Phosphate Fertilizer Weekly: Market Demand is Flat, Prices Undergo Minor Range Adjustment

Phosphate Fertilizer Market Analysis

Price Analysis of Phosphate Fertilizer Market:

Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP): According to Fertile Index data: This week, the average price index for 55% powdered MAP was 3456.25, down 28.25 from last week, a 0.81% decrease; the average price index for 55% granular MAP remained steady at 3400.00; the average price index for 58% powdered MAP was 3683.33, unchanged from last week.

This week, the MAP market prices continued to remain mostly stable with minor declines. Most companies paused their price quotes, maintaining steady prices. Factory-wise, manufacturers mainly focused on fulfilling pre-received orders, with a noticeable reduction in pending orders and insufficient new orders. Downstream traders showed an inclination to lower prices for shipments, leading to actual prices falling below current factory prices. In terms of supply, the production and operating rate of MAP slightly decreased this week, with some companies halting production due to shortages of upstream raw materials. Market-wise, MAP demand was sluggish with limited new transactions, and the transaction focus continued to narrow slightly. Demand-wise, there was a slight improvement in inquiries in the Northeast region, but downstream compound fertilizer enterprises were not very enthusiastic about MAP purchases, requiring only small quantities as needed. In terms of raw materials, prices of sulfur and synthetic ammonia underwent minor adjustments, while phosphate rock remained high in price under tight supply conditions, leading to a stalemate at the raw material end.

Diammonium Phosphate (DAP): According to Fertile Index data: This week, the average price index for 64% granular DAP was 3880.00, unchanged from last week; the average price index for 60% brown DAP was 3670.00, down 20.00 from last week, a 0.54% decrease; the average price index for 57% DAP was 3607.00, down 3.00 from last week, a 0.08% decrease.

This week, DAP market prices saw a minor downward adjustment. From the company perspective, most are executing pre-received orders, with some pending shipments stretching to late January next year, without any inventory or sales pressure. In terms of supply, DAP production and operating rates increased, leading to a rise in supply. The focus of companies has shifted from exports to the domestic market, increasing domestic supply with most factory prices being lower than market prices. Market-wise, the trading atmosphere was lackluster, with downstream players adopting a wait-and-see attitude. Demand-wise, downstream demand performed relatively well, currently in the stage of winter storage fertilizer, with general enthusiasm for restocking. In terms of raw materials, prices of sulfur and synthetic ammonia fluctuated, while phosphate rock prices remained high, leading to overall stability in raw material prices.

Future Outlook:

Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP): Overall, with a reduction in pending MAP orders and insufficient new order follow-ups, but a slight decrease in production and high raw material prices providing support, and considering the winter storage market still has essential demand, it is expected that MAP market prices will continue to remain mostly stable with minor adjustments next week.

Diammonium Phosphate (DAP): Overall, with firm raw material prices, sufficient pending orders for DAP, ample market supply, and downstream demand mostly in a wait-and-see mode, but with essential demand still present and few overall market influencing factors, it is expected that DAP market prices will undergo minor range adjustments next week.

Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Industry Operating Situation

Domestic Monoammonium Phosphate Industry:
This week, the operating rate of the domestic MAP industry was approximately 58.99%, a 3.91% decrease from last week but an 11.68% increase year-on-year. The weekly operating rate of the MAP industry showed a slight decline but remained higher than the same period last year.

Domestic Diammonium Phosphate Industry:
This week, the operating rate of the domestic DAP industry was approximately 53.70%, a 3.63% increase from last week and an 8.83% increase year-on-year. The weekly operating rate of the DAP industry continued to rise slightly, remaining higher than the same period last year.

Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Weekly Production Trend

Domestic Monoammonium Phosphate Weekly Production:
This week, domestic MAP production was approximately 230,400 tons, a 6.19% decrease from last week but a 23.34% increase year-on-year. The weekly production of domestic MAP declined but remained higher than the same period last year.

Domestic Diammonium Phosphate Weekly Production:
This week, domestic DAP production was approximately 269,800 tons, a 7.23% increase from last week and a 20.82% increase year-on-year. The weekly production of domestic DAP rose slightly, still higher than the same period last year.

Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Port Inventory Trend

Domestic Monoammonium Phosphate Port Inventory:
This week, the main port inventory of domestic MAP was approximately 35,100 tons, unchanged from last week but a 73.21% decrease year-on-year.

Domestic Diammonium Phosphate Port Inventory:
This week, the main port inventory of domestic DAP was approximately 248,100 tons, a 7.15% decrease from last week but a 37.53% increase year-on-year.