Phosphate Fertilizer Weekly Review: Limited Market Trading, Difficult to Improve Before the Festival

Phosphate Fertilizer Market Analysis:

Phosphate Fertilizer Market Price Analysis:

Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP):
According to Fertilizer Duo data, the average price index for 55% powdered MAP this week is 3107.50, a decrease of 36.25 from the previous week, a 1.15% week-on-week decline. The average price index for 55% granular MAP is 3250.00, remaining unchanged from the previous week. The average price index for 58% powdered MAP is 3383.33, remaining unchanged from the previous week.

This week, the market price of MAP continued to stabilize with minor declines. Market transactions were weak, and quotations remained stable. Manufacturers faced insufficient follow-up for new orders, leading to increased inventory pressure. Approaching the Spring Festival holiday, some enterprises gradually stopped production, anticipating a reduction in supply. Market quotations were unclear, and transactions continued to be pragmatic, indicating a market entering a phase of limited activity. With logistics entering a suspended state ahead of the holiday, the overall trading atmosphere remained subdued. Supply-wise, the operating rate of enterprises and daily production decreased slightly, impacting market activity. Demand from downstream remained cautious, with limited actual transactions.

Diammonium Phosphate (DAP):
According to Fertilizer Duo data, the average price index for 64% granular DAP this week is 3851.67, a decrease of 3.33 from the previous week, a 0.09% week-on-week decline. The average price index for 60% brown DAP is 3450.00, remaining unchanged from the previous week. The average price index for 57% content DAP is 3522.50, remaining unchanged from the previous week.

The market price of DAP continued to stabilize with minor declines, and market participants maintained a cautious outlook. Most enterprises had sufficient inventory, and as the Spring Festival approached, domestic transactions became increasingly subdued. New orders were limited, and negotiations for existing orders were the main focus. The market exhibited a flat performance with weak demand, especially nearing the holiday period. Supply-wise, the operating rate and daily production of enterprises increased slightly, but overall supply remained stable. Some previously halted facilities resumed production, contributing to a narrow increase in industry operating rates. Demand remained lackluster, with downstream enterprises adopting a wait-and-see attitude. Overall, the DAP market continued its weak consolidation.

Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Industry Operation:

Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP) Industry Operation:
According to Fertilizer Duo data, the operating rate of the domestic MAP industry is approximately 48.67% this week, a decrease of 1.18% from the previous week, and a year-on-year decrease of 8.20%. The operating rate continues to be lower than the same period last year.

Diammonium Phosphate (DAP) Industry Operation:
According to Fertilizer Duo data, the operating rate of the domestic DAP industry is approximately 56.78% this week, an increase of 1.05% from the previous week, and a year-on-year increase of 7.44%. The operating rate remains higher than the same period last year.

Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Weekly Production Trend:

Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP) Weekly Production Trend:
According to Fertilizer Duo data, the weekly production of domestic MAP is approximately 190,000 tons this week, a decrease of 2.41% from the previous week, and a year-on-year decrease of 15.71%. The weekly production continues to be lower than the same period last year.

Diammonium Phosphate (DAP) Weekly Production Trend:
According to Fertilizer Duo data, the weekly production of domestic DAP is approximately 273,300 tons this week, an increase of 1.86% from the previous week, and a year-on-year increase of 11.28%. The weekly production continues to be higher than the same period last year.

Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Port Inventory Trend:

Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP) Port Inventory Trend:
According to Fertilizer Duo data, the major port inventory of domestic MAP is approximately 12,000 tons this week, remaining unchanged from the previous week, and a year-on-year decrease of 89.28%.

Diammonium Phosphate (DAP) Port Inventory Trend:
According to Fertilizer Duo data, the major port inventory of domestic DAP is approximately 42,200 tons this week, remaining unchanged from the previous week, and a year-on-year decrease of 74.21%.

Phosphate Fertilizer Market Outlook:

Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP):
Overall, the current MAP market exhibits limited demand, with minimal follow-up for essential purchases. Overall pre-holiday procurement is limited, indicating a subdued market demand. Market participants hold a cautious outlook, and improvement before the holiday is challenging. The MAP market prices are expected to remain stable before the festival.

Diammonium Phosphate (DAP):
Overall, DAP enterprises have sufficient inventory, with many executing pre-sales. Although new orders are limited, the substantial pre-sales backlog provides resilience to enterprise sentiment. The DAP market prices are expected to continue stabilizing with minor declines in the upcoming week.