Compound fertilizer is at a high stalemate, and downstream receiving efforts have declined
June 12, 2024, 9:21 AM
Jinlianchuang
3200
Guide
Highlights at a glance
As June marks the peak wheat harvest and the transition from summer to autumn fertilizer seasons, China's domestic compound fertilizer market remains strong amid tight supply and high raw material costs. Prices for 45% compound fertilizers are steady at 3,900–4,300 yuan/ton, supported by elevated prices of key inputs like monoammonium, DAP, and potash, despite a slight dip in urea costs. While raw material strength continues to underpin compound fertilizer pricing, downstream demand remains lukewarm due to price resistance, with buyers adopting a cautious, wait-and-see approach. Limited inventory and small-order concerns further constrain market activity. Although cost pressures keep quotations high, weak transaction volumes and declining buyer sentiment suggest limited near-term upside, with new order follow-through likely to remain subdued.
Entering June, it is the harvest season of wheat, the summer fertilizer market is coming to an end one after another, and the autumn fertilizer market is advancing. The domestic compound fertilizer market is running at a high level, and the low-end supply is further reduced. The price of raw materials has been at a high level for a long time, and companies are still under pressure, and there is little room for profit. The current domestic mainstream factory reference is 45% s3*15 at 4100-4300 yuan/ton, and 45% cl3*15 at 3900-4100 yuan/ton. The high price of raw materials is good for supporting the price of compound fertilizers to rise all the way. In the case of continuous increase in upstream costs, compound fertilizer enterprises mostly choose to focus on high prices, but downstream demand has been unstable and not hot, and most of them are just in need of replenishment. However, due to the high price, the market transaction was not good, and the transaction volume was unsatisfactory, and the support was obviously insufficient.
In terms of raw materials, although the price of urea fluctuated this month, both ups and downs coexisted, and the current price has loosened. Up to now, the mainstream of Shandong urea small and medium granules has left the factory at 3,110-3,130 yuan/ton, with a downward adjustment of 50 yuan/ton. However, the price of monoammonium is firm, and the ex-factory price of 55% powder in Hubei has risen to 4600-4700 yuan/ton, with an increase of 150 yuan/ton. The factory reference of DAP Hubei 55% powder is 4800 yuan/ton. The potash fertilizer market is firm and rising, and the price of 62% white potash at the port is firm. At present, the mainstream reference price is 5300-5400 yuan/ton, and the first arrival of 60% salt lake crystal is 5050-5150 yuan/ton. From the perspective of the main raw material market, the cost support of compound fertilizer has increased more than decreased, which is also the fundamental reason for the increase in the price of compound fertilizer.
The price of compound fertilizer keeps rising. Faced with the high price, it is always difficult for the downstream to accept it. It has always maintained a wait-and-see attitude and paid attention to the market dynamics. The mentality of enterprises has also become very cautious. Not only downstream traders are afraid of heights, but enterprises are also afraid of heights. Small orders due to high prices have always been a big concern for enterprises, but they dare not take orders rashly when they come. Faced with the high price of raw materials and the shortage of supply, we should be more cautious about the subsequent unknown market development, and the product inventory is relatively limited.
Therefore, in the short term, the mainstream quotations of domestic compound fertilizers will remain high in the face of high raw materials, but the psychology of downstream resistance to high prices still exists, and the follow-up of new orders may not be as good as expected.
In terms of raw materials, although the price of urea fluctuated this month, both ups and downs coexisted, and the current price has loosened. Up to now, the mainstream of Shandong urea small and medium granules has left the factory at 3,110-3,130 yuan/ton, with a downward adjustment of 50 yuan/ton. However, the price of monoammonium is firm, and the ex-factory price of 55% powder in Hubei has risen to 4600-4700 yuan/ton, with an increase of 150 yuan/ton. The factory reference of DAP Hubei 55% powder is 4800 yuan/ton. The potash fertilizer market is firm and rising, and the price of 62% white potash at the port is firm. At present, the mainstream reference price is 5300-5400 yuan/ton, and the first arrival of 60% salt lake crystal is 5050-5150 yuan/ton. From the perspective of the main raw material market, the cost support of compound fertilizer has increased more than decreased, which is also the fundamental reason for the increase in the price of compound fertilizer.
The price of compound fertilizer keeps rising. Faced with the high price, it is always difficult for the downstream to accept it. It has always maintained a wait-and-see attitude and paid attention to the market dynamics. The mentality of enterprises has also become very cautious. Not only downstream traders are afraid of heights, but enterprises are also afraid of heights. Small orders due to high prices have always been a big concern for enterprises, but they dare not take orders rashly when they come. Faced with the high price of raw materials and the shortage of supply, we should be more cautious about the subsequent unknown market development, and the product inventory is relatively limited.
Therefore, in the short term, the mainstream quotations of domestic compound fertilizers will remain high in the face of high raw materials, but the psychology of downstream resistance to high prices still exists, and the follow-up of new orders may not be as good as expected.
Recommended for you
-
International Fertilizer Market - Potash Giants Report First Quarter: Signs of Recovery in Potash Demand! Meanwhile, Russian Fertilizer Exports to the US Reach Annual High5021
-
Phosphate Fertilizer Weekly Report: Supported by Pending Orders and Costs, Firm Prices4778
-
Urea Weekly Review: Cautious Buying and Slow Follow-Up, Prices Hold Steady4826
-
Urea Daily Review: Weakened Supply-Demand Support, Enterprises Lower Prices to Attract Orders4756
-
Phosphate Fertilizer Daily Review: Pending Orders Support Prices, Stability in the Short Term4772
June 12, 2024, 9:21 AM
June 12, 2024, 9:21 AM
