Urea Prices Continue to Rise Amid Favorable Export Atmosphere

Domestic Urea Price Index:
According to data from Feidoodoo, the urea small granule price index on August 14th is 2507.55, an increase of 9.09 from last Friday, up 0.36% week-on-week, and 3.97% year-on-year.

Urea Futures Market:
The opening price for the urea UR2401 contract is 2102, with a high of 2115, a low of 2056, a settlement price of 2081, and a closing price of 2089. Compared to the settlement price of the previous trading day, it increased by 39, up 1.9%. The daily fluctuation range is 2056-2115, with a price difference of 59. The 01 contract reduced its holdings by 9992 hands today, with a current holding of 321,131 hands.

Spot Market Analysis:
Today, the domestic urea market fluctuated narrowly. Most urea factories kept their quotations stable, while a few, supported by export orders from major northern urea factories, tentatively increased their prices slightly, but actual transactions were limited.

Specifically, prices in the Northeast region remained stable at 2240-2460 yuan/ton. Prices in North China fell to 2340-2550 yuan/ton. Prices in the Northwest region remained stable at 2440-2450 yuan/ton. Prices in the Southwest region remained stable at 2400-2650 yuan/ton. Prices in East China rose to 2490-2590 yuan/ton. In Central China, the price of small granules rose to 2480-2650 yuan/ton, while large granules remained stable at 2550-2600 yuan/ton. Prices in South China fell to 2630-2700 yuan/ton.

Market Forecast:
In terms of market transactions, due to the current high prices in the domestic urea market, market resistance has increased. With the decrease in domestic fertilizer use, the current market transaction atmosphere is average, with most transactions being out of necessity. On the export front, supported by the Indian standard, major northern urea factories have export orders pending, and companies currently face no significant sales pressure, mainly focusing on price holding. Internationally, global urea prices remain high, correspondingly boosting domestic market sentiment, with the overall atmosphere clearly improving. In terms of futures, today's UR401 opened high and continued to rise, which is expected to influence the subsequent rise in urea market prices.

In summary, influenced by the average domestic transactions and favorable foreign export atmosphere, in the short term, the urea market trend is expected to mainly oscillate and consolidate.