Urea: The Printing Label Has Landed, And The Urea Market WIll Rise Again After The Mid-Autumn Festival
June 12, 2024, 9:21 AM
Jinlianchuang
2932
Guide
Highlights at a glance
During the Mid-Autumn Festival, China's domestic urea market saw a strong rebound, breaking the previous weak stalemate. Prices in Shandong, Shanxi, Henan, and other regions rose by 20–100 yuan/ton, with regional averages now at 2,410–2,520 yuan/ton. Holiday logistics disruptions and rising freight costs tightened supply, while upstream producers pushed for higher prices. The September 9 Indian RCF tender awarded OQ Trading at $668.25–675.25/ton CFR, translating to an equivalent domestic ex-factory price of 4,140–4,300 yuan/ton, creating a domestic-export price gap of 1,750–1,850 yuan/ton. This significant arbitrage opportunity boosted export interest, though legal inspection constraints limit near-term export volumes to around 150,000–200,000 tons. Supply-side dynamics show maintenance shutdowns in Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, and Henan, while resumptions in Jiangsu and Shanxi are offset by environmental pressures reducing output in Shanxi. Demand remains supported by steady com
During the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, the domestic urea market rose strongly, and the original trading atmosphere was obviously weakened and the overall weak stalemate was broken. The prices in Shandong, Shanxi, Henan and other regions have all risen. The price of enterprises has increased by 20-80 yuan/ton, and the local market in Shandong has increased by 90-100 yuan/ton. As of now, the mainstream regional prices refer to 2410-2520 yuan/ton.
Affected by the epidemic situation and holiday factors, the freight of some automobiles during the festival has risen, and as the low-priced supply of goods in the early stage of the market has been digested, the upstream voice continues to increase. follow up.
In addition, on September 9, the Indian RCF urea tender was held, and the lowest bidder was OQ Trading. The lowest price on the west coast is about $668.25/ton cfr, and the lowest on the east coast is about $675.25/ton cfr. According to Jinlianchuang’s calculations, the lowest price on the east coast, minus sea freight, minus profit tax, port miscellaneous and domestic freight, is equivalent to 4,260 yuan/ton for Shandong, 4,210 yuan/ton for Shanxi, 4,300 yuan/ton for Hebei, and 4,300 yuan/ton for Ordos. Factory 4140 yuan / ton. This time, the price difference between the internal and external disks is 1750-1850 yuan / ton, and the profit-making enterprises, exporters and foreign investors are allocated according to the actual transaction.
With such high profits, it is bound to attract exporters to apply for inspection and export. However, the domestic urea export is still subject to legal inspection, and the customs clearance time and export quantity are limited. It is heard that the supply of this printed label in China is expected to be 3-4 ships, that is, about 150,000 to 200,000 tons, although the domestic supply Limited, but still supports the mentality of the industry.
From the perspective of supply and demand, some enterprises in Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, and Henan have maintenance plans recently, and some enterprises in Jiangsu and Shanxi have resumed installations. In the later period, Shanxi is facing environmental protection pressure. Some enterprises have begun to reduce production. The overall maintenance expectations are greater than the recovery expectations. Domestic Nissan Supply is good in stages. At present, it is mid-September, and the demand for compound fertilizer is still increasing steadily. The overall operating rate of the board factory is not high, but there is still just need for production, and there is still a staged stocking demand for local agricultural needs. In addition, in the case of low social inventory, changes in the demand side are still the main factor that dominates the market.
To sum up, so far, the prices in Shandong, Henan, Hebei and other regions have all risen to about 2,500 yuan/ton. In the later stage, the cost side, the demand side, and the supply side will still be released in stages, and the willingness of enterprises to support prices is generally strong. The mid- and long-term urea market will continue to pull up and down repeatedly in the test of rapid rise and slow decline. The short-term market will continue to rise strongly, and the market sentiment and downstream follow-up will be followed in the period of concern.
Affected by the epidemic situation and holiday factors, the freight of some automobiles during the festival has risen, and as the low-priced supply of goods in the early stage of the market has been digested, the upstream voice continues to increase. follow up.
In addition, on September 9, the Indian RCF urea tender was held, and the lowest bidder was OQ Trading. The lowest price on the west coast is about $668.25/ton cfr, and the lowest on the east coast is about $675.25/ton cfr. According to Jinlianchuang’s calculations, the lowest price on the east coast, minus sea freight, minus profit tax, port miscellaneous and domestic freight, is equivalent to 4,260 yuan/ton for Shandong, 4,210 yuan/ton for Shanxi, 4,300 yuan/ton for Hebei, and 4,300 yuan/ton for Ordos. Factory 4140 yuan / ton. This time, the price difference between the internal and external disks is 1750-1850 yuan / ton, and the profit-making enterprises, exporters and foreign investors are allocated according to the actual transaction.
With such high profits, it is bound to attract exporters to apply for inspection and export. However, the domestic urea export is still subject to legal inspection, and the customs clearance time and export quantity are limited. It is heard that the supply of this printed label in China is expected to be 3-4 ships, that is, about 150,000 to 200,000 tons, although the domestic supply Limited, but still supports the mentality of the industry.
From the perspective of supply and demand, some enterprises in Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, and Henan have maintenance plans recently, and some enterprises in Jiangsu and Shanxi have resumed installations. In the later period, Shanxi is facing environmental protection pressure. Some enterprises have begun to reduce production. The overall maintenance expectations are greater than the recovery expectations. Domestic Nissan Supply is good in stages. At present, it is mid-September, and the demand for compound fertilizer is still increasing steadily. The overall operating rate of the board factory is not high, but there is still just need for production, and there is still a staged stocking demand for local agricultural needs. In addition, in the case of low social inventory, changes in the demand side are still the main factor that dominates the market.
To sum up, so far, the prices in Shandong, Henan, Hebei and other regions have all risen to about 2,500 yuan/ton. In the later stage, the cost side, the demand side, and the supply side will still be released in stages, and the willingness of enterprises to support prices is generally strong. The mid- and long-term urea market will continue to pull up and down repeatedly in the test of rapid rise and slow decline. The short-term market will continue to rise strongly, and the market sentiment and downstream follow-up will be followed in the period of concern.
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June 12, 2024, 9:21 AM
June 12, 2024, 9:21 AM
