Daily Macro Morning Briefing 2026-11-09

Global Key Indices — Latest Readings

Domestic Macroeconomic Indices

2026 Macroeconomic Indices

Contents

Domestic News

1. Ministry of Commerce spokesperson answers questions on US sanctions on Chinese companies

2. SAFE: China's foreign exchange reserves stood at USD 3,405.2 billion at the end of October 2026

3. SASAC Vice Chairman Li Zhen: central SOEs have utilized more than USD 120 billion of foreign investment cumulatively as of end-September

4. CPC Central Committee issues a notice on arrangements for electing delegates to the 21st Party Congress

5. Targeting new derivatives used in illegal food additives, SAMR releases two supplementary testing methods

6. Two departments hold consultations and coordinate rain and snow response work

7. Annual passenger volume on four cross-strait "mini three links" routes hits a record high

8. China's self-developed modular "mobile warm house" to be deployed in Antarctica

International News

1. ECB President Lagarde: overall European inflation is picking up, but fundamental indicators remain stable

2. Iraqi foreign minister warns the Middle East may slide back into war

3. Iraqi oil minister: current daily oil output has exceeded 5 million barrels

4. Houthis claim six military operations against Saudi Arabia, targeting airports and other sites

5. Credit Agricole: the Canadian dollar remains weighed down by economic weakness, with jobs data likely to set the next direction

6. US military: a task force is established to cut off Iran's overland routes used to support illicit transport

7. Rubio to attend G7 foreign ministers' meeting in Paris, with Ukraine expected to top the agenda

8. Several US lawmakers say they will push to scrap unreasonable tariff policies

Domestic News

1. Ministry of Commerce spokesperson answers questions on US sanctions on Chinese companies

Q: On November 5 US Eastern Time, the US State Department announced sanctions on two Chinese companies. Reports suggest this is the first time the US has sanctioned Chinese companies on Cuba-related grounds. What is China's comment? A: We have noted the situation. The US side has imposed unilateral sanctions on Chinese companies on the pretext of third-party involvement, which violates international law and the basic norms of international relations. China firmly opposes this. Recently the US side has escalated sanctions and suppression against China, rolling out a dense series of discriminatory restrictive measures, seriously harming the rights and interests of Chinese companies, departing from the important consensus reached by the two heads of state, and undermining the stability of China-US economic and trade relations. China urges the US side to correct its erroneous practice as soon as possible, and reserves the right to take necessary measures to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests.

2. SAFE: China's foreign exchange reserves stood at USD 3,405.2 billion at the end of October 2026

Statistics from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange show that at the end of October 2026, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at USD 3,405.2 billion, up USD 4.9 billion, or 0.14%, from the end of September. In October 2026, affected by global macroeconomic data and the monetary policies and expectations of major economies, the US dollar index rose and prices of major global financial assets moved in mixed directions. The combined effect of currency translation and changes in asset prices lifted the scale of foreign exchange reserves that month. China's economy has been operating steadily on the whole and has achieved new progress in high-quality development, providing support for keeping the scale of foreign exchange reserves basically stable.

3. SASAC Vice Chairman Li Zhen: central SOEs have utilized more than USD 120 billion of foreign investment cumulatively as of end-September

Li Zhen, Vice Chairman of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council, said at the Hongqiao International Economic Forum that central SOEs have established more than 17,000 institutions and projects in over 180 countries and regions, with overseas assets approaching 10 trillion yuan. In the first three quarters of this year, central SOEs imported goods from 177 countries (regions), with total imports up 5.1% year on year. As of end-September, central SOEs had formed joint ventures and cooperation with 301 enterprises from 39 countries (regions), utilizing more than USD 120 billion of foreign investment cumulatively.

4. CPC Central Committee issues a notice on arrangements for electing delegates to the 21st Party Congress

The Fifth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee decided that the 21st National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing in the second half of 2027. The CPC Central Committee has recently issued the Notice on the Election of Delegates to the 21st National Congress, setting out comprehensive arrangements for the election work. The Organization Department of the CPC Central Committee recently held a meeting to make specific arrangements for this work.

