July 17 Pesticide Daily Review: Cautious and Steady

The pesticide market as a whole remained weak in sentiment. Downstream procurement was driven mainly by rigid demand, market momentum was insufficient, and the cost-support logic eased somewhat as geopolitical tensions cooled. Some products still received support from temporary supply-demand mismatches, but due to transmission issues along the industrial chain, high prices continued to trigger negative feedback from downstream buyers. The market is waiting to see whether terminal demand can provide better support.

In international trade flows, China again faced pressure from the expected U.S. anti-dumping and countervailing policies on glyphosate, which weighed on domestic market sentiment. However, the actual investigation still needs continued follow-up, and at present the impact is limited to restraining exports to the U.S.; other trade flows still depend on external demand.

In addition, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have tightened again. With the U.S. and Iran both declaring a return to a wartime posture and the Strait of Hormuz reportedly blocked again, market concerns have resurfaced. Damage to supply in the petrochemical chain remains largely irreversible in the short term, so bottom support may still exist.

Overall, cautious sentiment remains dominant. Price increases in some upstream products continue to face transmission resistance downstream, upward momentum has paused, and a wait-and-see atmosphere persists. Follow-up attention should focus on geopolitical shifts, export demand, and seasonal demand.

Market Analysis

Herbicides

The herbicide market sentiment continues to weaken. Earlier inventory accumulation among traders has led to some low-price selling. Although cost support from geopolitical risks still exists, expectations have eased after the broader peace narrative stabilized, and insufficient downstream demand has failed to provide a new driver.

In the U.S., the invocation of the Defense Production Act to classify elemental phosphorus and glyphosate herbicides as defense-critical materials and prioritize domestic supply continues to provide some support for the domestic market. However, news that Monsanto is calling for anti-dumping and countervailing duties on Chinese glyphosate has again dampened domestic sentiment.

Overall, downstream buyers remain focused on rigid-demand purchases. With seasonal support weakening in the short term, market sentiment continues to soften. Follow-up attention should be paid to whether export issues improve and whether geopolitical sentiment changes.

Yellow Phosphorus

Today, the yellow phosphorus market generally remained stable. After prices had continued to fall and moved close to cost levels, upstream producers gradually showed a stronger willingness to withhold low-priced offers, creating some price support.

As downside room narrowed after the decline, downstream purchasing enthusiasm improved somewhat. However, a cautious wait-and-see attitude has still not fully reversed, and after phased replenishment, buyers are mainly digesting already ordered raw materials.

In the short term, the yellow phosphorus market is stabilizing after the decline. Although there has been a slight rebound, attention should still be paid to whether demand support can continue and how that affects price recovery expectations.

Pesticide Price Overview

Herbicides

95% Glyphosate, down RMB 500 to RMB 26,500/tonne
98% 2,4-D, down RMB 500 to RMB 15,000/tonne
95% Glufosinate, up RMB 500 to RMB 50,500/tonne
95% Nicosulfuron, down RMB 5,000 to RMB 155,000/tonne
97% Cyhalofop-butyl, down RMB 3,000 to RMB 102,000/tonne
85% Quinclorac, down RMB 3,000 to RMB 102,000/tonne, calculated on a 100% basis
97% Diuron, down RMB 3,000 to RMB 42,000/tonne

Insecticides

95% Fipronil, down RMB 25,000 to RMB 350,000/tonne
95% Abamectin technical, down RMB 10,000 to RMB 370,000/tonne
70% Emamectin benzoate, down RMB 10,000 to RMB 560,000/tonne
97% Lufenuron, down RMB 2,000 to RMB 118,000/tonne
96% Chlorantraniliprole, up RMB 5,000 to RMB 215,000/tonne

Fungicides

97% Tebuconazole, up RMB 1,000 to RMB 48,000/tonne
95% Tricyclazole, down RMB 2,000 to RMB 66,000/tonne
97% Carbendazim, down RMB 1,000 to RMB 35,000/tonne
97% Iprodione, down RMB 3,000 to RMB 195,000/tonne