Daily Macro Morning Briefing 2026-11-05

Global Key Indices — Latest Readings

Domestic Macroeconomic Indices

2026 Macroeconomic Indices

Contents

Domestic News

1. Ministry of Commerce: Recent China-Canada economic and trade consultations have made positive progress, including further extension of relevant exemption measures under the preliminary joint arrangement

2. The People's Bank of China steps up implementation of the relending policy for share buybacks and increased holdings

3. Nearly 100 cooperation projects: China-Africa renewable energy cooperation continues to open up new tracks

4. Relevant departments will roll out targeted policy measures on the circulation of key commodities

5. NDRC: Further removal of the "invisible fences" hindering the development of the modern circulation system

6. Autumn grain acreage is expected to increase slightly this year; more than 90% has been harvested and a bumper harvest is a foregone conclusion

7. NDRC: A number of key agricultural wholesale markets will be built

8. State Administration for Market Regulation issues the Provisions on Discretion in Administrative Penalties for Market Regulation

International News

1. Playing down impeachment, US Democratic leader seeks to roll back Trump tariffs and end the war

2. US media projections: Democrats flip five seats in a row and close in on a Senate majority, with an upset win in Kansas

3. Ukrainian President Zelensky: I convened a coordination meeting to discuss how to deal with the aftermath of Russian attacks and restore power supply

4. Indian officials: US midterm results are expected to ease US-India trade tensions

5. Higher palm oil output drags prices down; inventories may stay elevated

6. Nomura: US midterm results may ease trade and energy pressure on Japan

7. GACC Minister Sun Meijun meets Canadian Minister of Agriculture and Agri-Food MacDonald

8. International crude oil plunges 10% as markets step up bets on de-escalation with Iran

Domestic News

1. Ministry of Commerce: Recent China-Canada economic and trade consultations have made positive progress, including further extension of relevant exemption measures under the preliminary joint arrangement

On November 3, Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao and Canadian Minister of International Trade Sidhu co-chaired the 29th China-Canada Joint Economic and Trade Committee meeting (the first ministerial-level meeting) in Beijing. The two sides held candid and in-depth exchanges on China-Canada economic and trade relations, cooperation in traditional and emerging fields, and each other's economic and trade concerns. Li Chenggang, International Trade Representative of the People's Republic of China (at full ministerial level) and Vice Minister of Commerce, attended. Wang Wentao said that under the strategic guidance of the leaders of the two countries, recent China-Canada economic and trade consultations have made positive progress, including further extension of the relevant exemption measures under the preliminary joint arrangement. China is willing to continue to work with Canada to give full play to the Joint Economic and Trade Committee as the main channel for resolving economic and trade differences and promoting economic and trade cooperation, and to keep shortening the list of problems while lengthening the list of cooperation. At the same time, the two sides will continue to implement the China-Canada economic and trade cooperation roadmap, consolidate cooperation in traditional fields such as oil and gas energy, agricultural and aquatic products and consumer goods, and further expand cooperation in emerging fields such as new materials, advanced manufacturing, clean energy and smart agriculture, so as to provide strong support for the development of China-Canada economic and trade relations.

2. The People's Bank of China steps up implementation of the relending policy for share buybacks and increased holdings

To maintain the stable operation of the capital market, the People's Bank of China is stepping up implementation of the relending policy for share buybacks and increased holdings. From November 4, 2026, the interest rate on relending for share buybacks and increased holdings will be lowered by 0.25 percentage points to 1%. The relending for share buybacks and increased holdings supports 21 national banks and 5 systemically important city commercial banks, with a support ratio of 100% and a term of one year, which may be extended according to the banks' needs. Banks may add an appropriate margin on top of the relending rate, reasonably determine the term and rate of share buyback and increased-holding loans, accelerate loan disbursement, and strengthen the market value management capabilities of listed companies and major shareholders. Sufficient relending quotas will be provided to banks. Sufficient relending quotas will be provided to banks. Following the symposium on relending for share buybacks and increased holdings on November 2, banks have submitted applications to the People's Bank of China for relending quotas of more than 200 billion yuan. Going forward, the People's Bank of China will continue to fully meet banks' relending needs and support banks in actively matching the financing needs of listed companies and major shareholders.

