International Forex News - September 3

September 4, 2026

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Russell Investments Expects Nonfarm Payrolls to Bring Good News for the Federal Reserve

On September 3, BeiChen Lin, senior investment strategist at Russell Investments, said in a report that under the firm's baseline scenario, the Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged this year. Speaking before the release of the US employment report on Friday, he said: "However, if job growth is significantly above market expectations, for example more than twice the expected level, while inflation does not improve, this could prompt the Federal Reserve to give further consideration to rate increases. Taking into account the labor-market data to be released this week, we expect the labor market to be in a 'just right' condition, rather than overheating or becoming too cold. This would be good news for the Federal Reserve." Russell Investments considers US Treasury securities across the yield curve to offer attractive investment value.

Probability of the Federal Reserve Holding Rates Unchanged in September at 37.7%

On September 3, according to CME FedWatch, the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged through September is 37.7%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate increase is 62.3%. By October, the probability of unchanged rates is 27.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point increase is 55.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point increase is 17.2%.

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