Contents

1. Phosphate Fertilizer Market Analysis
   1.1 Phosphate Fertilizer Market Price Analysis

2. Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Industry Operating Conditions
   2.1 Domestic MAP Industry Operating Conditions
   2.2 Domestic DAP Industry Operating Conditions

3. Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Weekly Output Trends
   3.1 Domestic MAP Weekly Output Trend
   3.2 Domestic DAP Weekly Output Trend

4. Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Port Inventory Trends
   4.1 Domestic MAP Port Inventory Trend
   4.2 Domestic DAP Port Inventory Trend

5. Phosphate Fertilizer Market Outlook

6. Sulfur Market Analysis
   6.1 Sulfur Market Price Analysis

7. Domestic Sulfur Port Inventory Analysis

8. Domestic Sulfur Output Analysis
   8.1 National Sulfur Output Analysis
   8.2 East China Sulfur Output Analysis
   8.3 East China Capacity Utilization
   8.4 Solid Sulfur Arrivals

01 Phosphate Fertilizer Market Analysis

1.1 Phosphate Fertilizer Market Price Analysis

Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP)

This week, the domestic MAP market remained stable at a high level, with market prices edging down slightly and actual transactions negotiated.

On the cost side, the U.S.-Iran conflict continued to escalate, with both sides signaling a possible resumption of war and again claiming mutual blockade risks around the Strait of Hormuz. This provided both cost and sentiment support to China’s domestic sulfur market. Domestic sulfur prices remained high and firm, while port inventories stayed at low levels. Sulfuric acid prices fluctuated at high levels, and phosphate rock prices remained high and stable. With multiple raw material prices staying elevated, MAP producers continued to face relatively heavy cost pressure.

On the demand side, the downstream compound fertilizer terminal market started slowly. Some enterprises had already completed part of their raw material stocking earlier, while willingness to purchase at high prices remained weak. In addition, weather factors kept plant operating loads low. Actual procurement was mainly limited to small volumes for need-based demand, and market sentiment remained cautious.

Overall, this week the MAP market stayed in a stalemate between high cost support and temporarily weak demand, with the price center remaining stable at a high level.

According to FDD data calculations, this week, the average 55% powder MAP price index was 4,428.25, down 6.75 from last week, a week-on-week decrease of 0.15%; the average 55% granular MAP price index was 4,450.00, flat from last week, with a week-on-week increase of 0.00%; the average 58% powder MAP price index was 4,710.00, flat from last week, with a week-on-week increase of 0.00%.

Diammonium Phosphate (DAP)

This week, the domestic DAP market operated in consolidation at a high level.

On the cost side, the U.S.-Iran conflict continued to expand, with both sides signaling a possible resumption of war and again claiming mutual blockade risks around the Strait of Hormuz. This provided cost and sentiment support to China’s domestic sulfur market. Domestic sulfur prices remained high and firm, while port inventories continued to run at low levels. The sulfuric acid market operated at high levels, and phosphate rock prices also remained high. With multiple raw material prices staying elevated, DAP producers continued to face relatively heavy cost pressure, and the industry remained in a long-term cost-inversion state.

On the demand side, performance remained sluggish. Demand is currently in the traditional off-season for fertilizer use, while domestic autumn planting fertilizer preparation has not yet started on a concentrated basis. Downstream compound fertilizer plants mostly maintained low operating rates, with procurement limited to small-volume replenishment for routine rigid demand. Frequent rainy weather recently further cooled the overall transaction atmosphere.

Overall, this week the DAP market relied on high costs to defend the price floor, but weak off-season demand left the market without upward momentum. The market remained in a prolonged stalemate with quoted prices but limited actual transactions.

According to FDD data calculations, this week, the average 64% granular DAP price index was 4,571.67, flat from last week, with a week-on-week increase of 0.00%; the average 60% brown DAP price index was 4,350.00, flat from last week; the average 57% DAP price index was 4,432.50, flat from last week, with a week-on-week increase of 0.00%.

