September 24 Phosphate Fertilizer Daily Review: Weakening Cost Support and Sluggish Demand Recovery as the Market Awaits Autumn Fertilizer Guidance

MAP Price Index:

According to FDD data calculations, on September 24, China's 55% powdered MAP index was 3,931.25, down 0.57% from the previous working day. The 55% granular MAP index was 4,300.00, unchanged from the previous working day, while the 58% powdered MAP index was 4,350.00, also unchanged.

MAP Market Analysis and Outlook:

China's domestic MAP market remained weak today. On the producer side, most plants were still fulfilling earlier orders, market prices continued to decline, and low-priced offers from some small plants and traders reappeared, with actual transactions subject to negotiation. On the market side, low-priced offers appeared frequently, while trading sentiment remained stagnant and subdued. On the demand side, demand from some downstream compound fertilizer producers was released to a certain extent, but purchases remained focused on essential needs. Market sentiment was relatively cautious, and demand remained weak. On the raw-material side, domestic sulfur prices were rangebound today; sulfur port inventories remained relatively low overall; sulfuric acid prices were weak and rangebound; and the phosphate rock market was mainly stable. Raw-material prices on the cost side all declined but remained high, continuing to provide relatively strong support for producers. Overall, the MAP market remains characterized by marginally weaker cost support and a sluggish demand recovery, and is expected to maintain a weak downward trend in the short term. Attention should remain on raw-material price movements, the pace at which downstream compound fertilizer producers begin autumn fertilizer stockpiling, and the impact of geopolitical developments on the cost side.

DAP Price Index:

According to FDD data calculations, on September 24, China's mainstream 64% granular DAP index was 4,563.33, unchanged from the previous working day. The 60% brown DAP index was 4,600.00, also unchanged, while the 57% grade index was 4,282.50, unchanged from the previous working day.

DAP Market Analysis and Outlook:

China's domestic DAP market was stable today. On the producer side, some companies were mainly focused on fulfilling earlier orders awaiting shipment. Market quotations varied, while actual transactions remained subject to negotiation. On the market side, wait-and-see sentiment was strong. On the demand side, grassroots demand is being released step by step, cargo circulation has improved from earlier levels, and market trading sentiment has shown signs of recovery. However, purchases remain concentrated in small orders for essential needs, and large-scale procurement has not yet begun. On the raw-material side, domestic sulfur prices were rangebound today; sulfur port inventories remained relatively low overall; sulfuric acid prices moved lower; and the phosphate rock market was mainly stable. Raw-material prices on the cost side all declined, but remained relatively high and continued to provide strong support for the market. Overall, the DAP market is expected to continue consolidating within a narrow range in the short term. Attention should remain on raw-material price movements, downstream demand follow-through and subsequent adjustments to export policy.

Sulfur Market Prices:

According to FDD data calculations, on September 24, the price of granular sulfur at Zhenjiang Port was RMB 7,150/tonne, down RMB 50/tonne from the previous working day. The price of granular sulfur at Dafeng Port was RMB 7,100/tonne, down RMB 80/tonne. The price of powdered/lump sulfur at Zhenjiang Port was RMB 7,130/tonne, down RMB 20/tonne. The price of powdered/lump sulfur at Dafeng Port was RMB 7,080/tonne, down RMB 50/tonne. The solid sulfur price in East China was RMB 7,200/tonne, unchanged from the previous working day, while the liquid sulfur price in East China was RMB 7,360/tonne, down RMB 45/tonne.

Sulfur Market Analysis and Outlook:

China's domestic spot sulfur market generally remained rangebound today. In the morning, granular sulfur quotations at ports along the Yangtze River held around reference levels, active inquiries in the market were scarce, and spot transactions progressed slowly. With the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays approaching, traders generally adopted a wait-and-see stance, and their willingness to trade defensively increased, causing overall market sentiment to become subdued. At the same time, prices for competing sulfuric acid continued to fall, making it more cost-effective by comparison. Downstream phosphate fertilizer producers prioritized larger sulfuric acid purchases while stockpiling raw materials before the holiday, further diverting demand away from sulfur. This increased resistance to spot sulfur sales at ports, and there was a lack of strong buying support for an upward move in the short term. Liquid sulfur in Shandong continued to fluctuate at high levels, with independent-refinery auctions showing firm transaction results. Local supply continued to tighten, and refineries had limited volumes available for external sale. Combined with downstream restocking demand before the holiday, this kept auction sentiment elevated. As long as downstream plants could still manage their own costs, they maintained some rigid demand for deliveries, and their purchasing activity provided clear support for the local liquid sulfur market. However, given that shipment pressure for downstream finished fertilizers had not been fully resolved, there was also a ceiling on downstream follow-through, and willingness to chase prices higher remained cautious. Affected by autumn fertilizer production schedules, downstream phosphate fertilizer producers mainly purchased raw materials to meet essential restocking needs. Faced with high raw-material costs, they remained cautious, and no concentrated restocking occurred. With the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays approaching, traders mainly focused on drawing down existing inventories and showed little willingness to stock up actively, leaving firm spot transactions limited overall. International markets and the global shipping situation continued to provide cost-level support for the domestic market, while the current operating conditions of the downstream fertilizer industry clearly capped the upside. The contest between bullish and bearish factors continues in the short term, making it difficult for the market to establish a clear direction. Attention should subsequently focus on the pace of port arrivals, the progress of raw-material restocking by phosphate fertilizer producers and changes in overseas supply.

Phosphate Fertilizer Market Outlook:

September 24: The delivered quotation for 55% powdered MAP in the Anhui market was around RMB 3,900-4,000/tonne, with quotations lowered.

September 24: The delivered price for 55% powdered MAP in the Northeast market was around RMB 4,200-4,230/tonne, with quotations stable.

September 24: The delivered price for 55% powdered MAP in the Henan market was around RMB 3,850-3,950/tonne, with quotations lowered.

September 24: The mainstream ex-works price for 55% powdered MAP in the Hubei market was around RMB 3,800-3,900/tonne, with quotations stable.

September 24: The delivered price for 55% powdered MAP in the Jiangsu market was around RMB 3,850-3,950/tonne, with quotations lowered.

September 24: The delivered quotation for 55% powdered MAP in the Shandong market was around RMB 3,850-3,950/tonne, with quotations lowered.

September 24: The delivered quotation for 55% powdered MAP in the Sichuan market was around RMB 3,800-3,900/tonne, with quotations stable.

September 24: The ex-works quotation for 55% powdered MAP in the Yunnan market was around RMB 3,850-3,900/tonne, with quotations lowered.

September 24: The ex-plant pickup quotation for 60% DAP in Shaanxi was RMB 4,500-4,650/tonne, with quotations stable.

September 24: The ex-plant pickup quotation for 64% DAP in Northeast China was RMB 4,550-4,600/tonne, with quotations stable.

September 24: The pickup quotation for 57% DAP in Hebei was RMB 4,250-4,350/tonne, with quotations stable.

September 24: The ex-plant pickup quotation for 64% DAP in Hubei was RMB 4,800-4,850/tonne, with quotations stable.

September 24: The ex-warehouse pickup quotation for 64% DAP in Shandong was RMB 4,850-4,950/tonne, with quotations stable; the station pickup quotation for 57% DAP was RMB 4,250-4,350/tonne, also with quotations stable.