Daily Macro Morning Briefing 2026-11-12

Global Key Indices — Latest Readings

Domestic Macroeconomic Indices

2026 Macroeconomic Indices

Contents

Domestic News

1. Head of the National Energy Administration meets with the CEO of Trafigura

2. People's Bank of China: continue to implement an appropriately accommodative monetary policy and make comprehensive, timely adjustments to policy tools

3. Ministry of Commerce: deepen economic and trade cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative and implement zero tariffs for all African countries with diplomatic ties

4. Two national standards for carbon dioxide capture, utilization and storage officially released

5. State Administration for Market Regulation approves a batch of important national standards

6. Several solar-themed ETFs fall more than 2%

7. Shanghai Ailu: the new-material photovoltaic frame products of Aina New Energy suit offshore solar and other scenarios, and do not involve aerospace applications

8. CSRC: will actively cooperate with judicial authorities in applying representative litigation procedures

International News

1. Chilean transport protests continue as rising fuel costs threaten agricultural exports

2. Trump-Putin diesel deal stalls as tankers bound for the US change course and American firms refuse cargoes

3. Cameron warns Burnham against pushing for the UK to rejoin the EU, saying it could damage negotiations

4. Gulf states split over Trump's continued blockade of Iran: some back pressure, others fear the economic cost

5. Fed's Goolsbee: price pressures appear to be spreading and services inflation has not eased

6. US media: Treasury Secretary Bessent moves into a military base after Iranian threats

7. Midterm election loss does not change tariff policy as the White House and business community diverge further

8. Major Russian oil export hub attacked; impact on loading operations yet to be assessed

Domestic News

1. Head of the National Energy Administration meets with the CEO of Trafigura

On November 11, Wang Jianbo, deputy head of China's National Energy Administration, met in Beijing with Trafigura CEO Jeremy Weir, and the two sides exchanged views on energy security and trends in global oil and natural gas markets. Officials from the NEA's Oil and Gas Department, Planning Department and International Department attended the meeting.

2. People's Bank of China: continue to implement an appropriately accommodative monetary policy and make comprehensive, timely adjustments to policy tools

The People's Bank of China said it will continue to implement an appropriately accommodative monetary policy to create a suitable monetary and financial environment for steady economic growth, high-quality development and the stable functioning of financial markets. It will make policy more forward-looking, flexible and targeted, and, in light of domestic and international economic and financial conditions and financial market performance, use and adjust monetary policy tools in a comprehensive and timely manner, calibrating the intensity, pace and timing of policy implementation. It will keep liquidity ample and social financing conditions relatively loose, and guide the growth of aggregate social financing and the money supply to match the targets for economic growth and the overall price level. It will steadily and orderly advance reform and improvement of the monetary policy operational framework so that short-end money market rates run more steadily around the policy rate.

3. Ministry of Commerce: deepen economic and trade cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative and implement zero tariffs for all African countries with diplomatic ties

On November 11, the National Development and Reform Commission held a press conference in its "Striving for the 15th Five-Year Plan" series to brief on Belt and Road cooperation. Song Lihong, first-level inspector of the Ministry of Commerce's Department of General Affairs, said that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period MOFCOM will follow the plan's outline, continue to deepen economic and trade cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative and promote innovation in trade. It will deepen cooperation with partner countries in green trade and cross-border e-commerce, promote imports and exports of products from emerging industries in foreign trade, expand imports of quality goods from partner countries and better support their industrial development. China will continue to grant zero-tariff treatment to the least developed countries with which it has diplomatic relations and implement zero tariffs for all African countries with diplomatic ties. It will vigorously develop trade in services, promote cooperation in R&D and design trade, advance the "Thousand Sails Going Global" action plan for foreign cultural trade, and steadily expand digital trade.

4. Two national standards for carbon dioxide capture, utilization and storage officially released

It was learned today that the State Administration for Market Regulation has approved and released two national standards for carbon dioxide capture, utilization and storage (CCUS): "Assessment Method for the Potential of Geological Utilization and Storage of Carbon Dioxide in Oil and Gas Areas, Part 2: Geological Storage" and "Experimental Method for Evaluating Carbon Dioxide Storage Capacity in Geological Bodies in Oil and Gas Areas", securing the "last mile" of carbon storage (a technology that replaces direct emissions by capturing and safely storing carbon dioxide). CCUS is a key technology for deep decarbonization of the petroleum industry and for helping achieve the dual-carbon goals. As China's CCUS demonstration projects continue to advance and industrialization accelerates, the industry's demand for unified technical specifications keeps rising.

