Phosphate Fertilizer Daily Review, June 15: Easing Geopolitical Tensions Pressure Sulfur, While Phosphate Fertilizer Cost Pressure Remains

Monoammonium Phosphate Price Index

According to FDD data calculations, on June 15, China’s domestic 55% powdered MAP index stood at 4,370.00, up 0.14% from the previous working day. The 55% granular MAP index stood at 4,450.00, up 1.14% from the previous working day. The 58% powdered MAP index stood at 4,676.67, unchanged from the previous working day.

MAP Market Analysis and Forecast

Today, China’s domestic monoammonium phosphate market fluctuated with a firm bias. On the producer side, most plants were still executing previous orders. Many producers continued to suspend new order-taking and quotations, while traders maintained a firm and upward pricing stance. Quotations edged higher, tradable spot supply remained tight, and actual transactions were negotiated on a case-by-case basis.

On the market side, sentiment was slightly affected by the decline in sulfur prices from high levels. On the demand side, downstream compound fertilizer producers showed moderate purchasing enthusiasm and mainly procured based on immediate demand. Market sentiment remained cautious, and transactions were mostly negotiated as needed.

On the raw material side, over the weekend, the United States and Iran reached an agreement on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. International crude oil futures fell to multi-month lows, market risk sentiment eased, and short-term bearish expectations for sulfur increased. Sulfur prices fell from high levels today, while port inventories remained low. Sulfuric acid prices fluctuated at elevated levels, with some regional increases. Phosphate rock prices remained stable at high levels. Cost pressure continued to increase, and producers showed limited willingness to reduce prices.

Overall, supported by costs and tight supply, the MAP market is expected to remain firm at high levels in the short term. Going forward, close attention should be paid to raw material trends, the pace of downstream fertilizer stocking, and changes in the international geopolitical environment.

Diammonium Phosphate Price Index

According to FDD data calculations, on June 15, China’s domestic mainstream 64% granular DAP index stood at 4,413.33, up 0.19% from the previous working day. The 60% brown DAP index stood at 4,350.00, unchanged from the previous working day. The 57% DAP index stood at 4,300.00, up 0.58% from the previous working day.

DAP Market Analysis and Forecast

Today, China’s domestic diammonium phosphate market remained in a consolidation and wait-and-see pattern. On the producer side, some companies mainly focused on shipping previous pending orders. Raw material prices remained high, production cost pressure was still significant, and actual orders continued to be negotiated.

On the market side, although raw material prices declined, costs still remained at high levels. Market participants maintained a cautious wait-and-see stance, and the trading atmosphere was largely stalemated and subdued.

On the demand side, the market is still in the traditional fertilizer demand gap period. Domestic autumn fertilizer stocking has not yet started on a large scale. Downstream compound fertilizer plants mostly maintained low operating rates, and procurement was limited to small volumes for daily rigid demand. Grassroots distributors remained cautious, with limited bulk stocking activity. Spot transactions were mainly scattered small orders, and overall trading activity was weak.

On the raw material side, over the weekend, the United States and Iran reached an agreement on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. International crude oil futures fell to multi-month lows, market risk sentiment eased, and short-term bearish expectations for sulfur increased. Sulfur prices fell from high levels today, while port inventories remained low. Sulfuric acid prices fluctuated at elevated levels, with some regional increases. Phosphate rock prices remained stable at high levels. High raw material costs continued to intensify cost pressure and provided strong support to the market.

Overall, the DAP market is expected to continue consolidating in the short term. Going forward, key factors to watch include changes in raw material prices, downstream demand follow-up, and later adjustments to export policies.

Sulfur Market Prices

According to FDD data calculations, on June 15, granular sulfur at Zhenjiang Port was priced at 9,500.00, down 17.03% from the previous working day. Granular sulfur at Dafeng Port was priced at 9,480.00, down 17.06% from the previous working day. Powder/lump sulfur at Zhenjiang Port was priced at 9,450.00, down 17.11% from the previous working day. Powder/lump sulfur at Dafeng Port was priced at 9,430.00, down 17.14% from the previous working day. Solid sulfur in East China was priced at 9,300.00, unchanged from the previous working day. Liquid sulfur in East China was priced at 9,170.00, unchanged from the previous working day.

