Urea Daily Review: Weakening Export Support, Urea Prices Decline

Domestic Urea Price Index:
According to Feidoodoo, the urea small granule price index on October 25th was 2513.45, a decrease of 5.91 from the previous day, down 0.23% month-on-month, and 0.02% year-on-year.

Urea Futures Market:
Today's urea UR2401 contract opened at 2210, with a high of 2250, a low of 2188, a settlement price of 2219, and a closing price of 2226. The closing price rose by 27 compared to the settlement price of the previous trading day, an increase of 1.23%. The daily fluctuation range was 2188-2250, with a price difference of 62. The 01 contract increased by 8468 hands today, with a current position of 328,005 hands.

Spot Market Analysis:
Today, the domestic urea market prices were consolidated. Currently, most company factory quotations remain stable. Due to the relatively loose supply side and the slowdown in downstream demand, companies that quoted higher prices earlier have adjusted their quotations downwards.

Specifically, prices in the Northeast region remained stable at 2460-2550 yuan/ton. Prices in the North China region fell to 2320-2520 yuan/ton. Prices in the Northwest region rose to 2500-2510 yuan/ton. Prices in the Southwest region remained stable at 2420-2800 yuan/ton. Prices in the East China region were adjusted down to 2460-2510 yuan/ton. In the Central China region, small granule prices were adjusted down to 2430-2640 yuan/ton, and large granule prices were adjusted down to 2530-2640 yuan/ton. Prices in the South China region remained stable at 2580-2640 yuan/ton.

Market Forecast:
In terms of supply, the current supply volume remains high, and the supply side is relatively relaxed, with no pressure on company shipments. For manufacturers, some companies still have pending orders, mainly from previous orders, but the pending orders are gradually decreasing. As the pending orders become insufficient in the later period, it is expected that many companies will adjust their quotations downwards to attract orders. In terms of demand, with the arrival of winter, the market's rigid demand is gradually weakening. Agricultural demand is more for stockpiling, but due to the current high prices, the market has not attracted downstream merchants to stock up, and the market trading atmosphere remains flat. In terms of exports, there are rumors about this marking that China's participation is very limited, and the export mentality of companies has been hit hard. With the weakening of export support, prices are expected to continue to decline.

In summary, apart from the support of pending orders from companies, there are currently no new positive factors stimulating the urea market. With tighter export policies, high supply, and slow downstream demand follow-up, it is expected that the urea market trend will mainly decline in the short term.