5. State Administration for Market Regulation approves a batch of important national standards

Recently the State Administration for Market Regulation (Standardization Administration of China) approved and released 673 important national standards and national standardization guiding technical documents, including 21 mandatory national standards, 615 recommended national standards and 37 national standardization guiding technical documents. They cover high and new technology, traditional industries, work safety, agricultural development and people's daily lives. Once released, this batch of standards will play an important role in promoting high-quality industrial development, improving quality of life and safeguarding lives and property.

6. Several solar-themed ETFs fall more than 2%

The A-share solar sector rose and then pulled back, with ICBC Credit Suisse Solar ETF, GF Solar Leader ETF, China Universal Solar ETF and ChinaAMC Solar ETF all falling more than 2%.

7. Shanghai Ailu: the new-material photovoltaic frame products of Aina New Energy suit offshore solar and other scenarios, and do not involve aerospace applications

Shanghai Ailu said on an investor interaction platform that the new-material photovoltaic frame products of its controlled subsidiary Aina New Energy are suitable for offshore solar, desert solar, rooftop solar and other scenarios, and do not involve aerospace or similar applications. The company said progress on the relevant products should be based on information disclosed in its periodic reports.

8. CSRC: will actively cooperate with judicial authorities in applying representative litigation procedures

In response to reporters' questions, the China Securities Regulatory Commission said that on November 11 the Beijing Financial Court issued a registration announcement of rights for a special representative litigation concerning Dongfangtong, confirming that the securities misrepresentation liability dispute would be heard under special representative litigation procedures, and setting out how investors may join the litigation, the legal consequences, and the right and period for opting out. The court's acceptance of investors' lawsuits and its use of special representative litigation procedures represent strong protection of investors' rights and a strong pursuit of liability for illegal infringement. The CSRC will continue to support the China Securities Investor Services Center in fulfilling its public-service function of supporting and representing investors in civil litigation, actively cooperate with judicial authorities in applying representative litigation procedures, earnestly safeguard investors' lawful rights and interests, maintain a sound market ecosystem and promote high-quality development of the capital market.

International News

1. Chilean transport protests continue as rising fuel costs threaten agricultural exports

Chilean truck drivers and intercity bus operators launched protests on Wednesday over fuel prices and road tolls, causing traffic congestion in many parts of the country and threatening exports of fresh produce at the start of the agricultural season. Road blockades that had built up gradually since Monday have added fresh pressure on the government of President Jose Antonio Kast. Eight months into Kast's term, Chilean economic activity has continued to contract and his approval rating has also declined. Government officials and protest organizers met again on Wednesday morning after talks on Tuesday failed to make progress. Hundreds of trucks currently occupy Route 5, Chile's main north-south artery, and other roads; Route 5 is also part of the Pan-American Highway system. On Wednesday the Chilean government submitted a bill to Congress to cap increases in gasoline and diesel prices at 20 pesos per litre (about USD 0.02) for 90 days, in order to cushion consumers from swings in international oil prices. Chile depends on imports for almost all of its oil. The trucking association of Malleco and Cautin in south-central Chile said the government's proposal is still insufficient. In a statement, the association said higher diesel prices have sharply raised freight operating costs, squeezed members' margins and threatened the survival of many small businesses.

2. Trump-Putin diesel deal stalls as tankers bound for the US change course and American firms refuse cargoes

Trump sought to ease US fuel price pressure by importing Russian diesel, but a month after the agreement was announced no additional Russian diesel has reached the United States. Several tankers have changed course in succession, as oil companies fear violating sanctions rules and becoming targets of congressional investigations.

3. Cameron warns Burnham against pushing for the UK to rejoin the EU, saying it could damage negotiations

Former British Prime Minister David Cameron warned Prime Minister Andy Burnham not to push for the UK to rejoin the European Union, arguing that reopening the debate could weaken Britain's negotiating position in improving relations with the EU. Cameron said the UK should focus on being the EU's best partner rather than overturning the result of the 2016 Brexit referendum. Burnham had previously said Brexit had done more harm than good and that options including rejoining the EU, joining a customs union or joining the single market were all under consideration. Britain and the EU will hold a summit later this month, with plans to advance agreements on youth mobility, agricultural trade and linking carbon emissions markets. Cameron also opposed joining a customs union, saying it would force the UK to give up trade deals struck with other countries after Brexit. He argued that Britain's current economic problems stem mainly from government overspending, excessive borrowing, high taxes and over-regulation, rather than from Brexit.

4. Gulf states split over Trump's continued blockade of Iran: some back pressure, others fear the economic cost

Analysts say Gulf states want to weaken Iran but are unsure whether the United States can sustain the blockade over the long term. Without an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the conflict, some countries may seek separate arrangements with Iran.

