August 25 Phosphate Fertilizer Daily Review: Sharp Declines in Sulfur Costs Weigh on the Market as Phosphate Fertilizers Remain in a Weak Stalemate

MAP Price Index:

According to Feidoodoo data, on August 25, the domestic 55% powder MAP price index was 4,355.00, down 0.85% from the previous working day; the 55% granular MAP price index was 4,450.00, unchanged from the previous working day; and the 58% powder MAP price index was 4,693.33, unchanged from the previous working day.

MAP Market Analysis and Outlook:

The domestic MAP market continued to operate weakly today. On the producer side, most plants are still fulfilling earlier orders. Prices for 55% powder MAP edged lower, while some traders offered at slightly lower levels. Firm transactions remain subject to negotiation. On the market side, the wait-and-see atmosphere has not improved materially. On the demand side, some downstream compound fertilizer producers are mainly using raw materials stocked earlier and are maintaining only limited rigid-demand procurement. New-order transactions are limited, market sentiment remains cautious and deadlocked, and demand continues to be weak. On the raw material side, domestic sulfur prices continued to decline sharply today; port sulfur inventories remained relatively low overall; sulfuric acid prices continued weak consolidation; and the phosphate rock market remained under pressure. However, phosphate rock prices are still trading within a relatively high historical range. Although cost-side prices have declined, cost support remains substantial. Overall, the MAP market is expected to maintain weak consolidation in the short term. Attention should focus on raw material price trends, the pace of autumn fertilizer procurement by downstream compound fertilizer producers, and the pass-through impact of geopolitical developments on costs.

DAP Price Index:

According to Feidoodoo data, on August 25, the domestic mainstream 64% granular DAP price index was 4,571.67, unchanged from the previous working day; the 60% brown DAP price index was 4,700.00, unchanged from the previous working day; and the 57% DAP price index was 4,410.00, unchanged from the previous working day.

DAP Market Analysis and Outlook:

The domestic DAP market continued to consolidate in a stalemate today. On the producer side, some producers are mainly shipping earlier contracted orders awaiting delivery. Their willingness to support prices remains strong, and firm transactions are subject to negotiation. On the market side, trading remains in a stalemate, with participants taking a wait-and-see approach. On the demand side, there has been no material recovery. Market deliveries remain slow overall. Although the autumn fertilizer procurement window is gradually approaching and transactions have improved slightly from earlier levels, actual downstream follow-up remains limited and large-scale procurement has not yet begun. On the raw material side, domestic sulfur prices continued to decline sharply today; port sulfur inventories remained relatively low overall; sulfuric acid prices continued weak consolidation; and the phosphate rock market remained under pressure. However, phosphate rock prices are still trading within a relatively high historical range. Raw material prices on the cost side remain elevated. Although cost pressure has eased slightly, costs continue to provide strong market support. Overall, the DAP market is expected to maintain narrow-range consolidation in the short term. Attention should focus on changes in raw material prices, downstream demand follow-up, and subsequent export policy adjustments.

Sulfur Market Prices:

According to Feidoodoo data, on August 25, granular sulfur at Zhenjiang Port was priced at 8,000 yuan/tonne, down 300 yuan/tonne from the previous working day; granular sulfur at Dafeng Port was priced at 7,980 yuan/tonne, down 300 yuan/tonne; powdered and lump sulfur at Zhenjiang Port was priced at 7,950 yuan/tonne, down 300 yuan/tonne; powdered and lump sulfur at Dafeng Port was priced at 7,930 yuan/tonne, down 300 yuan/tonne; solid sulfur in East China was priced at 8,700 yuan/tonne, down 400 yuan/tonne; and liquid sulfur in East China was priced at 8,500 yuan/tonne, down 275 yuan/tonne.

Sulfur Market Analysis and Outlook:

The domestic sulfur market moved lower overall today, while the contest between bullish and bearish factors continued. Sentiment among holders of freely circulating port cargoes weakened, and some traders offered concessions to facilitate sales. The benchmark for spot negotiations moved lower, trading remained subdued overall, and market participants maintained a strong wait-and-see stance. With Zhenjiang Port as the market benchmark, spot trading at ports remained consistently quiet today. Traders generally maintained a negative wait-and-see attitude, and pressure on cargo holders did not improve. Sellers showed a strong willingness to move cargoes, but downstream buying follow-up was insufficient. Only sporadic firm transactions were completed today, total trading volume was limited, and the market price benchmark moved noticeably lower.

On the supply side, domestic refinery operations remained generally stable and domestic cargoes circulated normally. On the import side, geopolitical risks around the Strait of Hormuz remain, creating potential disruption to long-haul cargoes. However, the short-term impact of geopolitical sentiment on the domestic spot market is limited. Port inventories remain relatively low and provide some support to the market. On the demand side, downstream demand remains weak. Phosphate fertilizer producers are constrained by finished-product sales, maintain rational operating rates, and mainly purchase raw materials to meet rigid restocking needs. Willingness to build large inventories proactively is limited, and acceptance of high-priced raw materials is weak, creating clear resistance to further upward movement in sulfur prices. Overall, the sulfur market is currently undergoing a correction from high levels. Long-term supply expectations arising from geopolitical risks are competing with weak domestic spot demand, and the market may continue to operate with a volatile but weak tone in the short term. Attention should focus on overseas cargo shipments and arrivals, changes in downstream phosphate fertilizer operating rates, and the potential impact of US-Iran geopolitical developments on shipping.

Phosphate Fertilizer Market Updates:

August 25: In Anhui, 55% powder MAP delivered prices were quoted at around 4,400-4,430 yuan/tonne, unchanged.

August 25: In Northeast China, 55% powder MAP delivered prices were quoted at around 4,250-4,250 yuan/tonne, unchanged.

August 25: In Henan, 55% powder MAP delivered prices were quoted at around 4,380-4,420 yuan/tonne, unchanged.

August 25: In Hubei, mainstream ex-factory prices for 55% powder MAP were quoted at around 4,300-4,350 yuan/tonne, unchanged.

August 25: In Jiangsu, 55% powder MAP delivered prices were quoted at around 4,380-4,450 yuan/tonne, unchanged.

August 25: In Shandong, 55% powder MAP delivered prices were quoted at around 4,350-4,450 yuan/tonne, unchanged.

August 25: In Sichuan, 55% powder MAP delivered prices were quoted at around 4,300-4,350 yuan/tonne, unchanged.

August 25: In Yunnan, 55% powder MAP ex-factory prices were quoted at around 4,250-4,300 yuan/tonne, unchanged.

August 25: In Shaanxi, 60% DAP self-pickup ex-factory prices were quoted at 4,700-4,750 yuan/tonne, unchanged.

August 25: In Northeast China, 64% DAP self-pickup ex-factory prices were quoted at 4,550-4,600 yuan/tonne, unchanged.

August 25: In Hebei, 57% DAP self-pickup prices were quoted at 4,380-4,450 yuan/tonne, unchanged.

August 25: In Hubei, 64% DAP self-pickup ex-factory prices were quoted at 4,800-4,850 yuan/tonne, unchanged.

August 25: In Shandong, 64% DAP self-pickup warehouse prices were quoted at 4,900-5,000 yuan/tonne, unchanged; 57% DAP self-pickup terminal prices were quoted at 4,400-4,450 yuan/tonne, unchanged.