Urea Daily Review: Slight Improvement in Market Transactions, Agriculture Demand Follows

Domestic Urea Price Index:
According to data calculated by Feidoodoo, on January 16th, the small particle urea price index was 2333.45, down 6.68 from the previous day, a decrease of 0.29% from the previous day, and a 16.39% decrease year-on-year.

Urea Futures Market:
Today, the urea UR405 contract opened in 2081, with a high of 2107 and a low of 2065. It settled at 2084 and closed at 2075, up 13 from the previous trading day's settlement price, an increase of 0.63%, with a daily fluctuation range of 2065-2107. The Shandong region basis for the 05 contracts was 175, and there was a decrease of 5757 hands in positions today, with a total of 175.2 thousand hands held.

Spot Market Analysis:
Today, the domestic urea market prices continued to decline, but prices in East, Central, and South China adjusted slightly upwards, showing signs of a slight rebound in the market.

Specifically, prices in the Northeast region fell to 2340-2390 yuan/ton. In North China, prices fell to 2100-2380 yuan/ton. In East China, prices rose to 2230-2310 yuan/ton. In South China, prices rose to 2400-2430 yuan/ton. In Central China, prices of small and medium particles fell to 2220-2420 yuan/ton, and large particles fell to 2390-2430 yuan/ton. In Northwest China, prices fell to 2230-2240 yuan/ton. In Southwest China, prices remained stable at 2300-2800 yuan/ton.

Market Forecast:
From the factory side, manufacturers are mainly delivering prior orders, with pending orders continuously decreasing. Some factories are reducing prices to attract orders, and prices in some regions have slightly increased due to downstream demand. On the market side, there are signs of a slight rebound from the bottom, with a small increase in new order transactions and moderate follow-up from downstream, improving the market atmosphere compared to earlier. In terms of supply, there are signs of an increase, but the recovery speed is slow and may not meet expectations. In terms of demand, there is a slight increase in agricultural demand in some mainstream areas, with appropriate follow-up in agricultural purchases. Industrial sales are poor, with urea enterprises attracting downstream factory purchases with lower prices, and the transaction focus continues to move downward.

Overall, there is a slight improvement in urea market transactions, with regional agricultural demand following suit in small quantities. It is expected that in the short term, urea market prices will stabilize after stopping the decline.