July 20 International Fertilizer and Agriculture News

Brazilian Soybean Oil Exports May Exceed Expectations

Brazil’s soybean oil exports may exceed early-2026 forecasts, driven by stronger international demand, a trend that could lift prices and increase biodiesel production costs.

According to grain processors, soybean oil shipments in 2026 could total 2 million tonnes. That is above the 1.6 million tonnes forecast at the start of the year by the Brazilian Vegetable Oil Industry Association, Abiove. Data from the trade ministry Mdic show that soybean oil shipments reached 1 million tonnes in the first half of the year.

Even if exports end up above expectations, domestic soybean oil supply in Brazil is still expected to be sufficient to meet biodiesel and food-sector demand. But stronger competition for the product could reduce availability and push prices higher.

Soybean oil profitability is driving export interest. For vertically integrated companies operating across different stages of the supply chain, from feedstock production to fuel manufacturing, selling oil on the international market is more profitable than using it for biodiesel production.

Argus price assessments highlight the gap. Last week, soybean oil averaged BRL 5,958/tonne at Paranaguá port, while biodiesel contracts in the Paraná-Santa Catarina region averaged BRL 5,628/tonne. The same pattern is seen in Mato Grosso, where soybean oil averaged BRL 5,725/tonne, while biodiesel contracts in the north were BRL 5,405/tonne and in the south BRL 5,551/tonne.

Soybean crushers are also finding it difficult to negotiate soybean oil prices with biodiesel producers that are not vertically integrated or lack enough capacity to fully meet demand. According to the sector, these plants are pushing for lower prices in counteroffers because their margins on bi-monthly biodiesel supply contracts are thin.

Although biodiesel plants remain resistant to higher soybean oil prices, the sector is still the crushers’ largest market. Argus estimates that in 2025, about 6.7 million tonnes, or 56% of Brazil’s soybean oil output, will be used for biodiesel production. Exports in the same period totaled 1.3 million tonnes, or nearly 11% of output, according to Abiove.

International Demand

Rising international demand for Brazilian soybean oil comes as Indonesia and Malaysia move to increase mandatory biodiesel blending rates, putting Brazil on the radar of vegetable oil buyers.

In Indonesia, the biodiesel blend in fossil fuels has been raised from 40% to 50%. This is likely to boost domestic palm oil consumption and reduce supply available to the international market. The higher blending requirement comes as Indonesian palm oil output is expected to enter a declining trend, with key challenges including aging trees, insufficient replanting, and falling yields.

Malaysia, another major palm oil producer, is also considering raising the mandatory biodiesel blend in diesel to 50%. The country is working toward gradually increasing the biofuel share in road transport to 30% by 2030. The current national mandatory blend is 10%, although some regions have already adopted a 20% blend.

OCP and Koch Deepen Phosphate Partnership

Morocco’s leading phosphate producer OCP Nutricrops said it has sold a 50% stake in one production unit to U.S. trading firm Koch Ag & Energy Solutions.

The deal will create a 50:50 operating joint venture covering Jorf Fertilizers Company 1, or JFC 1, at Jorf Lasfar, with a nameplate capacity of 1.2 million tonnes per year of phosphate-based fertilizers. OCP said this will bring its annual combined capacity with Koch joint ventures to 2.5 million tonnes, following the sale of 50% of Jorf Fertilizers III, renamed Kofert, to Koch in March 2022.

JFC products will be sold on the global market. The announcement came just as the U.S. suspended countervailing duties on Moroccan phosphate imports for eight months, reopening the U.S. market to OCP.

JFC 1 is one of several production units that OCP operates within its Jorf Lasfar complex. According to Argus, OCP ran at roughly 50% of total capacity in June, mainly due to a lack of sulfur. The producer reportedly now has enough sulfur to theoretically operate at 100% capacity during July and August.

But because tensions between Iran and the United States have escalated again, Kazakh sulfur has still not reached the market, and maintaining sulfur inventories remains a challenge for all producers.

Egypt’s NCIC Launches Tender to Sell DAP, SSP and SOP

Egyptian fertilizer producer NCIC has launched a sales tender, with the deadline set for July 20. It is offering the following:

• 20,000 tonnes DAP
• 15,000 tonnes SSP
• 500 tonnes water-soluble SOP

According to reports, 10,000 tonnes out of 30,000 tonnes were sold in the July 1 tender for DAP at $872/tonne, and all 30,000 tonnes of SSP were sold in the same tender at $260/tonne. In a June 24 tender, 500 tonnes of SOP were sold at an ex-works price of $740/tonne on July 1.

DAP and SSP will be sold in bulk FOB, and NCIC said all cargoes will be ready at Damietta Port. Cargoes must be loaded within 37 days.

SOP will be sold in 25 kg bags on an ex-works basis from NCIC’s Fayoum plant.