September 9 Pesticide Daily Review: Extreme Divergence

The pesticide market remains broadly weak in sentiment. Downstream demand follow-through is limited during the traditional off-season, and market drivers are insufficient. However, some products have received strong support from rising costs, while supply has contracted under various factors, resulting in sharp short-term price gains. At the same time, constrained pass-through along the value chain means that higher prices may trigger negative feedback from downstream markets. The market is therefore watching whether end-user demand can provide further absorption. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain high, with direct armed conflict between the United States and Iran continuing. Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia has also reduced expectations for navigation through both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, reviving expectations of higher costs across the petrochemical sector. Overall, market caution persists. Some products have risen sharply, while other categories have struggled to follow, resulting in clear market divergence. Attention should focus on geopolitical sentiment, export momentum and seasonal demand.

Market Analysis

Herbicides:
The herbicide market remains in a low-level consolidation phase. Prices are already close to cost lines, limiting further downside, but weak demand is also constraining upside. Cost increases caused by geopolitical risks remain in place, but insufficient demand absorption makes it difficult to create upward momentum. Glufosinate prices have recently surged, mainly because of tight and rising prices for intermediate feedstocks and India's anti-dumping issues. The market is closely watching transaction performance after the sharp rise. If prices continue to increase, substitute products may also be expected to follow higher. Overall, downstream buyers are mainly purchasing for rigid demand, and the market is watching whether gains in individual products can develop into a broader market driver.

Yellow Phosphorus:
Yellow phosphorus prices continued to correct lower today, while transaction sentiment remained subdued. In the short term, producers are mainly shipping existing orders. Mainstream producers achieved relatively good shipments earlier, while midstream and downstream buyers have largely completed their stocking and follow-through on new orders is limited. Upstream producers are actively shipping to reduce inventories, while downstream buyers are pressing for lower prices and remain cautious in transactions. As downstream follow-through slows in the short term, market sentiment is under pressure again and participants are mainly taking a wait-and-see stance. However, further downside may remain limited. Attention should focus on whether restocking willingness improves after prices fall.

Pesticide Market Price Overview

Herbicides:
96% oxyfluorfen fell by 2,000 yuan to 130,000 yuan/tonne.

Insecticides:
97% acetamiprid fell by 1,000 yuan to 57,000 yuan/tonne. 97% clothianidin fell by 1,000 yuan to 64,000 yuan/tonne. 97% chlorfenapyr fell by 2,000 yuan to 116,000 yuan/tonne. 97% lufenuron fell by 3,000 yuan to 112,000 yuan/tonne.

Fungicides:
97% tebuconazole fell by 1,000 yuan to 46,000 yuan/tonne. 98% azoxystrobin fell by 3,000 yuan to 120,000 yuan/tonne. 97% pyraclostrobin fell by 2,000 yuan to 123,000 yuan/tonne.