Phosphate Fertilizer Monthly Review: Prices Rise and Stabilize Under Supply Guarantee Measures

Phosphate Fertilizer Market Price Analysis and Forecast

Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP) Market Price Analysis

According to Feidoodoo data: As of November 29, 2023, the domestic 55% powder MAP index was 3483.75, up by 190.00 compared to the beginning of the month, a 5.77% increase; the 55% granule index was 3400.00, up by 580.00, a 20.57% increase; the 58% powder index was 3683.33, up by 183.33, a 5.24% increase.

This month, domestic MAP market prices initially rose and then fell, overall showing an upward trend. Initially, MAP prices were firm. Most MAP factories had over a month's worth of pending orders, expected to be executed until early next month. Many paused quoting, only accepting limited orders from downstream core customer factories. With no pressure on shipments and support from pending orders, factories had a strong intent to hold prices, resulting in an upward price trend. However, due to high prices, the market sentiment gradually became more rational and cautious.

Mid-month, MAP prices stabilized during the Phosphorus Compound Fertilizer Conference, with the market awaiting guidance. After the conference, the association included supply guarantee and stable pricing in the social responsibility and credit evaluation indicators, affecting the market and putting upward pressure on MAP prices. Factories continued to maintain firm prices under the support of some pending orders and a tight supply of raw phosphate rock.

By the end of the month, the MAP market trend was stable but weak. New orders slowed down, primarily executing pre-received orders. The demand for MAP in the compound fertilizer market weakened, leading to a slight decrease in prices.

Diammonium Phosphate (DAP) Market Price Analysis

According to Feidoodoo data: As of November 29, 2023, the domestic 64% granule DAP index was 3880.00, up by 75.00 compared to the end of last month, a 1.97% increase; the 60% brown index was 3670.00, up by 170.00, a 4.86% increase; the 57% content DAP index was 3610.00, up by 145.00, a 4.18% increase.

This month, domestic DAP market prices generally rose, with a slight decrease towards the end. Initially, market sentiment was positive, leading to a continuous upward trend. With limited stock held by merchants and positive market expectations, the market supply was hard to find. Mid-month, during the Phosphorus Compound Fertilizer Conference, the DAP market awaited clear guidance, leading to a watchful market sentiment. However, the overall tight supply situation remained, limiting the potential for price decreases.

Entering the end of the month, despite low purchasing enthusiasm, stable operation was maintained due to sufficient pre-received orders and raw material price support.

Phosphate Fertilizer Market Forecast

Regarding raw materials, phosphate rock prices are weak, with a standoff in the market. The operating rate of phosphate mines is decreasing, demand is cold, and the market is somewhat sluggish. With sufficient market supply, upward price pressure is expected to continue. Synthetic ammonia prices decreased in the second half of the month, leading to a bearish market sentiment. The sulfur market trended weakly, with most transactions involving low-priced goods. Overall, cost support indicates a downward adjustment in phosphate fertilizer market prices for the next month, with high raw material prices gradually weakening.

In terms of supply and demand, the phosphate fertilizer market production decreased, but high operational loads at enterprises are expected to continue. Market transaction volume was limited, with a watchful purchasing sentiment downstream. Overall, the market sentiment was cautious, with limited on-demand purchases.

Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Industry Operation

Domestic MAP Industry Operation

As of November 24, 2023, the domestic MAP industry's operating rate was about 57.92%, a 4.48% increase month-over-month, and an 11.43% increase year-over-year. The MAP industry's operating rate rose and remained above last year's level.

Domestic DAP Industry Operation

As of November 24, 2023, the domestic DAP industry's operating rate was about 49.26%, a 0.80% decrease month-over-month, and a 4.56% increase year-over-year. The DAP industry's operating rate fell within the month but remained above last year's level.

Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Production Trend

Domestic MAP Production Trend

According to Feidoodoo data, as of November 24, the domestic MAP monthly production was 891,300 tons, a decrease of 28,000 tons month-over-month, a 3.05% decrease, and a 20.54% increase year-over-year.

Domestic DAP Production Trend

As of November 24, the domestic DAP monthly production was about 985,100 tons, a decrease of 70,800 tons month-over-month, a 6.71% decrease, and a 13.66% increase year-over-year.

Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Import-Export Data

Domestic MAP Export Data

According to customs data, in October 2023, China exported 159,000 tons of MAP, a 10.40% decrease year-over-year and an 81.66% increase month-over-month, with an average export price of 498.34 USD/ton. From January to October 2023, the cumulative export total was 1.70 million tons, a 1.04% increase year-over-year.

Domestic MAP Import Data

In October 2023, China imported 0.20 tons of MAP, a 99.94% decrease year-over-year and a 33.33% increase month-over-month, with an average import price of 6.87 USD/ton. From January to October 2023, the cumulative import total was 401.19 tons, a 10.82% increase year-over-year.

Domestic DAP Export Data

In October 2023, China exported 440,800 tons of DAP, a 12.45% decrease year-over-year and a 21.70% increase month-over-month, with an average export price of 540.17 USD/ton. From January to October 2023, the cumulative export total was 4.05 million tons, a 29.67% increase year-over-year.

Domestic DAP Import Data

In October 2023, China imported 0.55 tons of DAP, a 177.00% increase year-over-year and a 97.86% increase month-over-month, with an average import price of 5359.21 USD/ton. From January to October 2023, the cumulative import total was about 25.38 tons, a 92.26% decrease year-over-year.

Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Apparent Consumption Data

Domestic MAP Apparent Consumption Data

In October 2023, China's apparent MAP consumption was 760,300 tons, a 21.88% decrease month-over-month and a 31.02% increase year-over-year. From January to October 2023, the cumulative apparent consumption was 6.93 million tons, a 2.46% increase year-over-year.

Domestic DAP Apparent Consumption Data

In October 2023, China's apparent DAP consumption was 615,100 tons, a 39.51% decrease month-over-month and a 43.55% increase year-over-year. From January to October 2023, the cumulative apparent consumption was 7.60 million tons, a 2.97% increase year-over-year.

Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Port Inventory Trend

Domestic MAP Port Inventory Trend

As of November 24, the domestic MAP market's main port inventory was 45,100 tons, a 4.53% decrease month-over-month, and a 64.93% decrease year-over-year; the domestic MAP market's main port inventory decreased within the month.

Domestic DAP Port Inventory Trend

As of November 24, the domestic DAP market's main port inventory was 247,200 tons, a 7.54% increase month-over-month, and a 21.24% increase year-over-year; the domestic DAP market's main port inventory increased within the month.