5. Targeting new derivatives used in illegal food additives, SAMR releases two supplementary testing methods

The State Administration for Market Regulation has released two supplementary food testing methods targeting new derivatives of phenolphthalein-type (phenol red-type) and bisacodyl-type substances illegally added to food. Phenolphthalein-type and bisacodyl-type substances have a stimulant laxative effect, and long-term intake may cause abdominal pain, diarrhea, electrolyte imbalance and liver and kidney damage. As enforcement has intensified, some lawbreakers, in order to evade regulation, have synthesized new derivatives of these two types of substances and added them to jelly, preserved fruit, candy, beverages and other foods while falsely claiming efficacy. The testing methods introduced this time can effectively identify multiple new derivatives of the two types of substances, providing technical support for regulatory enforcement and for conviction and sentencing.

6. Two departments hold consultations and coordinate rain and snow response work

On November 7, the Office of the National Disaster Prevention, Reduction and Relief Committee and the Ministry of Emergency Management, together with the China Meteorological Administration, organized a special consultation to analyze and assess the development trend of the current round of rain and snow, to coordinate with key provinces including Anhui, Jiangxi, Beijing, Hebei and Liaoning, and to deploy response work for the current blizzards and heavy rainfall. The consultation stressed the need to genuinely raise awareness, firmly establish bottom-line and worst-case thinking, fully lock in disaster prevention responsibilities, and solidly carry out all response work. Measures must be differentiated by region and category and applied precisely: Northeast and North China should focus on preventing blizzard disasters, while southern regions should focus on preventing flash floods and geological disasters that may be triggered by localized heavy rainfall. Risk prevention should focus on key industries and sectors: strengthen traffic diversion and guidance on key road sections to ensure road safety; keep a close watch on large-span structures such as agricultural greenhouses and factory buildings to prevent collapse under snow load; and guide offshore fishing vessels to implement wind-proof and risk-avoidance measures. Close attention should be paid to the course of the rain and snow weather to ensure that affected people can pass the winter safely and warmly. Duty shifts and information reporting should be strengthened, and forecasting, early warning and consultation analysis should be reinforced, so as to effectively carry out response work for this round of rain and snow.

7. Annual passenger volume on four cross-strait "mini three links" routes hits a record high

According to statistics from the Fujian Provincial Department of Transport, as of 15:00 on November 7, passenger volume on the four cross-strait "mini three links" routes exceeded 2.03 million trips in 2026, setting a record high for annual passenger volume. At present, the cross-strait "mini three links" passenger routes comprise four services: Xiamen-Kinmen, Quanzhou-Kinmen, Mawei-Matsu and Huangqi-Matsu. They are among the most important and convenient channels for exchanges between people in Fujian and Taiwan, and have played an important role in deepening cross-strait integrated development and enhancing the wellbeing of compatriots on both sides. The four routes currently operate 36 scheduled sailings per day. Port and shipping operators on both sides have established a regular consultation mechanism to dynamically add sailings during holidays and passenger peaks, and have introduced a number of service measures to facilitate travel for people on both sides.

8. China's self-developed modular "mobile warm house" to be deployed in Antarctica

An Antarctic emergency dormitory pod jointly developed by China Construction Eighth Engineering Division and the National Key Laboratory of Green Building set off for Antarctica aboard the Xuelong 2 on the 7th. Chinese Antarctic expedition members conducting field research in the future can look forward to staying in this new modular "mobile warm house". To withstand the extreme cold of Antarctica, the "mobile warm house" uses square steel as its main structure and can cope with temperatures of minus 40 degrees Celsius; combined with a highly insulated envelope system and heated flooring, it can keep the indoor temperature stable in a comfortable range of 18 to 24 degrees Celsius. The self-developed thermal-break adjustable ventilation valve technology can prevent wind-driven snow intrusion and eliminate condensation inside the pod while minimizing heat conduction, meeting the needs of polar buildings for unpowered continuous ventilation and insulation.

International News

1. ECB President Lagarde: overall European inflation is picking up, but fundamental indicators remain stable

The European Central Bank published the content of an interview with ECB President Lagarde by Japan's Yomiuri Shimbun. Asked how she viewed the current inflation outlook, Lagarde said headline inflation was 4% in October, higher than expected a few months ago but in line with market expectations. The figure looks high, but it is essential to analyze the reasons behind it in depth. The elevated reading is mainly attributable to higher energy prices: affected by the Middle East conflict and the decline in global refining capacity, energy inflation rose from 18.9% in September to 20.8%. Energy prices have therefore had a major impact on our inflation data. Food inflation also rose. But fundamental indicators remain stable. Core inflation, excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, was 2.5%, unchanged from September. Services inflation edged up to 3.3% but remained within the range of the past four months. We still do not have the detailed breakdown of inflation, which would help further clarify what is driving services inflation — namely, whether inflation stems mainly from energy-intensive sectors such as transport, or whether we are beginning to see broader indirect effects. We will watch this closely. In any case, we know inflation data will remain elevated in the coming quarters. The higher inflation is and the longer it persists, the greater the risk to our medium-term target.

