July 16 International Fertilizer and Agriculture News

Argentina Inflation Accelerates in June

Argentina’s inflation accelerated in June to 33.5% year-on-year, the highest level so far this year.

The consumer price index rose from 33.2% in May and 32.4% in April, matching January’s level, according to statistics agency Indec. The latest figure was down from 39.4% in June 2025.

Prices in the food and beverage category accounted for nearly one-quarter of the annual increase, rising 34.4% year-on-year in June versus 33.4% in May.

Transportation accounted for the second-largest share of the overall increase, continuing to be affected by Middle East Gulf conflict and rising 42.1% in June, unchanged from the previous month.

Prices in the hotel sector rose 36.7% in June, down from 37.3% the previous month, while housing and utilities costs were 47.8%, slightly down from 48.0% in May.

On a monthly basis, CPI rose 1.9% in June, below 2.1% in May and 2.6% in April. The peak this year was 3.4% in March.

President Javier Milei’s government forecasts inflation of 10% this year, but that target is unlikely to be achieved. The IMF forecasts inflation of 30.4% this year.

Argentina is the IMF’s largest debtor, with USD 42.5 billion in debt, accounting for more than one-third of the IMF’s total outstanding loans of USD 122.8 billion.

Brazil Corn: Export Market Remains Directionless

The port basis spread in Brazil’s corn export market remains lacking in a clear trend, and market participants are mostly showing little interest in grain.

Brazil’s corn export market faces a wide bid-ask gap. Buyers expect prices to fall further as the 2025-26 winter corn harvest progresses and on the expectation of abundant supply. At the same time, they are prioritizing cheaper Argentine grain.

Sellers, however, argue that prices should move in the opposite direction, and that record demand forecasts for the 2025-26 crop year will keep the market supported. The export market must raise bids to compete with the domestic sector, which is benefiting from the growth of the corn ethanol industry and is expected to post record-high corn consumption.

Sellers are also unwilling to sharply cut offers to attract international buyers. Farmers are receiving relatively high grain prices, while expensive transport and operating costs are squeezing profit margins.

Ukraine Grain Output Remains High as Harvest Accelerates

Ukrainian farmers have accelerated the 2026-27 winter grain harvest, with barley output reaching a record high and wheat output significantly above historical averages.

According to the Economy Ministry, as of July 13, farmers had harvested 318,650 hectares of barley, or 22% of the forecast area of 1.48 million hectares.

Barley output has reached 1.4 million tonnes, with an average yield of 4.41 t/ha, setting a record for this stage of the program and surpassing the 4.29 t/ha peak in 2021. This is also far above the 3.3-3.5 t/ha records seen during 2023-25.

Market participants said the rapid progress and high yields are likely to add physical supply to the domestic market immediately.

Wheat harvesting has reached 157,350 hectares, or 3% of the projected total of 5.13 million hectares, with output of 615,740 tonnes and an average yield of 3.91 t/ha. Wheat output is the second-highest ever recorded for this stage of the harvest, far above 2022-25 and second only to the bumper crop in 2021.

These preliminary results support Argus’ forecast of 24.1 million tonnes for the 2026-27 season, although high yields still raise concerns over potential protein dilution in winter wheat.

Rapeseed planting has reached 76,970 hectares, or 6% of the forecast area of 1.32 million hectares, with 149,070 tonnes collected and an average yield of 1.94 t/ha. Current output is among the lowest in the past five years for this stage, only higher than the 2.20-2.30 t/ha levels recorded in 2021 and 2024. However, given the limited progress of the harvest, these figures are not yet final.

Ukraine’s meteorological center expects a warm, dry weather front across most regions this week. Daytime temperatures are forecast to reach 32-35°C in the south and east, and 26-30°C in the central and western regions.

Dry conditions will facilitate rapid progress in the winter grain harvest across regions, although insufficient rainfall may reduce soil moisture for spring crops such as corn and sunflower, which are currently in critical growth stages.

Market participants said official data still reflect reporting delays, and real-time field progress is expected to be tighter.