Urea Daily Report: Enterprises' Pending Orders Sufficient, Pre-Holiday Quotations Mostly Stable

Domestic Urea Price Index:

According to data from Feidoodoo, the urea small granule price index on April 30 was 2258.77, an increase of 1.82 compared to the previous day, up 0.08% month-on-month, and down 7.51% year-on-year.

Urea Futures Market:

Today's opening price for the urea UR409 contract: is 2075, the highest price: is 2079, the lowest price: is 2028, the settlement price: is 2052, closing price: is 2056, a decrease of 17 compared to the previous trading day's settlement price, down 0.82% month-on-month, with a fluctuation range of 2028-2079 throughout the day; the basis difference for the 09 contracts in Shandong region is 184; the 09 contract reduced positions by 16230 hands today, with a current holding of 218788 hands.

Spot Market Analysis:

Today, the price trend of the domestic urea market continued to rise, with overall prices slightly up, and enterprises mostly executing pending orders before the holiday, resulting in stable and consolidating quotations.

Specifically, prices in the Northeast region remained stable at 2160-2230 yuan/ton. Prices in the East China region remained stable at 2240-2280 yuan/ton. In the Central China region, prices for small granules remained stable at 2250-2350 yuan/ton, while prices for large granules remained stable at 2260-2290 yuan/ton. Prices in the North China region remained stable at 2120-2230 yuan/ton. Prices in the South China region rose to 2300-2420 yuan/ton. Prices in the Northwest region remained stable at 2170-2180 yuan/ton. Prices in the Southwest region remained stable at 2180-2550 yuan/ton.

Future Market Forecast:

From the perspective of factories, manufacturers continue to ship pre-received orders, with continuous outbound shipments. Although the recent transactions for new orders have significantly decreased, with the approaching May Day holiday, most enterprises have no pressure on shipments, and current quotations remain stable, with slight loosening from some manufacturers. From the market perspective, the trading atmosphere has decreased, and the pre-holiday market situation has remained relatively stable, temporarily in a calm and consolidating phase, with limited changes. In terms of supply, industry supply continues to decrease, and the tight spot market situation continues. Most units are expected to resume operation and maintenance after the holiday, leading to expectations of further supply reductions in the market. In terms of demand, downstream purchases are mostly driven by rigid demands for replenishment. Compound fertilizer factories continue to operate at high levels, leading to a strong demand for urea raw materials, and rigid downstream demand still exists.

Overall, although the trading atmosphere in the current urea market has decreased compared to the previous period, enterprises have good orders from the previous period, with sufficient pending orders. Coupled with supply reductions forming a favorable situation, quotations before the holiday are mostly stable and consolidating. It is expected that urea market prices will continue to be stable with minor adjustments in the short term, consolidating within a range.