2. Iraqi foreign minister warns the Middle East may slide back into war

On the 7th local time, Iraqi Foreign Minister Hussein said in an interview with the media that the current situation indicates the Middle East may see a renewed outbreak of war. Hussein noted that Iraq has lost about USD 60 billion due to the halt in oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, and that after reaching an agreement with the United States and Iran, Iraq resumed oil exports through the strait. He said the United States has formally asked Iraq to close all border crossings with Iran except two. Iraq has also notified Iran that it accepts developing friendly alliance relations with it but rejects its interference in Iraqi affairs, and there are signs that external forces are using Iraqi territory to attack neighboring countries.

3. Iraqi oil minister: current daily oil output has exceeded 5 million barrels

Iraqi Oil Minister Basim Mohammed told the Iraqi state news agency on Saturday that the country's daily crude output now exceeds 5 million barrels. With the economic shock from the Iran war and increased investment by international oil majors, Iraq is seeking to raise its OPEC production quota. The war hit Iraq particularly hard, forcing it to sharply cut oil exports and causing a sharp drop in government oil revenue. That revenue source accounted for 88% of total Iraqi government revenue last year, compared with about 55% for Saudi Arabia.

4. Houthis claim six military operations against Saudi Arabia, targeting airports and other sites

On the evening of the 7th local time, Yemen's Houthi armed group said in a statement that, in response to Saudi air strikes and hostile acts, it had carried out six military operations against Saudi Arabia using missiles and drones, attacking King Khalid International Airport in the Saudi capital Riyadh and multiple Saudi oil facilities. The statement also said the Houthis attacked a military assembly of personnel at a National Guard barracks in Saudi Arabia's Najran region, causing heavy casualties, and also attacked Saudi military assemblies in Yemen's Al Jawf and Marib provinces. There was no immediate Saudi response.

5. Credit Agricole: the Canadian dollar remains weighed down by economic weakness, with jobs data likely to set the next direction

A Credit Agricole research report noted that over the past week USD/CAD stabilized around 1.40. The Democrats' landslide in the US midterm elections did not noticeably lift the Canadian dollar, and earlier positive signals from the resumption of US-Canada trade talks failed to change that. Canada's preliminary third-quarter GDP showed growth slowing to 1.3%, below the Bank of Canada's 2% forecast, and economic weakness continues to weigh on the currency. The bank believes the near-term focus shifts to the October employment report. Previously weak jobs data raised market concerns that Canada's labor market may struggle to cope with US-Canada trade friction. Signs of recovery in the job market could support the Canadian dollar. However, for USD/CAD to break decisively below the 200-day moving average around 1.39, stronger positive catalysts would still be needed.

6. US military: a task force is established to cut off Iran's overland routes used to support illicit transport

US Central Command said in a statement that on November 7 its commander ordered the establishment of a task force to support ongoing US government efforts to prevent Iran from using overland transport for advanced weapons and other materiel. Admiral Brad Cooper has ordered the formation of Task Force Iron Gate. Based in Tampa, Florida, the task force comprises about 20 civilian and military personnel and works as an internal team within Central Command. The new team will coordinate with other US government agencies to prevent advanced weapons systems, dual-use technology, sanctioned goods and illicit financial flows from moving through Iran's land borders and the Caspian Sea. General Cooper said: "The establishment of Task Force Iron Gate builds on the success of our iron-fisted maritime blockade of Iran. Strengthening Central Command's cooperation with interagency partners will further limit Iran's ability to fund terrorism, rebuild weapons plants and replenish its military." In recent months, the US maritime blockade has cost Iran more than USD 25 billion in crude oil exports. The United States continues to impose strict maritime controls on all vessels entering and leaving Iranian ports.