3. Nearly 100 cooperation projects: China-Africa renewable energy cooperation continues to open up new tracks

Today (November 4), the Report on China-Africa Renewable Energy Cooperation 2026 was released in Hunan. The report shows that China and Africa have nearly 100 renewable energy cooperation projects with an installed capacity of 17 GW, benefiting dozens of African countries. The report shows that from 2023 to 2026, there were nearly 100 China-Africa renewable energy cooperation projects with an installed capacity of 17 GW, covering hydropower, wind power, photovoltaics and other fields. Among them, solar power projects were the most numerous, at 42 projects and 7.4 GW; hydropower projects numbered 16, at 6.8 GW; and wind power projects numbered 7, at 2.2 GW.

4. Relevant departments will roll out targeted policy measures on the circulation of key commodities

On November 4, the National Development and Reform Commission held a press conference in its "Striving for the 15th Five-Year Plan" series to brief on work related to consolidating development support. Kou Rong, Deputy Director-General of the Department of Economic and Trade of the NDRC, said that the NDRC will work with relevant departments to further implement the tasks of effectively reducing logistics costs across society, focus on building the logistics network, coordinate "major arteries" and "micro-circulation", "hard infrastructure" and "soft connectivity", and "domestic circulation" and "external connectivity", solidly advance the construction and interconnection of logistics hubs, enhance the carrying capacity of logistics corridors, shore up shortcomings in urban and rural logistics facilities, build a dense international logistics facility network, and systematically reduce logistics costs across society. In addition, relevant departments will also issue targeted policy measures specifically for the circulation of some key commodities. Taking fresh agricultural products as an example, work will further strengthen the market system and inspection capacity at production origins, accelerate efforts to shore up shortcomings in on-farm pre-cooling and origin cold-chain collection and distribution centers, build a number of key agricultural wholesale markets, strive to reduce circulation losses of fresh agricultural products, and accelerate the modernization and upgrading of fresh agricultural product circulation.

5. NDRC: Further removal of the "invisible fences" hindering the development of the modern circulation system

The National Development and Reform Commission held a press conference in its "Striving for the 15th Five-Year Plan" series to brief on work related to consolidating development support. Kou Rong, Deputy Director-General of the Department of Economic and Trade of the NDRC, said that the modern circulation system can link production and consumption across a wider range and plays a fundamental, leading and strategic role in the national economy. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, the modernization level of the circulation of key commodities will be further improved, efforts will focus on perfecting the production, transport, promotion and sales system for bulk commodities, and the storage, transport and transshipment capacity for bulk commodities will be enhanced. For example, direct bulk cargo trains will be developed and expanded and rail-water intermodal transport will be accelerated so that commodity circulation can be further sped up. At the same time, integrated and connected circulation rules and standards will be improved, the formulation and revision of rules and standards in key areas such as commercial logistics, e-commerce and agricultural product circulation will be strengthened, the interconnection and rules alignment of facilities such as circulation logistics and market information trading platforms will be advanced, the "invisible fences" hindering circulation will be further removed, and support for the resources and factors needed for the development of the circulation industry will also be further strengthened.

6. Autumn grain acreage is expected to increase slightly this year; more than 90% has been harvested and a bumper harvest is a foregone conclusion

The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs announced on the 4th that autumn grain acreage is expected to increase slightly this year, that more than 90% has been harvested, and that a bumper harvest is a foregone conclusion. In recent years, China has stepped up a new round of action to boost grain production capacity by 100 billion jin, focusing on stabilizing acreage, raising per-unit yields and reducing losses to promote the steady development of grain production. This year's summer grain output was 301.49 billion jin (roughly 150.7 million tonnes), exceeding 300 billion jin for the first time and setting a record high. Early rice output was 56.58 billion jin, remaining above 56 billion jin for six consecutive years. Full-year grain output is expected to stay above 1.4 trillion jin for the third consecutive year.

