Urea: The epidemic disrupted the market rhythm, and the urea market rose and fell in disorder

June 12, 2024, 9:21 AM

Jinlianchuang

2892

Guide

Highlights at a glance

Since mid-March, the resurgence of the epidemic has severely disrupted China's urea market, causing logistical blockages, regional supply imbalances, and volatile price fluctuations. As of April, prices fluctuate between 2780–2920 yuan/ton, with regional swings of 50–100 yuan/ton amid chaotic market dynamics. Domestic urea output remains stable at around 161,000 tons/day, but shipment delays due to疫情防控 have led to inventory buildup in some areas and supply tightness in others. Agricultural demand in North, South, and East China has largely ended, while industrial demand—hit by shutdowns in board and compound fertilizer sectors—has weakened significantly. The earlier panic-driven restocking has further dampened immediate downstream demand. Although localized price increases occur, sustained upward momentum is lacking. In the short term, the market remains weak and range-bound; long-term trends hinge on epidemic control and transportation recovery. Should demand fail to rebound post-logi

Since mid-March, the epidemic situation has suddenly become severe, and the shipment of most enterprises has begun to be blocked, and the supply and demand situation between domestic urea regions has become more and more obvious. Entering April, the epidemic has disrupted the rhythm of the ups and downs of the urea market. The market is dominated by narrow regional ups and downs, with fluctuations ranging from 50-100 yuan/ton, and local fluctuations ranging from 10-30 yuan/ton. Up to now, the mainstream regional prices refer to the price level of 2780-2920 yuan / ton, and the market is in a regional chaotic ups and downs.

The impact of the epidemic on the economic situation, logistics and shipment, supply and demand pattern, market mentality and other factors itself is multi-faceted. Therefore, it cannot be simply defined as whether the impact on the market is positive or negative. Next, under the cover of the epidemic, the domestic urea market supply and demand situation The changes are briefly analyzed as follows:

1. Supply side:

As of this Tuesday, the domestic daily output of urea is about 161,000 tons. Recently, the recovery time of the equipment has been delayed due to the epidemic prevention and control, and some companies have temporarily postponed the maintenance plan. The domestic Nissan is relatively stable. The epidemic situation has been repeated and severe. Shipping problems still hinder the flow of goods between regions, and the freight rates of some trucks continue to rise. The transportation capacity of fire transportation is slightly tight, and the supply and demand situation between regions continues to diverge. Most of the enterprises with limited supply of goods are accumulating warehouses, and prices continue to be under pressure and downward. However, in areas where goods are imported, the supply of goods is slightly tight.

2. Demand side:

Since April, the agricultural demand in North China, South China and East China has basically ended. According to the practice of previous years, the agricultural demand has been reduced in stages except for the Northeast and Central China regions, and the market demand has gradually shifted to the industry. However, this year, the Northeast region, as the source of goods, has caused a significant decrease in the inflow of peripheral goods due to the shipment of the epidemic, and it is difficult for some agricultural needs to support the overall market temporarily. Affected by the epidemic, some board factories and compound fertilizer industries have parked in large areas, and the industrial and agricultural demand has dropped significantly. . In addition, the outbreak of the epidemic in mid-March, and the panic of stockpiling in the market has already led to some demand ahead, so it is currently seen that downstream demand continues to show weakness.

The phased weakening of demand in the recent period and the continuous obstruction of the supply of goods under the pressure of logistics are still the main factors affecting the market. The overall supply and demand pattern of urea in China is still weak. Although the regional market has been pushed up in stages, the motivation is insufficient, and some companies continue to accumulate stocks. In the short term, the market is stable and weak. In the long run, with the improvement of the epidemic, local transportation pressure will gradually ease. At that time, the accumulative enterprises will reduce their warehouses and shipments, and the tight supply situation in the source of goods will also ease. If demand does not recover in time, there will be downside risks under the impact of market conditions. In the short-term, focus on the futures disk, just need to follow up, and in the long-term focus on the epidemic situation and changes in supply and demand.

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The international market is overturned, and the domestic urea has great achievements