International Potash: Prices in Brazil and the US are set to rise further

August 7, 2023

FDD

3963

Guide

Highlights at a glance

Potash prices in the U.S. and Brazil are rising amid rebounding demand and low inventories. Mosaic and Nutrien launched summer sales plans, signaling strong fall application needs. In Brazil, CIF prices have reached $360/ton and above, driven by tight supply and robust demand. A notable 12,000-ton purchase of Laotian potassium chloride by Romania’s Azochim marks a potential expansion of Laotian potash into non-Asian markets. Meanwhile, labor disruptions at Canada’s Port of Vancouver have ended, but rail delays persist, affecting deliveries. Indonesia’s Pupuk Indonesia is extending bid validity to July 31, which may set a regional price benchmark. The global potash shortage, coupled with higher crop prices and increased agricultural output, underpins the price surge. With India expected to announce new contract prices soon, Western markets remain more attractive than Southeast Asia, drawing supplier focus. Further price increases are anticipated in the U.S. and Brazil due to strong dema

International Potash: Prices in Brazil and the US are set to rise further

Last week, demand in the US and Brazil rebounded. Mosaic of the US and the Canadian fertilizer giant, Nutrien, launched their US summer sales plans earlier last week. Buyers warmly welcomed this, anticipating strong demand, as many had low inventories at the end of spring and need to replenish before applying in the fall.

In Brazil, prices continue to rise, with last week's CIF (Cost, Insurance, and Freight) prices ranging from $345 to $358 per ton. Current quotes are at $360 CIF and above.

Romanian importer, Azochim, purchased 12,000 tons of coarse-grained potassium chloride from Laos. This transaction might be the first time Laotian potassium chloride has been sold outside of Asia.

Union workers at the Port of Vancouver voted on a temporary agreement last week, ending a weeks-long deadlock over wages and working conditions. The leadership of the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) in Canada recommended its members accept the agreement after rejecting a four-year deal on July 18th. Port workers have now resumed work, although rail lines remain congested and slow.

The state-owned fertilizer company of Indonesia, Pupuk Indonesia, has asked bidders to extend the validity of their bids until July 31st. Any successful bids will provide a solid price benchmark for market participants in the region.

Reasons for the Price Increase: A global shortage of potash supply is one of the primary reasons for the price surge. Additionally, the rise in global agricultural production, increased crop prices, and farmers' demand for efficient fertilizers are also significant factors driving up the prices.

Market Outlook

Due to the anticipated strong demand, prices in Brazil and the US are expected to climb further. Recent supply issues in Canada will also push prices higher. In the East, India's new contract prices may be announced soon, drawing more products. Compared to the sluggish demand in Southeast Asia, prices in Western countries are more attractive, drawing more attention from suppliers.

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