Pesticide Daily Review, June 16: Caution and Wait-and-See Sentiment Prevail

June 17, 2026, 9:38 AM

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Guide

Highlights at a glance

The pesticide market reflects persistent weak sentiments with price divergence across categories. Transactions are driven by rigid demand, while easing geopolitical tensions reduce cost-driven momentum. Short-term supply-demand mismatches support some categories, but downstream buyers resist high prices due to transmission issues. In international markets, stronger trade flows toward China depend on seasonal demand and stocking by traders. Geopolitical stability, easing Middle East tensions, and reduced sulfur substitution premiums are impacting specific markets like yellow phosphorus, with cautious sentiment among market participants. Price reductions are widespread across herbicides, insecticides, and fungicides, with the wait-and-see attitude dominating market behavior in the short term.

The pesticide market remained generally weak in sentiment, with prices fluctuating and diverging across product categories. Transactions were mainly driven by rigid demand, while the cost-upside logic may slow as geopolitical tensions ease.

Some products still received support from short-term supply-demand mismatches. However, due to transmission issues across the industrial chain, high prices continued to trigger negative feedback from downstream buyers. The market is currently waiting to see whether end-user demand can provide further support.

In the international market, expectations remain for stronger trade flows toward China. However, the actual strength of overseas demand will depend more on seasonal demand patterns in destination markets and the stocking willingness of international traders. Overall, this still provides medium- to long-term support for market sentiment.

In the short term, tensions in the Middle East have shown signs of easing, as the United States and Iran have reportedly reached a preliminary memorandum of understanding. The geopolitical risk premium has fallen sharply. However, the market is still watching whether navigation through the Strait of Hormuz can be substantially restored. Meanwhile, supply disruptions in the petrochemical value chain remain difficult to reverse in the short term. Cost-driven momentum may slow, but bottom support is likely to remain.

Overall, market participants remain cautious. Price increases in some upstream products are still facing resistance in downstream transmission, upward momentum has slowed, and the wait-and-see atmosphere remains evident. Going forward, attention should be paid to changes in geopolitical sentiment, export strength, and seasonal demand.

Market Analysis

Herbicides

The herbicide market atmosphere continued to weaken. Earlier inventory accumulation among traders has led to some low-price selling. Although cost increases caused by geopolitical risks remain present, expectations have eased after signs of a tentative peace outlook. At the same time, insufficient downstream demand has made it difficult to generate new market momentum.

In the United States, elemental phosphorus and glyphosate-based herbicides have been listed as critical defense materials under the Defense Production Act, requiring priority protection of domestic supply. This move continues to provide some support to the Chinese domestic market.

Overall, downstream buyers are mainly purchasing based on rigid demand. As seasonal demand support weakens in the short term, market sentiment continues to soften. Going forward, attention should be paid to whether export conditions improve and how geopolitical sentiment evolves.

Yellow Phosphorus

The yellow phosphorus market remained in a high-level tug-of-war, while trading sentiment weakened somewhat. At present, upstream factory inventory pressure is limited. Strong guidance prices from yellow phosphorus producers continue to support the market, and upstream producers still show a willingness to hold prices firm. Short-term prices therefore remain supported.

However, downstream products remain limited in their ability to follow price increases, and the transmission of cost pressure remains constrained. In addition, as Middle East geopolitical tensions ease, the decline in sulfur prices has weakened the substitution premium of thermal-process phosphoric acid to some extent. The market is currently cautious and wait-and-see. If trading sentiment continues to weaken, prices may enter another correction phase.