7. Rubio to attend G7 foreign ministers' meeting in Paris, with Ukraine expected to top the agenda

Foreign media report that US Secretary of State Rubio will visit Paris from November 8 to 10 to attend the G7 foreign ministers' meeting. The meeting is expected to focus on support for Ukraine. With a harsh winter approaching, whether the G7 can stay united and put forward concrete response measures will be a focus of the meeting. This is Rubio's first overseas trip since the Republican Party's defeat in the midterm elections. Military action against Iran pushed up fuel prices and is seen as one of the reasons for the Republicans' major electoral setback. Divisions over the direction of next-step policy have also emerged within the US administration. What policy stance Rubio will put forward is also being watched. The US State Department stressed that Rubio will "advance American national interests" at the meeting. He also plans to hold bilateral talks with counterparts from various countries while in Paris. Participants are also expected to discuss artificial intelligence (AI) and the situation in the Indo-Pacific.

8. Several US lawmakers say they will push to scrap unreasonable tariff policies

Given strong US voter reaction to the high cost of living and high inflation, and following the Democrats' landslide victory in the midterm elections, several Democratic members of Congress said they will work to repeal the current unreasonable tariff policies. Richard Neal, a Democratic member of the House of Representatives from Massachusetts, said on the 6th that he is committed to reversing the Trump administration's unreasonable tariffs and backroom trade deals. Ron Wyden, a Democratic senator from Oregon, said that after becoming chairman of the Senate Finance Committee in January next year he will push legislation targeting tariffs from Trump's second term. Hakeem Jeffries, a New York Democrat expected to become Speaker of the House early next year, said in an open letter on the 4th that "toxic" Republican policies such as tariffs and the Iran war have driven up the cost of living, and that Democrats must do everything possible to bring costs down.

International Shipping News

Baltic Freight Indices

Container Shipping — Europe Route

Weak Fundamentals Drive Pricing, Paper Rate Hikes Hard to Offset

Container shipping Europe route contracts continued to run weak. Recently, news of US-Iran talks has sharply cooled the sentiment premium on the geopolitical front, but signs of renewed US military action have not dissipated, the strait blockade continues, and vessels are still being attacked; in practical terms, the navigation risks on the two major straits have not faded, and the support that various surcharges provide to freight rates will remain for some time. On the board this shows as support in nearby months, with the premium in far months falling more sharply. On fundamentals, the SCFI Europe route published on November 6 came in at USD 2,325/TEU, down USD 45 from the previous period, a weekly decline of 1.89%, ending a brief spell of stabilization. The market had previously cited the SCFIS Europe route at 2,304.32 points, up 4.84% week on week, as evidence of "spot stabilization", but SCFIS is a settlement-price index that reflects the settlement levels of voyages concluded over the past week and lags the latest marginal changes in the spot market. The turn to decline in SCFI shows that the surface stability carriers maintained through the "rate-increase letters to defend prices, opening rates quietly cut" model is loosening in the face of insufficient cargo volumes. Looking ahead, given that carriers usually sign long-term contracts from December and that cargo volumes generally improve marginally in late November, December increases are usually partly realized, so the market still has expectation support for rate increases in far months. Overall, the market trades around carriers' actual quotations, with many game-playing factors at work, and will mainly oscillate and wait in the short term until new carrier guidance emerges.

International Shipping Developments

1. 41 vessels waiting at anchor outside Durban

African port media report that 41 vessels are waiting at anchor outside Durban. A Kuehne+Nagel report dated November 2 shows that over the past 30 days container ships averaged 6.02 days of arrival delay and 5.59 days of departure delay, with a median delay of 15 days on third-party platforms, and assesses that substantive improvement will not come until the end of the first quarter of 2027.

2. 60% of Asia-Europe capacity returns to Suez

Data show that in the week to November 1, container ship transits through the Suez Canal reached 53, up 130% year on year, with 60% of Asia-Europe capacity having returned to Suez and weekly transits above 50 for five consecutive weeks. The average over the past three weeks was 57 transits, up 13% from the previous three weeks.

3. West Africa route surcharges raised in quick succession

CMA CGM issued two notices in a row, imposing peak season surcharges from November 8 on China, Hong Kong and Macao to West Africa, and from November 15 on Southeast Asia to West Africa, the latter at USD 500 per TEU; Hapag-Lloyd will add USD 400 per TEU from November 6 on Asia and Oceania to West Africa.