September 9 Phosphate Fertilizer Daily Review: High Costs and Weak Demand Remain in Competition, Keeping the Phosphate Fertilizer Market Weak

MAP Price Index:
According to Feidoodoo data, the domestic 55% powder MAP index stood at 4,210.00 on September 9, down 0.30% from the previous working day. The 55% granular MAP index was 4,375.00, unchanged from the previous working day. The 58% powder MAP index was 4,533.33, down 0.37% from the previous working day.

MAP Market Analysis and Outlook:
The domestic MAP market continued to decline weakly today. On the producer side, most plants continued to execute earlier orders. Prices of 55% powder MAP continued to fall, traders kept lowering their offers, and actual transactions were negotiated on a case-by-case basis. On the market side, subdued and deadlocked conditions persisted. On the demand side, some downstream compound fertilizer producers continued to consume previously stocked raw materials and maintained only limited rigid-demand purchases. Buying interest was low, new-order transactions were limited, market sentiment remained cautious and deadlocked, and demand was still weak. On the raw material side, domestic sulfur prices fluctuated in consolidation; sulfur port inventories remained relatively low overall; sulfuric acid prices remained weak; and the phosphate rock market was broadly stable. Cost-side prices remained high and continued to provide strong support to producers. Overall, the MAP market is expected to remain weak and move lower in the short term. Attention should be paid to raw material price trends, the pace of autumn fertilizer stocking by downstream compound fertilizer producers, and the pass-through effect of geopolitical developments on costs.

DAP Price Index:
According to Feidoodoo data, the mainstream domestic 64% granular DAP index stood at 4,563.33 on September 9, unchanged from the previous working day. The 60% brown DAP index was 4,700.00, unchanged. The 57% DAP index was 4,375.00, unchanged.

DAP Market Analysis and Outlook:
The domestic DAP market remained weak today. On the producer side, some producers focused on shipping previously pending orders and maintained firm prices, while actual transactions continued to be negotiated. On the market side, trading activity remained low, with strong wait-and-see sentiment. On the demand side, demand is recovering slowly, but the overall pace of shipments remains slow. Although the autumn fertilizer stocking window is gradually approaching, wait-and-see sentiment remains strong, downstream follow-through is limited and large-scale procurement has not started. doOn the raw material side, mestic sulfur prices fluctuated in consolidation; sulfur port inventories remained relatively low; sulfuric acid prices remained weak; and the phosphate rock market was stable. Raw material costs continued to provide strong support to the market. Overall, the DAP market is expected to remain weak and range-bound in the short term. Attention should be paid to changes in raw material prices, downstream demand follow-through and subsequent export-policy adjustments.

Sulfur Market Prices:
According to Feidoodoo data, on September 9, granular sulfur at Zhenjiang Port was priced at 7,800 yuan/tonne, down 30 yuan/tonne from the previous working day; granular sulfur at Dafeng Port was 7,780 yuan/tonne, down 30 yuan/tonne; lump and powder sulfur at Zhenjiang Port was 7,750 yuan/tonne, down 30 yuan/tonne; lump and powder sulfur at Dafeng Port was 7,730 yuan/tonne, down 30 yuan/tonne; solid sulfur in East China was 7,700 yuan/tonne, unchanged; and liquid sulfur in East China was 7,535 yuan/tonne, up 40 yuan/tonne.

Sulfur Market Analysis and Outlook:
The domestic sulfur market mainly fluctuated in consolidation today. Trading was subdued, quotations were broadly stable with small fluctuations in some areas, and continuing developments in the Middle East remained the key external variable influencing market expectations. On the supply side, domestic refinery operations were stable and domestic sulfur supply was broadly steady, while port inventories remained relatively low. On the import side, escalating US-Iran military conflict and reduced transit efficiency through the Strait of Hormuz slowed Middle Eastern sulfur exports. Higher marine insurance and freight costs increased concerns about the timing of future import arrivals. Traders showed marginally stronger willingness to support prices, although earlier-arrived cargoes can still supply the market and demand acceptance at high prices remains the key variable.
On the demand side, operating rates in the downstream sulfuric acid sector remained relatively stable, while phosphate fertilizer and other sectors purchased mainly for rigid demand. Autumn fertilizer stocking is gradually increasing demand for raw materials, but downstream buyers have limited acceptance of high-priced cargoes. Procurement remains cautious and is largely based on as-needed replenishment, making it difficult to create concentrated volume growth or strong upward momentum. Middle East geopolitical conflict affects both supply-demand conditions and costs. High shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb Strait directly disrupt the efficiency of Middle Eastern sulfur exports and extend delivery cycles, while also raising international shipping risk premiums, marine insurance costs and freight rates. This further supports the cost floor for imported sulfur and provides downside support to domestic spot prices.
Overall wait-and-see sentiment remains strong. If the conflict worsens further, expectations for a temporary supply contraction cannot be ruled out. Overall, there is currently no significant imbalance in sulfur market fundamentals, and upstream-downstream bargaining is in a weak equilibrium. Price fluctuations are mainly driven by external geopolitical sentiment. The market is expected to remain range-bound in the short term. Upside depends on supply-tightening expectations from further escalation in geopolitical tensions, while downside is constrained by expectations of negative demand feedback in China. Attention should focus on developments in US-Iran relations, navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and the actual pace of downstream demand release.

Phosphate Fertilizer Market Updates:
September 9: The delivered quotation for 55% powder MAP in Anhui was around 4,300-4,400 yuan/tonne, unchanged.
September 9: The delivered quotation for 55% powder MAP in Northeast China was around 4,350-4,400 yuan/tonne, unchanged.
September 9: The delivered quotation for 55% powder MAP in Henan was around 4,150-4,300 yuan/tonne, down.
September 9: The mainstream ex-factory quotation for 55% powder MAP in Hubei was around 4,050-4,300 yuan/tonne, down.
September 9: The delivered quotation for 55% powder MAP in Jiangsu was around 4,150-4,350 yuan/tonne, unchanged.
September 9: The delivered quotation for 55% powder MAP in Shandong was around 4,150-4,300 yuan/tonne, unchanged.
September 9: The delivered quotation for 55% powder MAP in Sichuan was around 4,200-4,250 yuan/tonne, unchanged.
September 9: The ex-factory quotation for 55% powder MAP in Yunnan was around 4,000-4,150 yuan/tonne, unchanged.
September 9: The self-pickup ex-factory quotation for 60% DAP in Shaanxi was 4,500-4,650 yuan/tonne, unchanged.
September 9: The self-pickup ex-factory quotation for 64% DAP in Northeast China was 4,550-4,600 yuan/tonne, unchanged.
September 9: The self-pickup quotation for 57% DAP in Hebei was 4,350-4,400 yuan/tonne, down.
September 9: The self-pickup ex-factory quotation for 64% DAP in Hubei was 4,800-4,850 yuan/tonne, unchanged.
September 9: The self-pickup warehouse quotation for 64% DAP in Shandong was 4,850-4,950 yuan/tonne, unchanged; the self-pickup station quotation for 57% DAP was 4,350-4,400 yuan/tonne, unchanged.