Urea Daily Review: Market Continues Stalemate, Enterprises Reduce Prices to Secure Orders

Domestic Urea Price Index:

According to Feidoodoo data, as of January 15th, the urea small granule price index was 2340.14, down 9.68 from last Friday, a decrease of 0.41%, and down 16.12% year-on-year.

Urea Futures Market:

Today's urea UR405 contract opened in 2035, with the highest price in 2083, the lowest in 2030, settling in 2062, and closing in 2076. The closing price was up 28 from the previous trading day's settlement, an increase of 1.37%, with a daily fluctuation range of 2030-2083. The 05 contracts in the Shandong region had a basis of 164; the 05 contracts decreased their position by 4518 hands today, with a current holding of 181,000 hands.

Spot Market Analysis:

Today, the domestic urea market continued its weak trend, with weak market demand, limited follow-up quantities, and a stalemate in prices.

Specifically, prices in the Northeast region fell to 2350-2410 yuan/ton. In North China, prices dropped to 2090-2410 yuan/ton. In East China, prices decreased to 2220-2300 yuan/ton. In South China, prices dropped to 2400-2430 yuan/ton. In Central China, small and medium granule prices fell to 2220-2450 yuan/ton, while large granule prices remained stable at 2390-2480 yuan/ton. Prices in Northwest China held steady at 2250-2260 yuan/ton, and in Southwest China, they remained stable at 2300-2800 yuan/ton.

Market Forecast:

From the factory side, the follow-up intensity for new orders is moderate. As pre-orders gradually decrease, some factories continue to lower their quotes to secure new orders, leading to general stability but a slight decline in market prices. Market-wise, the atmosphere continues to be cautious, with many observers adopting a wait-and-see approach. In terms of supply, early gas-head maintenance enterprises are resuming operations, along with recent temporary fault repairs, leading to an upward trend in daily production and a gradual increase in market supply, putting upward pressure on urea prices. Demand-wise, agricultural needs continue with moderate low-price stocking, and overall purchasing enthusiasm is not high. Recent days have seen the initiation of agricultural demand in the Su-Wan region

, offering a slight boost to agricultural demand. However, the start-up of downstream compound fertilizer factories remains slow, showing signs of fatigue, and industrial demand continues to be weak.

In summary, the current urea market lacks upward momentum, with many enterprises reducing prices to secure orders. Downstream purchasing remains cautious. It is expected that in the short term, the urea market will continue to operate in a weak stalemate, with prices likely to maintain overall stability with a slight downward trend.