October 9 Phosphate Fertilizer Daily : Weaker Cost Support and Sluggish Demand Recovery Keep the Market in a Weak Pattern

Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP) Price Index:

According to Feidoodoo's data: on October 9, the domestic MAP 55% powder index was 3,791.25, down 0.72% from the previous working day; the 55% granular index was 4,300.00, flat from the previous working day; and the 58% powder index was 4,350.00, flat from the previous working day.

MAP Market Analysis & Forecast:

Today, the domestic MAP market continued to run weak. On the supply side, most plants were still executing earlier orders and maintaining their price-floor policy; factories and traders mostly issued no clear quotes, and actual deals were settled through negotiation. On the market side, supply was ample and trading sentiment was deadlocked and quiet. On the demand side, some compound fertilizer producers downstream released some demand, but purchasing remained mainly need-based, market sentiment was fairly cautious, and demand remained relatively weak. On the raw-material side, domestic sulfur prices moved sideways today with divergent trends; sulfur port inventories remained at a relatively low level overall; sulfuric acid prices fluctuated within a narrow range; the phosphate rock market was mainly stable; and raw-material prices on the cost side consolidated within a narrow range, weakening their support for enterprises. Overall, the MAP market currently maintains a pattern of marginally weakening cost support alongside sluggish demand recovery, and is expected to remain weak in the short term. Going forward, close attention should be paid to raw-material price trends, the pace of downstream autumn fertilizer demand, and the pass-through impact of geopolitical developments on the cost side.

In specific terms, regional market prices are as follows:

MAP Market Prices (RMB/t)

Diammonium Phosphate (DAP) Price Index:

According to Feidoodoo's data: on October 9, the domestic DAP mainstream 64% granular index was 4,608.33, flat from the previous working day; the 60% brown index was 4,250.00, down 7.61% from the previous working day; and the 57% content index was 4,125.00, down 0.90% from the previous working day.

DAP Market Analysis & Forecast:

Today, the domestic DAP market continued to run weakly steady. On the supply side, some enterprises focused mainly on shipping previously pending orders; enterprise quotes held firm, and actual deals remained subject to negotiation. On the market side, sentiment was fairly wait-and-see. On the demand side, the release of grassroots demand downstream was slow; downstream purchasing was mostly concentrated in small, need-based orders; participants mostly held a cautious wait-and-see stance; large-scale purchasing had not yet started; some traders came under sentiment pressure; and market prices drifted lower. On the raw-material side, domestic sulfur prices ran weakly steady today; sulfur port inventories remained at a relatively low level overall; sulfuric acid prices continued to decline; the phosphate rock market was mainly stable; and raw-material prices on the cost side all declined, weakening their support for the market. Overall, the DAP market is expected to continue consolidating with a weak bias in the short term. Going forward, close attention should be paid to changes in raw-material prices, downstream demand follow-through, and later adjustments to export policy.

In specific terms, regional market prices are as follows:

DAP Market Prices (RMB/t)

Sulfur Market Prices:

According to Feidoodoo's data: on October 9, the granular sulfur price at Zhenjiang Port was RMB 7,100/t, flat from the previous working day; the granular sulfur price at Dafeng Port was RMB 7,080/t, flat from the previous working day; the lump/powder sulfur price at Zhenjiang Port was RMB 7,050/t, flat from the previous working day; the lump/powder sulfur price at Dafeng Port was RMB 7,030/t, flat from the previous working day; the East China solid sulfur price was RMB 7,200/t, flat from the previous working day; and the East China liquid sulfur price was RMB 7,295/t, flat from the previous working day.

Sulfur Market Analysis & Forecast:

Today, regional trends in the domestic sulfur spot market diverged, with port and refinery-production-area markets performing differently and the overall market seeing a mix of bullish and bearish factors. On the port side, granular sulfur at Yangtze River ports was mainly range-bound in the morning. News of slightly lower offers emerged from the international market; the focus of external negotiations in some Southeast Asian markets eased somewhat, and some downstream buyers intended to press their bid prices lower, though most overseas holders still had a strong inclination to hold prices firm. By contrast, trading sentiment at domestic ports was generally subdued, with very few physical spot deals concluded on the floor; trading was concentrated more in supplementary orders from long-term contract customers, and follow-through on scattered new spot orders was limited. The Shandong liquid sulfur market, meanwhile, showed a consolidating-upward pattern. Affected by reduced operating rates at some local independent refineries together with maintenance at certain units, the effective supply released locally contracted somewhat; downstream buyers continued to follow up on a need-based basis, need-based support emerged in the independent refineries' auction process, and this pushed the regional liquid-sulfur negotiation focus slightly higher. Overall, the sulfur market currently shows prominent regional divergence. Downward news from the external market has exerted some pressure on port-market sentiment, while the tightening supply brought by unit changes at domestic refineries has in turn supported liquid-sulfur prices; the downstream phosphate compound fertilizer and chemical sectors have not yet shown concentrated restocking, and overall trading volume in the market remains difficult to expand effectively. In the short term, the sulfur market may continue its divergent, volatile pattern. Going forward, continued attention should be paid to the transmission trend of external prices, the progress of maintenance at domestic refinery units, and the start-up pace of raw-material restocking by downstream industries.

In specific terms, regional market prices are as follows:

Sulfur Regional Market Quotations at a Glance (RMB/t)

Phosphate Fertilizer Market News & Updates:

Oct 9: The delivered price of MAP 55% powder in the Anhui market was around RMB 3,800-3,900/t, quoted stable.

Oct 9: The delivered price of MAP 55% powder in the Northeast market was around RMB 3,900-4,000/t, quoted stable.

Oct 9: The delivered price of MAP 55% powder in the Henan market was around RMB 3,750-3,800/t, quoted lower.

Oct 9: The mainstream ex-works price of MAP 55% powder in the Hubei market was around RMB 3,650-3,750/t, quoted lower.

Oct 9: The delivered price of MAP 55% powder in the Jiangsu market was around RMB 3,750-3,820/t, quoted lower.

Oct 9: The delivered price of MAP 55% powder in the Shandong market was around RMB 3,750-3,850/t, quoted lower.

Oct 9: The delivered price of MAP 55% powder in the Sichuan market was around RMB 3,650-3,750/t, quoted stable.

Oct 9: The ex-works price of MAP 55% powder in the Yunnan market was around RMB 3,700-3,800/t, quoted stable.

Oct 9: The ex-works self-pickup price of DAP 60% in the Shaanxi region was RMB 4,600-4,650/t, quoted stable.

Oct 9: The ex-works self-pickup price of DAP 64% in the Northeast region was RMB 5,000-5,050/t, quoted stable.

Oct 9: The self-pickup price of DAP 57% in the Hebei region was RMB 4,150-4,200/t, quoted lower.

Oct 9: The ex-works self-pickup price of DAP 64% in the Hubei region was RMB 4,800-4,850/t, quoted stable.

Oct 9: The ex-warehouse price of DAP 64% in the Shandong region was RMB 4,700-4,900/t, quoted stable; the self-pickup station price of DAP 57% was RMB 4,100-4,200/t, quoted stable.