Liquid Ammonia Rebounds As Scheduled, How Will The Market Develop?
June 12, 2024, 9:21 AM
Jinlianchuang
1967
Explore the recent rise in synthetic ammonia prices and market dynamics in China, highlighting key factors and future outlook.
More than half of the "Golden Nine" has passed, and the domestic synthetic ammonia market has lived up to expectations. Taking Shandong as an example, as of September 19, the average price was 4,001 yuan/ton, an increase of 18.66% from 3,371 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, returning to the high price of 4,000 yuan/ton again. However, the short-term higher-than-expected rally is bound to increase downstream resistance, coupled with the recent emergence of negative factors, the market consolidation and wait-and-see attitude has increased.
Since September, coal prices have risen steadily again, and high costs have become an important factor supporting the rapid rebound of ammonia market prices. In addition, the continuous decline of mainstream prices in the previous ammonia market has forced some fixed-bed process ammonia companies to drop due to cost pressures. Due to the limited market conditions, some ammonia companies in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Anhui and other places have also entered into maintenance one after another due to the load and production suspension. Although the downstream demand is limited, the obvious reduction in the market has promoted the improvement of the trading atmosphere, and the northern region has taken the lead in pulling up. . In the southern region, after the previous period of electricity was lifted, with the support of the downstream bidding for Zhanjiang export collection port and Fujian factory maintenance, the market conditions in the two lakes and East China also developed well. change.
However, since the mainstream of the main producing areas has risen to 4,000 yuan/ton again since last weekend, the market has stabilized and the intention to wait and see has increased. The price increase of enterprises mostly depends on the low-priced orders in the early stage, and the follow-up of high-priced new orders is insufficient. Moreover, some of the downstream supporting synthetic ammonia plants of the caprolactam industry are expected to be put into operation in the near future. The double negative situation of increasing supply and weakening demand will dominate the market trend. Under pressure fell back expectations.
On the whole, the negative factors in the market will be highlighted next, but the National Day holiday and important meetings will be held soon, and the trend of coal prices will continue to rise under the support of heating in winter. In addition, factors such as the uncertainty of environmental protection production restrictions in Shanxi seem to be There is still good support for the market, and probably the domestic ammonia market will face a wait-and-see situation in the short term.
Since September, coal prices have risen steadily again, and high costs have become an important factor supporting the rapid rebound of ammonia market prices. In addition, the continuous decline of mainstream prices in the previous ammonia market has forced some fixed-bed process ammonia companies to drop due to cost pressures. Due to the limited market conditions, some ammonia companies in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Anhui and other places have also entered into maintenance one after another due to the load and production suspension. Although the downstream demand is limited, the obvious reduction in the market has promoted the improvement of the trading atmosphere, and the northern region has taken the lead in pulling up. . In the southern region, after the previous period of electricity was lifted, with the support of the downstream bidding for Zhanjiang export collection port and Fujian factory maintenance, the market conditions in the two lakes and East China also developed well. change.
However, since the mainstream of the main producing areas has risen to 4,000 yuan/ton again since last weekend, the market has stabilized and the intention to wait and see has increased. The price increase of enterprises mostly depends on the low-priced orders in the early stage, and the follow-up of high-priced new orders is insufficient. Moreover, some of the downstream supporting synthetic ammonia plants of the caprolactam industry are expected to be put into operation in the near future. The double negative situation of increasing supply and weakening demand will dominate the market trend. Under pressure fell back expectations.
On the whole, the negative factors in the market will be highlighted next, but the National Day holiday and important meetings will be held soon, and the trend of coal prices will continue to rise under the support of heating in winter. In addition, factors such as the uncertainty of environmental protection production restrictions in Shanxi seem to be There is still good support for the market, and probably the domestic ammonia market will face a wait-and-see situation in the short term.
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June 12, 2024, 9:21 AM
June 12, 2024, 9:21 AM