02 Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Industry Operating Conditions

2.1 Domestic MAP Industry Operating Conditions

According to FDD statistics, this week, the domestic MAP industry operating rate was approximately 56.50%, down 1.19 percentage points from last week and down 2.67 percentage points year on year. The MAP industry operating rate declined slightly during the week and was lower than the same period last year.

2.2 Domestic DAP Industry Operating Conditions

According to FDD statistics, this week, the domestic DAP industry operating rate was approximately 35.96%, up 1.11 percentage points from last week and down 19.68 percentage points year on year. The DAP industry operating rate rose during the week but remained lower than the same period last year.

03 Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Weekly Output Trends

3.1 Domestic MAP Weekly Output Trend

According to FDD statistics, this week, domestic MAP output was approximately 227,200 tonnes, down 1.22% from last week and down 2.82% year on year. Domestic MAP weekly output decreased during the week and was lower than the same period last year.

3.2 Domestic DAP Weekly Output Trend

According to FDD statistics, this week, domestic DAP output was approximately 174,800 tonnes, up 3.19% from last week and down 34.43% year on year. Domestic DAP weekly output increased during the week but remained lower than the same period last year.

04 Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Port Inventory Trends

4.1 Domestic MAP Port Inventory Trend

According to FDD statistics, this week, inventory at major domestic MAP market ports was approximately 0 tonnes, unchanged from last week.

4.2 Domestic DAP Port Inventory Trend

According to FDD statistics, this week, inventory at major domestic DAP market ports was approximately 29,500 tonnes, unchanged from last week.

05 Phosphate Fertilizer Market Outlook

MAP

Looking ahead, the domestic MAP market is expected to remain in a high-level stalemate in the short term and move steadily to slightly stronger in the medium term. Downside room is limited, and the market is expected to recover with fluctuations as autumn fertilizer preparation advances.

Cost support remains firm. Raw materials such as phosphate rock and sulfur are generally firm, production costs remain under pressure at high levels, and producers have strong willingness to hold prices. This effectively limits deep declines and provides solid bottom support.

Supply is generally tight. Industry operating rates remain low, enterprises mostly produce based on orders and control production to support prices, spot market availability is limited, and low-priced supply is gradually being cleared. There is no obvious supply pressure in the market.

Demand is expected to improve at the margin. The market is currently in the transition period between summer and autumn fertilizer demand, with downstream buyers mainly replenishing for rigid demand and overall trading relatively light. Later, autumn fertilizer preparation will gradually begin, agricultural rigid demand will be released steadily, and industrial demand plus long-term contract orders will provide a stable floor, supporting market recovery.

Overall, in the short term, the MAP market will remain in narrow-range high-level consolidation under the drag of off-season demand. In the medium term, as autumn fertilizer stocking fully starts, recovering rigid demand is expected to drive the market steadily higher. The overall market tone is firm. Follow-up attention should focus on raw material trends, plant operating rates, and downstream fertilizer preparation pace.

DAP

Looking ahead, the domestic DAP market is expected to remain in a high-level stalemate in the short term.

For raw materials, short-term support remains rigid. Overseas geopolitical tensions continue to disrupt external sulfur supply, keeping import costs elevated. In addition, phosphate rock and synthetic ammonia markets are also firm. Industry production is generally loss-making, market bottom support is solid, and deep downside room is largely sealed.

On the demand side, the market is currently in the transition period between summer and autumn demand. Concentrated terminal fertilizer preparation has not yet started, and downstream procurement is mostly on a need-based, just-in-time basis, leaving overall trading activity subdued. As autumn wheat base fertilizer stocking gradually begins, raw material replenishment demand from downstream compound fertilizer enterprises will continue to be released, and rigid demand support will gradually strengthen.

In the short term, the DAP market is expected to continue high-level narrow-range consolidation, with limited momentum in either direction. In the medium term, as autumn fertilizer stocking advances and rigid demand continues to be released, the market is expected to strengthen with fluctuations. The overall market fundamentals remain firm. Follow-up attention should focus on raw material fluctuations, factory operating rhythms, and downstream concentrated fertilizer preparation progress.

