July 10 International Forex News

Probability of the Fed Holding Rates Unchanged in July Stands at 74.9%

July 10: According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in July is 74.9%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 25.1%.

By September, the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged is 35.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 51.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point rate hike is 13.1%.

Bernstein Turns Bullish on Gold for the Second Half, Raises Target to USD 4,375/oz

July 10: Bernstein raised its 2026 gold price forecast, setting a second-half target of USD 4,375/oz and a full-year target of USD 4,533/oz.

The firm believes continued central bank gold purchases and the high probability that the Federal Reserve will not raise rates over the next 12 months will be the main factors supporting gold prices. Bernstein expects the Fed may raise rates at most one to two times, while pressure from gold ETF outflows is also expected to remain limited.

Bernstein noted that rising real interest rates in the second quarter of 2026 had previously caused gold prices to retreat from USD 4,650/oz to around USD 4,000/oz. However, as interest-rate expectations stabilize, gold still has upside potential.

The firm also warned that if inflation remains higher than expected and pushes the Fed toward more aggressive rate hikes, this would become the main risk to further gains in gold prices.