October 9 International Forex News

Gold gains more than 1% on Friday as the dollar and Treasury yields retreat

October 9 — Gold rose more than 1% on Friday, supported by a softer US dollar, lower US Treasury yields and weaker oil prices, after prices fell to a two-month low on Wednesday. Market participants are weighing persistent inflation concerns against the future path of Federal Reserve interest rate policy. The pause in the dollar's rally has made dollar-denominated gold cheaper for holders of other currencies. Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield declined for a second consecutive session. US President Trump said the United States will not launch strikes against Iran before the US congressional midterm elections in November, easing Middle East supply concerns and pulling oil prices lower. Tony Sage, Chief Executive Officer of Critical Metals, said: "The prospect of further monetary policy tightening could still leave gold exposed to downside risk... Looking ahead, traders will be watching upcoming economic data closely, as those releases may offer further clues on monetary policy and shape market sentiment ahead of the Fed's October meeting. If the data or policy guidance come in weaker than expected, yields could fall further, which would lend support to gold prices."

82.3% probability the Fed holds rates unchanged in October

October 9 — According to CME FedWatch: the probability that the Federal Reserve leaves rates unchanged through October is 82.3%, with a 17.7% probability of a cumulative 25bp hike. By December, the probability of no change is 18.7%, with a 67.6% probability of a cumulative 25bp hike and a 13.7% probability of a cumulative 50bp hike.