Sulfur Market Analysis and Forecast

Today, the sulfur market weakened and consolidated under the impact of geopolitical developments, with overall trading sentiment turning cautious. Over the weekend, the United States and Iran reached a phased agreement on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and Trump confirmed that the U.S.-Iran agreement was “now complete” and that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen.

Affected by this, international crude oil futures settlement prices fell to multi-month lows, market risk sentiment declined significantly, and short-term bearish expectations for sulfur increased. This morning, mainstream quotations for imported granular sulfur moved down to relatively low levels, and small-volume low-price negotiations were heard in the market. Traders and downstream buyers generally slowed their transaction pace, and the overall market remained dominated by a wait-and-see attitude.

The Shandong liquid sulfur market also moved lower in volatile consolidation today. Auction transaction prices at local refineries fell from last weekend’s high levels. Last week, Shandong liquid sulfur prices continued rising, with weekend transaction prices briefly reaching relatively high levels. However, today’s refinery auction prices were adjusted down significantly, reflecting the impact of the U.S.-Iran agreement on short-term market expectations.

At present, the market is flooded with news related to navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Geopolitical uncertainty has increased market uncertainty, while industry participants’ wait-and-see sentiment has continued to strengthen. Purchasing willingness has weakened notably, and mainstream prices in the Shandong liquid sulfur market have retreated to relatively low levels.

From a supply-demand fundamentals perspective, the sulfur market is still being shaped by multiple factors. On the supply side, domestic port inventories remain low compared with the same period in recent years and continue to decline. Tradable resources are generally tight, which still provides some support to prices. However, the tight-supply narrative has already been largely priced in during the previous rally, and marginal upward momentum has weakened.

On the demand side, operating loads at downstream MAP and DAP producers remain relatively low compared with recent years. Affected by high raw material prices and off-season demand, most producers are maintaining cautious procurement strategies, and their ability to absorb material based on rigid demand is limited.

Against this backdrop, the market lacks clear upward drivers in the short term, while expectations of easing geopolitical risks are releasing the risk premium accumulated earlier. The sulfur market may continue to fluctuate with a weaker bias in the short term. In the afternoon session, attention should be paid to auctions of domestic resources, as the results will provide further guidance for short-term market direction.

Phosphate Fertilizer Market Updates

On June 15, the Anhui MAP market quoted 55% powdered MAP at around RMB 4,400-4,500/mt delivered, with quotations stable.

On June 15, the Northeast China MAP market quoted 55% powdered MAP at around RMB 4,250/mt delivered, with quotations stable.

On June 15, the Henan MAP market quoted 55% powdered MAP at around RMB 4,380-4,450/mt delivered, with quotations stable.

On June 15, the Hubei MAP market quoted mainstream 55% powdered MAP ex-works at around RMB 4,200-4,450/mt, with quotations raised.

On June 15, the Jiangsu MAP market quoted 55% powdered MAP at around RMB 4,400-4,480/mt delivered, with quotations stable.

On June 15, the Shandong MAP market quoted 55% powdered MAP at around RMB 4,400-4,500/mt delivered, with quotations stable.

On June 15, the Sichuan MAP market quoted 55% powdered MAP at around RMB 4,150/mt delivered, with quotations stable.

On June 15, the Yunnan MAP market quoted 55% powdered MAP ex-works at around RMB 4,200-4,250/mt, with quotations raised.

On June 15, in Shaanxi, 60% DAP was quoted at RMB 4,300-4,350/mt ex-works for self-pickup, with quotations stable.

On June 15, in Northeast China, 64% DAP was quoted at RMB 4,550-4,600/mt ex-works for self-pickup, with quotations stable.

On June 15, in Hebei, 64% DAP was quoted at RMB 4,200-4,250/mt ex-warehouse for self-pickup, with quotations stable. 57% DAP was quoted at RMB 4,300-4,350/mt delivered to station for self-pickup, with quotations stable.

On June 15, in Hubei, 64% DAP was quoted at RMB 4,400-4,450/mt ex-works for self-pickup, with quotations stable. 57% DAP was quoted at RMB 3,600-3,650/mt ex-works for self-pickup, with quotations stable.

On June 15, in Shandong, 64% DAP was quoted at RMB 4,700-4,800/mt ex-warehouse for self-pickup, with quotations raised. 57% DAP was quoted at RMB 4,300-4,380/mt at station for self-pickup, with quotations raised.

On June 15, the Yunnan DAP market had ended, with no current quotations available.