July 20 International Forex News

Key Events and Data to Watch Next Week

The ECB rate decision is due, and earnings from Google, Intel, Tesla and other tech names will arrive in quick succession.

1. Monday:

   1. Data: China 1-year and 5-year LPR; Germany June PPI; Canada June CPI; U.S. June Conference Board leading index m/m; China June year-to-date national installed power generation capacity, and y/y growth in year-to-date national installed power generation capacity.
   2. Events: The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on industrial and information technology development in the first half of 2026; the annual ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting will be held.
   3. Holiday: Tokyo Stock Exchange closed for Marine Day.
   4. Earnings: AMC Entertainment (AMC.N).

2. Tuesday:

   1. Data: Switzerland June trade balance; U.K. May 3-month ILO unemployment rate, June public sector net borrowing, June unemployment rate, June claimant count change; Germany July ZEW economic sentiment index; euro area July ZEW economic sentiment index; U.S. weekly ADP employment change.
   2. Events: The ECB releases its bank lending survey; the State Council Information Office holds a press conference on accelerating the building of a transportation powerhouse and improving the modern integrated transport system.
   3. Earnings: Charles Schwab (SCHW.N), General Motors (GM.N), Novartis (NVS.N), and others.

3. Wednesday:

   1. Data: U.S. weekly API crude oil inventories; U.K. June CPI m/m, June retail price index m/m; U.S. weekly EIA crude oil inventories, EIA Cushing crude inventories, and Cushing crude inventories.
   2. Events: The State Council Information Office holds a press conference on supporting the high-quality start of the 15th Five-Year Plan through customs modernization; the 2026 International Low-Altitude Economy Expo will be held from July 22 to 25; the 2026 Shanghai Nuclear Energy Sustainable Development Conference and Shanghai International Nuclear Energy Industry Expo will be held from July 22 to 24; Samsung Galaxy will hold its global product launch. NYMEX August WTI futures will roll: last pit trade ends at 2:30 a.m. on July 22, and last electronic trade ends at 5:00 a.m.; please pay attention to exchange expiry notices and manage rollover risk. In addition, some trading platforms usually set U.S. crude contract expiry one day earlier than NYMEX official timing, so please be careful.
   3. Earnings: Alphabet (GOOG.O), Tesla (TSLA.O), AT&T (T.N), IBM (IBM.N), Texas Instruments (TXN.O), and others.

4. Thursday:

   1. Data: China June share of global payments in RMB via SWIFT; Australia June seasonally adjusted unemployment rate; U.K. July CBI industrial orders balance; euro area ECB deposit facility rate and main refinancing rate through July 23; Canada May retail sales m/m; U.S. weekly initial jobless claims; euro area July preliminary consumer confidence index; U.S. weekly EIA natural gas inventories.
   2. Events: The ECB announces its rate decision, and President Lagarde holds a monetary policy press conference.
   3. Earnings: Comcast (CMCSA.O), Thermo Fisher (TMO.N), American Airlines (AAL.O), Intel (INTC.O), and others.

5. Friday:

   1. Data: U.K. July GfK consumer confidence index; Japan June core CPI y/y; Germany August GfK consumer confidence index; U.K. June seasonally adjusted retail sales m/m; France July manufacturing PMI flash; Germany July manufacturing PMI flash; euro area July manufacturing PMI flash; U.K. July manufacturing PMI flash and services PMI flash; U.S. July S&P Global manufacturing PMI flash and services PMI flash; U.S. June new home sales annualized.
   2. Events: The ECB releases its Survey of Professional Forecasters; ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane speaks; AMD Advancing AI conference will be held in San Francisco on July 22-23.
   3. Earnings: Verizon (VZ.N), American Express (AXP.N), and others.

6. Saturday:

   1. Data: U.S. weekly total oil rig count.

U.S. Long-Term Unemployment Rises, Nearly 2 Million Have Been Unable to Find Work for at Least Six Months

According to The Wall Street Journal, the U.S. labor market remains resilient by most key indicators. However, nearly 2 million Americans have been unemployed for at least six months. U.S. Department of Labor data show that in June, long-term unemployed people, defined as those out of work for 27 weeks or more, accounted for 27.3% of all unemployed people, up 4 percentage points from a year earlier. That is close to the highest level since late 2021.

Because the overall unemployment rate remains low, the long-term unemployed population is still not large enough to materially shock the economy. But analysts say its spillover effects are accumulating. Preston Mui, senior economist at Employ America, said: “Over the past few years we have not seen large-scale layoffs, so short-term unemployment has remained relatively stable. But at the same time, hiring activity has declined quite noticeably.”

Even if some long-term unemployed workers find jobs again, a weak hiring environment means more people continue to enter the long-term unemployment pool, keeping the figure elevated.

Dollar Index Edges Higher on July 17

The U.S. dollar index rose slightly on July 17. The index, which measures the dollar against six major currencies, closed at 100.765, slightly above the previous session’s 100.763.

At the New York close, 1 euro was worth 1.1436 dollars, down from 1.1438 the previous day; 1 British pound was worth 1.3454 dollars, down from 1.3470; 1 dollar was worth 162.45 yen, up from 162.39; 1 dollar was worth 0.8075 Swiss franc, down from 0.8089; 1 dollar was worth 1.4011 Canadian dollars, down from 1.4048; and 1 dollar was worth 9.6497 Swedish krona, down slightly from 9.6499.