Synthetic ammonia: the good has not been realized, the local weakening

Recently, the domestic synthetic ammonia market fell weak again after a short-term agitation. As the Dragon Boat Festival holiday approached, the market’s wait-and-see attitude increased. It was adjusted according to its shipment situation, and the range was mostly around 50-150 yuan/ton.

In terms of urea: In May, the domestic urea market first rose strongly and then fell slowly aftershock. Among them, under the support of multiple favorable factors in the first half of this month, the urea market rose in an all-around way, and the prices in various regions continued to hit record highs, ranging from 150-260 yuan/ton in the region. The historical high, Xinjiang's increase is as high as 450 yuan/ton. In the middle of the urea market stalemate, the urea market has been stagnant and slowly adjusted downward, with a regional decline ranging from 50-80 yuan/ton. Up to now, the mainstream regional price reference is about 3060-3170 yuan/ton.

In terms of synthetic ammonia: At the beginning of the month, the domestic synthetic ammonia market returned from the May Day holiday with a strong and unabated trading atmosphere, causing the market focus to rise again. Only a small number of regions such as Shaanxi and Shanxi, which are mainly export-oriented, have cleared the warehouse at low prices in the early stage, and the rest of the regions have no inventory pressure and are driven by the higher urea price, and the increase is 50-150 yuan/ton in a stable state. The low price also quickly made up. In addition, there are still ammonia companies in central China that have released maintenance plans. The load of some export hubs in southern China and the gas head enterprises in southwest China is also tight due to the reduction in the maintenance load of the gas field. The mainstream of the ammonia market continues to soar, and it rose to about 5,000 yuan/ton in many places in the middle of the year. , once again set a new record high. With the stalemate of urea at a high level and the ammonia market breaking through the 5,000 yuan/ton mark, the downstream purchases are more contradictory, and some downstream ammonia prices are intentionally lowered, which affects market sentiment and sporadically loosened for the smooth shipment of the ammonia market. However, in the second half of the year, some ammonia companies in Shaanxi announced maintenance plans, which once again boosted market sentiment. The low prices in Shaanxi and Shanxi rose rapidly, and the focus of the ammonia market rose again. The favorable support in the thigh area is limited. To successfully reduce the inventory before the holiday, the market will be slightly pessimistic in the short term.

Prediction: As the Dragon Boat Festival is approaching, the downstream will follow up passively due to cost pressure, and there is no good news to boost the trend of acrylonitrile in June. The trend of acrylonitrile in June is cautious, and it will continue to run weakly for a short time. The poor demand has no positive support for the market, and urea is slowly falling. However, some ammonia companies in Henan and Shaanxi still have maintenance plans in early June, which may boost the market in a short time. More attention should be paid to the production dynamics of ammonia companies.