Trapped Inside And Outside, Where Does Potassium Chloride Go?
June 12, 2024, 9:21 AM
Jinchuang
2950
Guide
Highlights at a glance
The global potash fertilizer market remains weak, with sluggish demand and bearish sentiment prevailing both domestically and internationally. Domestically, low downstream purchasing interest, declining cash flow, and rising storage costs are pressuring producers, while compound fertilizer and potassium sulfate enterprises show limited buying activity. Internationally, poor liquidity and a pricing stalemate between buyers and sellers continue, with prices expected to decline further. Key Southeast Asian importers like Thailand and Vietnam may reduce granular potassium sulfate purchases in Q4 due to sufficient inventories and lower farmer demand. Some plantations are shifting to NPK or NK fertilizers, perceived as more potassium-efficient. Lao exports see granular KCl at around $780/ton CFR and standard below $700/ton CFR, with Thai imports as low as $600/ton, but trading remains limited due to seasonal lulls and high prices. In Indonesia, weak domestic demand and pessimistic sentiment
At present, potash fertilizer is in the off-season of sales, and the domestic demand is released slowly. Downstream factories and traders don't accept the current price and are in no hurry to purchase. Market participants are pessimistic about the market outlook and predict that the demand will be weaker in the later period. The decrease of cash flow and the increase of storage cost related to the decrease of demand will put pressure on domestic producers.
The international market is still bearish, and its liquidity is poor. Now it's up to the buyer and seller of the transaction to give up their pricing first. There is a serious stalemate in the market, but the market expects that the price will continue to show a downward trend. Looking at neighboring markets, some importers of granular potassium sulfate in Thailand and Vietnam will probably reduce their purchases in the fourth quarter due to sufficient stocks in Thailand and Vietnam and reduced farmers' demand. Some plantations in Southeast Asia will probably reduce their demand for potassium chloride and buy NPKs or NKs instead, because the potassium content in these products is considered to be more valuable. However, the main manufacturers have not reported the use of standard potassium and granular potassium. For Lao products, the granular price is about $780/ton CFR, while the standard product is lower than $700/ton CFR, and the granular potassium chloride exported from Laos to Thai importers is as low as $600/ton. Trading activities are limited, because Thailand is in the off-season, while Vietnam's demand is still sluggish due to high prices.
In Indonesia, domestic demand is weak, market sentiment is pessimistic, and there is almost no trading activity. In mid-September, at least two potassium chloride ships from BPC arrived at Gresik port. It is reported that the price of these goods is 800-900 USD/ton CFR, but it has not been confirmed by the buyer.
Therefore, from the international point of view, market sentiment is still pessimistic and prices are still under pressure. The current sluggish global demand will further depress prices, but the market may enter a period of stability at the end of the fourth quarter, when purchases in Brazil, Europe and Southeast Asia should pick up.
However, the domestic potash fertilizer market is still in a steady downward trend. Because compound fertilizer and potassium sulfate enterprises are not active in purchasing potash fertilizer, they only need it, and there is a lack of big orders in the market, so the price guidance is not significant. On the whole, the main problems faced by the domestic potassium chloride market are the imbalance between supply and demand, the slow increase of port inventory, the sluggish demand and the declining international price, and the lack of support in the domestic market. Therefore, in the short term, the trend of domestic potassium chloride is not optimistic. Although some areas are waiting to see the price, some varieties still have a slow decline.
The international market is still bearish, and its liquidity is poor. Now it's up to the buyer and seller of the transaction to give up their pricing first. There is a serious stalemate in the market, but the market expects that the price will continue to show a downward trend. Looking at neighboring markets, some importers of granular potassium sulfate in Thailand and Vietnam will probably reduce their purchases in the fourth quarter due to sufficient stocks in Thailand and Vietnam and reduced farmers' demand. Some plantations in Southeast Asia will probably reduce their demand for potassium chloride and buy NPKs or NKs instead, because the potassium content in these products is considered to be more valuable. However, the main manufacturers have not reported the use of standard potassium and granular potassium. For Lao products, the granular price is about $780/ton CFR, while the standard product is lower than $700/ton CFR, and the granular potassium chloride exported from Laos to Thai importers is as low as $600/ton. Trading activities are limited, because Thailand is in the off-season, while Vietnam's demand is still sluggish due to high prices.
In Indonesia, domestic demand is weak, market sentiment is pessimistic, and there is almost no trading activity. In mid-September, at least two potassium chloride ships from BPC arrived at Gresik port. It is reported that the price of these goods is 800-900 USD/ton CFR, but it has not been confirmed by the buyer.
Therefore, from the international point of view, market sentiment is still pessimistic and prices are still under pressure. The current sluggish global demand will further depress prices, but the market may enter a period of stability at the end of the fourth quarter, when purchases in Brazil, Europe and Southeast Asia should pick up.
However, the domestic potash fertilizer market is still in a steady downward trend. Because compound fertilizer and potassium sulfate enterprises are not active in purchasing potash fertilizer, they only need it, and there is a lack of big orders in the market, so the price guidance is not significant. On the whole, the main problems faced by the domestic potassium chloride market are the imbalance between supply and demand, the slow increase of port inventory, the sluggish demand and the declining international price, and the lack of support in the domestic market. Therefore, in the short term, the trend of domestic potassium chloride is not optimistic. Although some areas are waiting to see the price, some varieties still have a slow decline.
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June 12, 2024, 9:21 AM
June 12, 2024, 9:21 AM
