and down 11.34% year-on-year.

Urea Futures Market:

Today, the urea UR405 contract opened at 2272, with a high of 2284 and a low of 2213. The settlement price was 2239, and the closing price was 2219, down 51 from the previous day's settlement price, a decrease of 2.25%. The day's fluctuation range was 2213-2284; the 05 contract had a basis of 261 in the Shandong area; the 05 contract increased positions by 2138 hands, with total positions now at 140,400 hands.

Spot Market Analysis:

Today, domestic urea prices slightly decreased, with overall changes being minimal. Most manufacturers held stable prices, and the market trend remained temporarily firm.

Specifically, prices in the Northeast region remained stable at 2500-2530 yuan/ton. In North China, prices dropped to 2310-2540 yuan/ton. In the Northwest, prices were stable at 2460-2470 yuan/ton. In the Southwest, prices remained stable at 2480-2800 yuan/ton. In East China, prices rose to 2450-2510 yuan/ton. In Central China, small and medium particle prices dropped to 2440-2650 yuan/ton, while large particle prices dropped to 2540-2660 yuan/ton. In South China, prices remained stable at 2590-2640 yuan/ton.

Market Forecast:

From the factory perspective, after a slight price increase yesterday, order receipts were not ideal. Currently, most prices remain stable, with a small number of manufacturers continuing to increase their quotations and some lowering prices to accept orders. Overall enterprise order receipts have decreased compared to last week. Market-wise, influenced by this week's rainy and snowy weather and poor transportation, market purchasing enthusiasm is low, with a prevailing wait-and-see attitude. On the supply side, the number of urea plants under maintenance this week has decreased compared to last week, with a slight increase in overall operating rates and daily production, leading to a relatively sufficient market supply. Demand-wise, downstream purchases are cautious, with most waiting for lower prices. With an increase in enterprise inventories, traders are more cautious in restocking.

In summary, the current urea industry is marked by a prevailing wait-and-see sentiment, with cautious restocking at lower prices. High-price transactions are difficult, and it is expected that in the short term, urea market prices will continue their trend of stability with minor adjustments.