As May 1 is approaching, the ammonia market hits high again
June 12, 2024, 9:21 AM
Jinlianchuang
2567
Guide
Highlights at a glance
In mid-to-late April 2022, the domestic epidemic disrupted cross-regional transportation, compounding challenges ahead of the May Day holiday, when hazardous chemical transport restrictions further tightened. Despite typical pre-holiday market stability, urea prices surged due to shifting supply-demand dynamics and strong downstream demand. Major producers in Shandong and Hebei raised prices, with some increases reaching 250 yuan/ton, boosting market sentiment. The urea market, supported by agricultural and industrial demand, export orders, and low inventory pressure, broke previous highs in regions like Hebei and Henan, closely linking price trends with synthetic ammonia profitability. While some plants resumed operations or increased loads, others underwent maintenance or production cuts, creating a mixed supply outlook. With summer storage, compound fertilizer restocking, and potential export growth underway, urea demand remains resilient, providing strong upward momentum for synthe
In mid-to-late April, due to the repeated impact of the domestic epidemic, cross-regional long-distance transportation was restricted. At the end of the month, the May Day holiday will be faced, and high-speed transportation will be further restricted. According to the price trend in previous years, the pre-holiday market should have maintained stability in the general situation, and mainly focused on smooth inventory reduction and narrow adjustment of shipments. This year, the market has broken the stalemate again due to the adjustment of supply and demand and the abnormal rise of downstream urea. Shandong, Hebei and other major producers The mainstream of the district pushed up along the market, and a factory recently increased by 250 yuan / ton, driving the market atmosphere.
After the chaotic stalemate in the early stage, the urea market began to rise again in the middle of this month, driven by the downstream industrial and agricultural demand, the staged support of local export orders, and the differentiated development of market supply and demand under the influence of the epidemic. The high point of the year in 2022, and some regions such as Hebei and Henan have broken through the high point of the year. The current profit is almost the same as that of synthetic ammonia, and the price linkage is further strengthened. The change in the inter-regional supply and demand situation caused by the current epidemic is still the biggest factor of uncertainty in the near future. In addition to the follow-up of compound fertilizer replenishment warehouse purchases, the demand for local summer storage and warehouse construction, the periodic increase in exports, and the absence of pressure on most companies’ inventories, the urea market will not be under pressure. It will still be easy to rise and difficult to fall, which will once again form a strong support for the price trend of synthetic ammonia.
According to the regular press conference of the Ministry of Transport, the "May Day" holiday in 2022 will be from April 30 to May 4, a total of 5 days. In the event of a vehicle traffic accident, vehicles transporting hazardous chemicals in most provinces will be banned from high-speed vehicles, and the downstream will also use the period before the festival to actively purchase and stock up. At present, Anhui Quansheng's maintenance plant has been restored, Hebei Jinshi's load has been increased, Hebei Kaiyue plant has a restart plan, Luzhou Yishui urea has been shut down for production, some plants in Shandong Alliance have been overhauled, and Hebei Tianyuan production has been adjusted and reduced, and the market supply has increased and decreased. The mentality is different. Under the support of the urea market, some companies that are affected by the reduction area and ship unpressurized ammonia continue to try to increase.
On the whole, the ammonia market continues to develop according to the regionalization of supply and demand. The reduction area is driven by the market atmosphere. It is not ruled out that it is expected to continue to increase before the holiday. However, the price in the area where the export is mainly reduced and the warehouse is relatively firm. In the future, we need to pay attention to the recovery situation of the early maintenance and downstream. And the investment of new production capacity of synthetic ammonia in North China and East China.
After the chaotic stalemate in the early stage, the urea market began to rise again in the middle of this month, driven by the downstream industrial and agricultural demand, the staged support of local export orders, and the differentiated development of market supply and demand under the influence of the epidemic. The high point of the year in 2022, and some regions such as Hebei and Henan have broken through the high point of the year. The current profit is almost the same as that of synthetic ammonia, and the price linkage is further strengthened. The change in the inter-regional supply and demand situation caused by the current epidemic is still the biggest factor of uncertainty in the near future. In addition to the follow-up of compound fertilizer replenishment warehouse purchases, the demand for local summer storage and warehouse construction, the periodic increase in exports, and the absence of pressure on most companies’ inventories, the urea market will not be under pressure. It will still be easy to rise and difficult to fall, which will once again form a strong support for the price trend of synthetic ammonia.
According to the regular press conference of the Ministry of Transport, the "May Day" holiday in 2022 will be from April 30 to May 4, a total of 5 days. In the event of a vehicle traffic accident, vehicles transporting hazardous chemicals in most provinces will be banned from high-speed vehicles, and the downstream will also use the period before the festival to actively purchase and stock up. At present, Anhui Quansheng's maintenance plant has been restored, Hebei Jinshi's load has been increased, Hebei Kaiyue plant has a restart plan, Luzhou Yishui urea has been shut down for production, some plants in Shandong Alliance have been overhauled, and Hebei Tianyuan production has been adjusted and reduced, and the market supply has increased and decreased. The mentality is different. Under the support of the urea market, some companies that are affected by the reduction area and ship unpressurized ammonia continue to try to increase.
On the whole, the ammonia market continues to develop according to the regionalization of supply and demand. The reduction area is driven by the market atmosphere. It is not ruled out that it is expected to continue to increase before the holiday. However, the price in the area where the export is mainly reduced and the warehouse is relatively firm. In the future, we need to pay attention to the recovery situation of the early maintenance and downstream. And the investment of new production capacity of synthetic ammonia in North China and East China.
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June 12, 2024, 9:21 AM
June 12, 2024, 9:21 AM