Daily Urea Review: Factory Orders Improve, Prices Rebound, Market Sentiment Remains Cautious

Domestic Urea Price Index:

According to Feidoodoo data estimation, on November 22, the urea small granule price index was 2549.36, up 9.36 from yesterday, an increase of 0.37% on a day-to-day basis, and a decrease of 7.23% year-on-year.

Urea Futures Market:

Today, the opening price for urea UR2401 contract was 2320, with a high of 2346, a low of 2285, a settlement price of 2317, and a closing price of 2333. The closing price was up 35 compared to the last trading day's settlement price, an increase of 1.52%, with a daily fluctuation range of 2285-2346. The Shandong area basis for the 01 contract was 117. Today, the 01 contract decreased its position by 10,261 hands, with a current position of 246,727 hands.

Spot Market Analysis:

Today, domestic urea prices stopped falling and rose. With continuous new orders, enterprises adjusted their factory quotations based on their production and inventory.

Specifically, prices in the Northeast region rose to 2550-2600 yuan/ton. Prices in North China rose to 2330-2610 yuan/ton. Prices in the Northwest region remained stable at 2480-2490 yuan/ton. Prices in the Southwest region fell to 2520-2800 yuan/ton. Prices in East China rose to 2430-2490 yuan/ton. In Central China, the price of small and medium granules rose to 2440-2650 yuan/ton, and large granules rose to 2580-2660 yuan/ton. Prices in South China rose to 2660-2710 yuan/ton.

Market Forecast:

From the enterprise perspective, although there are many pending orders, some enterprises plan to accumulate stock in anticipation of future maintenance, resulting in a 21.43% week-on-week increase in inventory. In terms of supply, there is an expectation of reduced production. The loss volume from coal-based urea maintenance has decreased, while that from gas-based urea maintenance has slightly increased. It is expected that the number of gas-based urea plants shutting down at the end of the month will increase, and the dynamics of the gas head enterprises need to be continuously monitored. In the market, after factories lowered their quotes at the beginning of the week, the willingness to make low-price deals increased, and orders in the past two days were good, leading to a rebound in prices. The external market continues to be weak, influenced by low-priced goods from the earlier period. In terms of demand, downstream purchasing sentiment is relatively cautious, with actual transactions following demand. The market mentality is unstable, and traders are mostly cautious.

In summary, enterprises currently intend to accumulate stock, and high prices limit receipts, with downstream demand gradually following. However, the overall market mentality is stable and cautious. It is expected that in the short term, the urea market prices will continue to consolidate with fluctuations.