September 10 Pesticide Daily Review: Waiting for Market Changes

Overall sentiment in the pesticide market remained weak. Downstream demand follow-through was limited during the traditional off-season, leaving the market without sufficient momentum. However, some products received strong support from rising costs, while various factors caused supply to contract, leading to sharp short-term price increases. At the same time, problems with price transmission along the industrial chain have raised expectations that higher prices could generate negative feedback from downstream buyers. The market is therefore waiting to assess the extent to which end-user demand can absorb the increases. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain elevated, direct armed conflict between the United States and Iran continues, and Houthi forces have also conducted military operations against Saudi Arabia. Expectations for navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, two major maritime chokepoints, have weakened, reviving expectations of higher costs for the petrochemical industry. Overall, cautious sentiment persists. Some products have recorded notable price increases, while other categories have shown limited follow-through, resulting in clearly divergent market trends. The wait-and-see atmosphere remains evident. Attention should be paid to changes in geopolitical sentiment, export strength and seasonal demand.

Market Analysis

Herbicides: The herbicide market is currently consolidating at low levels. Prices are now close to the cost line, leaving limited room for further declines, but weak demand is also restricting the upside. Although cost pressures caused by geopolitical risks remain, insufficient demand absorption has failed to provide meaningful momentum. Glufosinate prices have recently surged, mainly because of tight production and price increases for raw material intermediates, India's anti-dumping measures and other factors. The market is closely monitoring transactions following the sharp price increase. If the upward trend continues, substitute products may also follow with price increases. Overall, most downstream buyers continue to take delivery only for rigid demand. The market is watching for signs that strength in individual products could broaden into a more extensive market trend.

Yellow Phosphorus: Yellow phosphorus market prices continued to undergo a modest correction today, while transaction sentiment remained subdued. In the short term, producers are mainly shipping existing orders. Mainstream producers recorded relatively satisfactory sales earlier, while most midstream and downstream buyers have completed their stockpiling, resulting in limited follow-through on new orders. Upstream producers are actively making shipments to free up storage capacity, while downstream buyers are taking the opportunity to negotiate prices lower. Transaction sentiment remains cautious. Downstream follow-through is slowing in the short term, placing renewed pressure on market sentiment, and participants are mainly adopting a wait-and-see stance. However, downside potential may remain limited. Attention should be paid to whether downstream restocking interest improves after prices decline.

Pesticide Market Price Overview

Herbicides:

96% quizalofop-P-ethyl fell by 5,000 yuan to 135,000 yuan/tonne.  
95% nicosulfuron fell by 3,000 yuan to 150,000 yuan/tonne.  
97% fluroxypyr fell by 2,000 yuan to 70,000 yuan/tonne.

Insecticides:

97% pymetrozine fell by 2,000 yuan to 94,000 yuan/tonne.  
97% chlorpyrifos fell by 1,000 yuan to 37,000 yuan/tonne.  
98% monosultap fell by 2,000 yuan to 80,000 yuan/tonne.

Fungicides:

96% hexaconazole fell by 2,000 yuan to 86,000 yuan/tonne.  
95% epoxiconazole fell by 5,000 yuan to 230,000 yuan/tonne.