5. Fed's Goolsbee: price pressures appear to be spreading and services inflation has not eased

Fed official Austan Goolsbee said the latest government inflation report shows the underlying trend has not improved, which is "somewhat concerning"; of particular note, price pressures appear to be spreading beyond energy prices or artificial intelligence (AI)-related sectors. "Services inflation has not come down, and this is likely not driven mainly by oil prices, tariffs or other factors that might prove transitory," Goolsbee said. "We therefore face a real, evolving inflation problem that must be addressed." "What worries me is that this inflationary pressure is turning into an overall overheating of the economy — prices across a wide range of goods and services are rising too fast, well above our 2% inflation target."

6. US media: Treasury Secretary Bessent moves into a military base after Iranian threats

The New York Times reported, citing three people familiar with the matter, that US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently moved out of his home and into a military base after receiving threats from Iran against his personal safety. These people said US officials concluded in recent weeks that Iranian plots against current and former US officials had entered a more advanced stage, a judgment based in part on intelligence about threats targeting Bessent. Since August, they said, Bessent has led a pressure campaign aimed at economically isolating Iran through harsher sanctions and restrictions on trade routes. That role has made him one of the US government officials Iran most wants to harm.

7. Midterm election loss does not change tariff policy as the White House and business community diverge further

After the US midterm elections, the White House reaffirmed that it will continue to pursue Trump's tariff policy. But the latest poll shows 62% of Americans support repealing the tariffs in question, and persistently high prices are adding to the political pressure on the White House.

8. Major Russian oil export hub attacked; impact on loading operations yet to be assessed

Alexander Drozdenko, governor of Russia's Leningrad Oblast, said on Wednesday that drones attacked Ust-Luga, one of Russia's largest oil export hubs on the Baltic coast, sparking a fire and injuring three workers. Drozdenko said several drones struck the port area. According to preliminary figures, air defenses shot down 150 drones overnight. He had earlier noted that a substation at Ust-Luga had ceased operating. It is not yet clear whether the attack affected oil loading operations. The port handles exports of Russian crude oil and refined products. In late March, a series of Ukrainian attacks damaged port infrastructure, halting oil loading from March 25 until early April. The disruptions at Ust-Luga and the nearby port of Primorsk prompted Russian refiners to begin seeking alternative export routes.

International Shipping News

Baltic Freight Indices

Container Shipping — Europe Route

Bearish Reality Priced In, Rate-Increase Expectations Still Intact

The main Europe route container shipping contract continued to run on the firm side, broadly following the logic of funds exiting after bearish factors had been priced in. Given that Maersk has opened flat at USD 3,000 for several consecutive weeks, the overall November rate-increase round has essentially failed to materialize; nevertheless, there is still some expectation support for prices stabilizing and recovering in December. The board has currently found a temporary equilibrium near the valuation anchor implied by week-47 FAK rates, and the pricing of nearby contracts has essentially completed its switch from "rate-increase letter promises" to "actual concluded levels". The November contract has moved within a narrow range, and with some expectation of December increases still in place, once the bearish news of disproven earlier rate hikes and spot anchoring have both settled at reasonable thresholds, the board has some room to revise upward — though the extent will need to be matched by the real strength of spot rate increases. The near-term pricing driver on the board remains carriers' quotations and the question of December rate increases; going forward, given that carriers usually begin signing long-term contracts in December and that cargo volumes generally improve marginally in late November, December increases are usually partly realized, so the market still has expectation support for rate increases in far months. Overall, the market trades around carriers' actual quotations, and with the main contract currently in a valuation range where bearish news has been priced in, buying on dips may remain the prevailing approach until December rate-increase expectations are disproved.

International Shipping Developments

1. Delays at two major ports in Europe and South America

Due to security arrangements for a high-level meeting, roads around the Port of Dublin in Ireland have been subject to traffic controls since November 10, and truck access to the port may be delayed. Meanwhile, although a truck drivers' strike at the Port of San Antonio in Chile has ended, it left a backlog of about 2,500 containers, and inland transport will take time to recover.

2. Hapag-Lloyd opens two new Latin America services

Hapag-Lloyd announced it will launch two independent Asia-to-Latin America services: AMX, connecting Mexico and the west coast of Latin America, and ASX, connecting the east coast of South America. Both services call directly at Qingdao, giving northern Chinese ports additional direct options for Latin American cargo from next year. First sailing schedules will be announced before launch.

3. Intra-Asia index falls USD 26 week on week

Drewry's Intra-Asia Container Freight Index fell USD 26 week on week last week to USD 1,478 per FEU. Shanghai-Singapore rates bucked the trend with a 9% rise, Shanghai-Jakarta fell 8% to USD 2,538, and Shanghai-Busan fell 2% to USD 1,132, showing divergent movements across lanes.