Urea Daily Review: Approaching the Spring Festival, Enterprises Execute Previous Pre-sales

According to Feiduoduo data, on February 4th, the urea small particle price index was 2252.73, a decrease of 0.91 from the previous working day, a week-on-week decline of 0.04%, and a year-on-year decline of 20.08%.

II. Spot Market Analysis:

Today, the domestic urea market experienced a slight downward trend, with manufacturer quotations mostly stable and consolidating, and the pre-holiday price adjustment relatively limited.

Specifically, in the Northeast region, prices remained stable at 2190-2270 yuan/ton. In North China, prices fell to 2040-2280 yuan/ton. In East China, prices dropped to 2160-2240 yuan/ton. In South China, prices remained stable at 2350-2400 yuan/ton. In Central China, small particle prices remained stable at 2170-2380 yuan/ton, and large particle prices stabilized at 2240-2320 yuan/ton. In Northwest China, prices remained stable at 2210-2220 yuan/ton. In Southwest China, prices remained stable at 2230-2600 yuan/ton.

III. Future Predictions:

On the factory side, most manufacturers have completed their pre-sales orders for the Spring Festival. With support from pending orders, most factories have relatively firm offers, and prices are stable with minor adjustments. The pre-holiday market fluctuation space is relatively small. On the market side, with most of the Spring Festival orders completed, the market sentiment tends to be cautious. Additionally, under the impact of rainy and snowy weather, transportation obstacles are gradually increasing, slowing down the downward movement of goods. In terms of supply, the current daily production changes are small, with some units undergoing maintenance before the year-end, maintaining stable high-level operation. Regarding demand, agricultural demand is mainly for reserve fertilizers, with limited follow-up transactions. Industrial demand from downstream factories is sluggish, and factors such as the upcoming Spring Festival contribute to a slowdown in raw material procurement by downstream factories. Approaching the year-end, some downstream factories are gradually shutting down, leading to a continuous weak trend in just-in-time demand.

Overall, as the year-end approaches, market participants are increasingly cautious, and transaction operations are limited. It is expected that the urea market prices will remain stable in the short term.