Phosphate Fertilizer Weekly: Continued Flat Market Atmosphere, Industry Operating Rate Decreases

Phosphate Fertilizer Market Analysis:

Price Analysis of Phosphate Fertilizers:

Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP): According to Feiduoduo data, this week, the average price index for 55% powdered MAP was 3379.38, a decrease of 18.63 from last week, down by 0.55%; the average price index for 55% granular MAP was 3400.00, stable from last week; the average price index for 58% powdered MAP was 3633.33, stable from last week.

This week, the MAP market prices continued a trend of stability with minor decreases. Factories continued to pause quoting and mostly operated stably. On the factory side, they focused on executing previous pending orders and paused new quotes, with new order intake not ideal, and a continuous reduction in pending orders, leading to gradually increasing sales pressure. Some factories have begun to lower their quotes, with actual transactions remaining negotiable. On the market side, the market continued to operate weakly with limited transactions and following orders, leading to a decrease in industry operating rates under subdued demand. On the demand side, downstream demand was weak, with a general atmosphere for goods movement and industrial demand for compound fertilizers remaining slow, leading to a decrease in recent operating rates and a lack of demand follow-up.

Diammonium Phosphate (DAP): According to Feiduoduo data, this week, the average price index for 64% granular DAP was 3871.67, down by 8.33 from last week, a decrease of 0.21%; the average price index for 60% brown DAP was 3460.00, down by 16.00 from last week, a decrease of 0.46%; the average price index for 57% DAP was 3576.50, down by 13.50 from last week, a decrease of 0.38%.

This week, DAP market prices continued a minor downward adjustment with limited transactions. On the factory side, most manufacturers had sufficient pre-received orders, mainly executing previous orders and actively shipping previous pre-received orders. With few new order transactions at factories, manufacturers implemented phased order acceptance, with current traders slightly loosening and lowering prices for shipments, yet still higher than factory prices. On the market side, the general goods movement continued a flat transaction atmosphere and a stagnant running atmosphere. On the supply side, DAP industry unit operating rates continued to decrease, leading to a tight supply of goods arriving in the market. On the demand side, winter storage demand continued to be weak, with agricultural demand almost stagnant, and observers' sentiment still strong, leading to temporarily weak demand.

Operating Rates in the Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Industry:

MAP Industry Operating Rate in China:
According to Feiduoduo data, this week, the operating rate in the domestic MAP industry was about 53.28%, down by 5.91% from last week, and down by 3.45% year-on-year; the MAP industry's operating rate decreased within the week, lower than the same period last year.

DAP Industry Operating Rate in China:
According to Feiduoduo data, this week, the operating rate in the domestic DAP industry was about 45.71%, down by 7.73% from last week, and up by 0.66% year-on-year; the DAP industry's operating rate decreased within the week, but still higher than the same period last year.

Weekly Production Trends in the Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Industry:

MAP Weekly Production Trend in China:
According to Feiduoduo data, this week, domestic MAP production was about 208,100 tons, down by 9.99% from last week, and down by 7.06% year-on-year; domestic MAP weekly production decreased within the week, lower than the same period last year.

DAP Weekly Production Trend in China:
According to Feiduoduo data, this week, domestic DAP production was about 229,700 tons, down by 14.45% from last week, and up by 2.45% year-on-year; domestic DAP weekly production decreased within the week, but still higher than the same period last year.

Port Inventory Trends in the Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Industry:

MAP Port Inventory Trend in China:
According to Feiduoduo data, this week, domestic MAP port inventory was about 79,000 tons, stable from last week, and down by 45.44% year-on-year.

DAP Port Inventory Trend in China:
According to Feiduoduo data, this week, domestic DAP port inventory was about 163,200 tons, down by 5.77% from last week, and down by 20.85% year-on-year.

Future Outlook for the Phosphate Fertilizer Market:

MAP: Overall, the current MAP market has no clear quotes, with market prices showing confusion, cautious downstream purchasing, and an observational demand follow-up. With poor order reception and a decrease in operating rates, it is expected that next week, MAP market prices will continue to maintain a trend of stability with minor decreases.

DAP: Overall, although the DAP market's operating rate continues to decrease, creating a certain positive aspect, the market demand is weak, and downstream demand follow-up is slow. It is expected that next week, DAP market prices will continue to be stagnant and organized.