06 Sulfur Market Analysis

6.1 Sulfur Market Price Analysis

This week, the domestic sulfur market saw broad regional gains, a strong upward surge, and high-level fluctuations. The weekly price center moved notably higher. Prices rose continuously in the early part of the week, followed by a rational and slight correction later, while the trading atmosphere improved significantly.

This round of gains was mainly driven by overseas geopolitical conflict, combined with localized tightness in domestic supply and demand. Market participants showed strong willingness to hold prices, and the overall market performed firmly.

By region, sulfur prices rose simultaneously in many domestic markets. In Northeast China, liquid sulfur prices rose alongside rigid in-market procurement, while solid sulfur gains were steady and rational, and transactions improved steadily. In Northwest China, supported by higher prices for external supply and overseas developments, downstream purchasing enthusiasm recovered, long-distance inquiries and procurement volumes increased, resource shipment was smooth, and the market achieved broad-based gains, with transaction centers continuing to move higher.

The Shandong liquid sulfur market performed strongly. Refinery auctions continued to conclude at premiums, and prices rose repeatedly. A tight regional supply-demand pattern, caused by refinery maintenance, tight local supply, and inflows of replenishment demand from outside the region, strongly supported market price increases.

In East China, supply contraction caused by refinery maintenance, together with periodic downstream stocking for rigid demand, drove prices steadily higher. The market as a whole maintained high-level fluctuations.

For external and overseas markets, geopolitical developments were the core driver this week. The U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement failed, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was again obstructed, Middle Eastern sulfur exports were restricted, and expectations of tighter global supply strengthened. This pushed third-quarter sulfur long-term contract quotations higher and substantially reinforced import cost support.

In the early part of the week, geopolitical positives were released intensively. Cargo holders held prices firmly, traders followed the rise, and spot prices continued to climb. Later, with no new positive drivers, market sentiment returned to rationality. Sellers became more willing to ship, high-level wait-and-see sentiment spread, market prices softened slightly, and the pace of gains gradually slowed.

In the short term, the domestic sulfur market is expected to remain high and firm with volatile consolidation. Overall downside room is limited, but the momentum for unilateral sharp gains has faded. The market has entered a digestion phase shaped by fundamentals and market sentiment.

According to FDD data calculations, on July 17, domestic Zhenjiang Port granular sulfur was priced at 9,180.00, flat from the previous working day; Dafeng Port granular sulfur was priced at 9,160.00, flat from the previous working day; Zhenjiang Port powder/block sulfur was priced at 9,130.00, flat from the previous working day; Dafeng Port powder/block sulfur was priced at 9,110.00, flat from the previous working day; East China solid sulfur was priced at 9,030.00, flat from the previous working day; East China liquid sulfur was priced at 9,130.00, up 0.55% from the previous working day.

07 Domestic Sulfur Port Inventory Analysis

According to FDD statistics, this week, inventory at major domestic sulfur market ports was approximately 751,200 tonnes, up 16,200 tonnes from last week, a week-on-week increase of 2.20%.

08 Domestic Sulfur Output Analysis

8.1 National Sulfur Output Analysis

This week, China’s sample sulfur output was 188,100 tonnes, with capacity utilization at 44.26%, down 0.24 percentage points from last week.

8.2 East China Sulfur Output Analysis

This week, East China’s sample weekly sulfur output was 24,200 tonnes, down 800 tonnes from last week. Capacity utilization stood at 25.10%, down 0.84 percentage points from last week. East China’s weekly output accounted for 13% of national total output.

8.3 East China Capacity Utilization

According to FDD statistics, this week, the operating rate of the domestic sulfur industry in East China was approximately 25.10%.

8.4 Solid Sulfur Arrivals

According to FDD statistics, this week, solid sulfur arrivals at major ports nationwide in July are temporarily estimated at approximately 400,000 tonnes.