Urea Weekly: Companies Intend to Initiate Pre-receipt Plans, Many Lower Prices to Receive Orders

Feidoodoo Price Index:

With the change in supply and demand relationships, the urea market began to adjust prices this week. The average price index for small granule urea in the domestic market this week is 2617.14, up 22 from last week, an increase of 0.85%.

At the beginning of this week, companies were supported by pending dispatches, the daily production increase was slow, the market supply was tight, and the downstream market demand still existed. Compound fertilizer demand followed in an orderly manner, and the favorable supply-demand relationship supported the market. Additionally, some companies began to pre-receive orders during the National Day holiday, and there was no pressure on production and sales, so prices were adjusted upwards. Midweek, devices under maintenance in the early stage have gradually resumed, daily production has slightly increased, and there is still an expectation of increased production in a short time, so the favorable supply side has begun to weaken. Moreover, the enthusiasm for downstream compound fertilizer purchases has decreased, traders are cautious in purchasing, and prices have been slightly adjusted downwards. In the second half of the week, with the approach of the National Day holiday, some companies intend to initiate pre-receipt plans, receiving orders at lower prices, making small concessions, and prices are adjusted downwards again.

Urea Delivery Area Quotation:

Specifically, the price in the Northeast region has risen to 2560-2620 yuan/ton. The price in the North China region has fallen to 2380-2650 yuan/ton. The price in the Northwest region is stable at 2560-2570 yuan/ton. The price in the Southwest region is stable at 2450-2800 yuan/ton. The price in the East China region has fallen to 2580-2650 yuan/ton. The price of small granules in the Central China region has fallen to 2490-2730 yuan/ton, and the price of large granules has fallen to 2540-2620 yuan/ton. The price in the South China region has fallen to 2620-2730 yuan/ton.

Daily Production Rises Rapidly:

This week, the domestic urea production is about 1.136 million tons, a 3.08% increase from last week, and a 6.98% increase year-on-year; the daily production is 162,000 tons, with a slight increase in daily production during the week, which is higher than the same period in 2022. The operating rate of the domestic urea industry is about 76.16%, a 2.27% increase from last week, and an 8.23% increase year-on-year; the operating rate of the domestic urea industry has been slightly adjusted upwards, still higher than the same period last year.

Market Inventory:

This week, the inventory of large granule urea at domestic ports is 90,000 tons, a decrease of 17,500 tons from last week, and an increase of 6,000 tons from the same period last year. The inventory of large granule urea at ports decreased during the week, higher than the same period last year.

This week, the inventory of small granule urea at domestic ports is 190,000 tons, a decrease of 108,000 tons from last week, and an increase of 69,000 tons from the same period last year. The inventory of small granule urea at ports decreased during the week, higher than the same period last year.

This week, the company's inventory is about 205,700 tons, a decrease of 28,400 tons from last week; the total port inventory is 280,000 tons, a decrease of 30.95% from last week.

Compound Fertilizer Industry:

This week, the domestic compound fertilizer market is narrowly consolidated, and the focus of transactions in some regions is slightly adjusted upwards. On the enterprise side, some companies are still executing previous pending orders, most of which can be executed until the end of this month or even the end of the month. The orders continue to be delivered, and a small number of new orders are concluded, with narrow price changes. On the demand side, the Northeast intends to promote the winter storage start-up plan in recent days, and demand may rise again. On the raw material side, the raw material market has cooled down, the cost of compound fertilizer has weakened, and prices have fluctuated narrowly. Overall, companies still have support for pending dispatches, raw material prices are narrowly adjusted, there are some new orders for replenishment in the near future, and it is expected that the prices of compound fertilizers will mainly remain stable in the short term.

Melamine Industry:

This week, the melamine market price continued to decline. On the enterprise side, some companies have a small amount of support for pending dispatches, and many companies are lowering prices to sell. On the supply side, the utilization rate of melamine production capacity continued to increase slightly this week, and devices under maintenance in the early stage have gradually resumed and restarted, and supply is continuously