September 20 Urea Daily Review: Weak Pre-Holiday Order Intake Leaves the Spot Market Under Pressure and Deadlocked

September 21, 2026

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Guide

Highlights at a glance

China's urea price index stood at 1,789.55 on Sept 20, reflecting a decrease of 0.35% from the previous day and an annual growth of 4.96%. The spot market witnessed weak trading due to subdued buyer interest ahead of the National Day holiday. While export orders provided some price support, weak demand from agriculture and industrial sectors caused market stagnation. Regional urea prices varied, with stable quotes in most areas and slight declines observed in some regions like Shandong. Short-term market dynamics are shaped by low demand, steady supply, and export factors. Attention remains on pre-holiday advance orders, export shipments, and agricultural stockpiling progress.

Domestic Urea Price Index:

According to FDD data, the small-granule urea price index stood at 1,789.55 on September 20, down 6.36 from the previous working day, representing a decrease of 0.35% period on period and an increase of 4.96% year on year.

Spot Market Analysis:

China's urea spot market traded weakly overall today. With the National Day holiday approaching, producers have successively lowered their quotations and begun actively securing pre-holiday orders. However, the reduced prices have yet to generate strong purchasing interest. Meanwhile, as some time remains before the holiday, downstream buyers do not yet face an urgent need for concentrated restocking. They continue to purchase only as needed, leaving overall trading activity subdued and the short-term market deadlocked.

Producer sentiment has diverged noticeably. Plants holding export orders are shipping cargoes relatively smoothly and remain somewhat willing to defend prices. Enterprises without export support, however, face mounting shipment pressure and are proactively offering concessions to accelerate cargo turnover. On the supply-demand side, overall supply remains relatively ample. On the demand side, large-scale agricultural stockpiling for autumn fertilizer has yet to begin, while operating-rate increases among compound fertilizer producers and downstream industrial users remain limited, leaving substantive demand weak.

Overall, most producers have begun preselling holiday orders ahead of the National Day holiday. Given current fundamentals, urea prices may soften and decline in the short term. However, raw material costs provide downside support, while the diversion of some cargoes into exports also supports the market, limiting the potential for a steep decline. If prices retreat to lower levels, bargain buying may emerge and gradually increase new-order volumes. Attention should continue to focus on pre-holiday advance orders, the fulfillment of export shipments, and the pace of downstream restocking.

Overall, China's urea spot market is currently undergoing weak consolidation. On the supply side, availability remains relatively ample. Although maintenance at some facilities has caused daily output to retreat slightly from high levels and port deliveries have diverted some cargoes from the domestic market, these developments have not fundamentally changed the loose supply structure.

On the demand side, agricultural demand is in an intermittent period and purchases have yet to be released on a concentrated basis. Compound fertilizer producers and other industrial downstream users have high finished-product inventories and low operating rates. They continue to maintain low inventories and remain cautious about purchases, placing only small replenishment orders for essential needs, which is insufficient to generate strong demand momentum. Current fundamentals reflect a contest between positive long-term export expectations and weak short-term conditions. Support from the issuance of export quotas is reflected mainly in longer-term expectations and is unlikely to materially change fundamentals in the short term. The market lacks new drivers capable of producing a breakout. Attention should focus on changes in downstream purchasing, the actual fulfillment of export orders, and progress in agricultural stockpiling for autumn fertilizer.

By region, prices in Northeast China remained stable at RMB 1,790-1,810/tonne. Prices in East China fell to RMB 1,740-1,800/tonne. Prices in Central China remained stable at RMB 1,750-1,920/tonne. Prices in North China fell to RMB 1,610-1,840/tonne. Prices in South China remained stable at RMB 1,800-1,840/tonne. Prices in Northwest China remained stable at RMB 1,860-1,910/tonne. Prices in Southwest China remained stable at RMB 1,660-1,900/tonne.

Market Updates:

September 20: The reference delivered price for urea in Guangzhou, Guangdong, was RMB 1,820-1,840/tonne, unchanged from the previous working day.

September 20: The reference delivered price for urea in Nanning, Guangxi, was RMB 1,800-1,810/tonne, unchanged from the previous working day.

September 20: The reference delivered price for urea in Shijiazhuang, Hebei, was RMB 1,750-1,800/tonne, down RMB 40/tonne from the previous working day.

September 20: The reference delivered price for urea in Wen'an, Hebei, was RMB 1,780-1,800/tonne, down RMB 20/tonne from the previous working day.

September 20: Mainstream reference prices for small- and medium-granule urea in Shangqiu were RMB 1,760-1,800/tonne, while large-granule urea was quoted at approximately RMB 2,040-2,050/tonne.

September 20: Mainstream reference prices for small- and medium-granule urea in Jingmen were RMB 1,750-1,780/tonne. Temporary self-pickup prices at railway stations were approximately RMB 1,700-1,730/tonne, while mainstream self-pickup prices for large-granule urea were RMB 2,020-2,030/tonne.

September 20: The reference ex-warehouse/truck-loading price in Tieling, Liaoning, was RMB 1,790-1,810/tonne, unchanged from the previous working day.

September 20: The reference delivered price for urea in Heze, Shandong, was approximately RMB 1,740-1,750/tonne, broadly unchanged from the previous working day.

September 20: The reference delivered price for urea in Linyi, Shandong, was RMB 1,750-1,760/tonne, down RMB 30/tonne from the previous working day.

September 20: The mainstream reference price in Xianyang was RMB 1,800-1,820/tonne, unchanged from the previous working day.

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September 20 Urea Daily Review: Weak Pre-Holiday Order Intake Leaves the Spot Market Under Pressure and Deadlocked