7. NDRC: A number of key agricultural wholesale markets will be built

At the press conference in the NDRC's "Striving for the 15th Five-Year Plan" series held today, Kou Rong, Deputy Director-General of the Department of Economic and Trade, said that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, relevant departments will further strengthen the market system and inspection capacity at the production origins of fresh agricultural products, accelerate efforts to shore up shortcomings in on-farm pre-cooling and origin cold-chain collection and distribution centers, build a number of key agricultural wholesale markets, and strive to reduce circulation losses of fresh agricultural products.

8. State Administration for Market Regulation issues the Provisions on Discretion in Administrative Penalties for Market Regulation

The State Administration for Market Regulation has issued the Provisions on Discretion in Administrative Penalties for Market Regulation, setting out systematic rules in the form of a departmental regulation for standardizing discretion in administrative penalties for market regulation. Building on the existing Guiding Opinions on Standardizing Discretion in Administrative Penalties for Market Regulation, the Provisions elevate the discretion rules from a normative document to a departmental regulation, enhancing the rigidity and authority of the system. At the same time, the Provisions clarify the entities that formulate discretion benchmarks, the formulation procedures, the main content and the requirements for adjustment and application, further improving the scientific basis and precision of the benchmarks. The Provisions divide discretion in administrative penalties into five tiers — no penalty, mitigated penalty, lighter penalty, ordinary penalty and heavier penalty — and set out specific provisions on the circumstances applicable to each tier.

International News

1. Playing down impeachment, US Democratic leader seeks to roll back Trump tariffs and end the war

US House Minority Leader Jeffries said on Wednesday of the Democrats' performance in the midterm elections: "This is not just a blue wave, it is a tsunami sweeping across America." The advantage the Democrats have won will give Jeffries, who is set to succeed Johnson as Speaker of the House, ample buffer to advance his party's legislative priorities next year, including expanding Obamacare subsidies, reversing Republican cuts to Medicaid and Trump's tariffs, and ending the war with Iran. Jeffries said the reckless, costly and avoidable war must be ended, as it has sent gasoline prices soaring, and that Trump's tariffs must be stopped, as they add thousands of dollars a year to the cost of living for ordinary Americans. US Senate Democratic leader Schumer has also said he will seek to limit the president's power to start wars and will work with Republicans on the matter. Democratic leaders have pledged to actively investigate allegations of corruption within the government, including an in-depth review of policies that benefited Trump and his family. But Jeffries played down the idea of impeaching the president, saying: "Not a single member of the House Democratic Caucus has talked to me about impeachment." "We have been focused on affordability and accountability."

2. US media projections: Democrats flip five seats in a row and close in on a Senate majority, with an upset win in Kansas

Election forecasting firm Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) projects that Democrat Adam Hamilton has successfully flipped a US Senate seat in Kansas. Capitalizing on voters' dissatisfaction with US President Donald Trump's tariff policy and public anger over fuel prices pushed up by the war with Iran, he became the first Democrat elected to the US Senate from this Great Plains state since 1932. According to preliminary vote counts, with 84% of ballots counted, Hamilton led Republican Senator Roger Marshall by 53% to 44%. DDHQ has declared Hamilton the winner, but other television networks have not yet projected a winner. According to projections by DDHQ and several television networks, Democrats have so far flipped five Senate seats, in North Carolina, Ohio, Texas, Kansas and South Carolina. Democrats originally needed a net gain of only four seats to control the Senate, provided the party did not lose any seats it currently holds in other states.

3. Ukrainian President Zelensky: I convened a coordination meeting to discuss how to deal with the aftermath of Russian attacks and restore power supply

Russian attacks occur almost every day, and repairs to energy infrastructure are likewise carried out around the clock.

4. Indian officials: US midterm results are expected to ease US-India trade tensions

Indian officials take a cautious view of the US midterm results, believing that while the outcome has eased some of the pressure from trade tensions, it also adds new uncertainty to the already fragile US-India relationship. On Tuesday, Democrats won sweeping victories in both chambers of the US Congress, sending a strong signal of opposition to Trump's policies. Trump's trade tariff policy and the war with Iran have hit countries such as India particularly hard. The United States is India's largest export market, and India is also a major importer of Middle East oil. Officials in New Delhi said the election results mean Congress will strengthen oversight of Trump's policies and limit the president's power to unilaterally impose reciprocal tariffs. They regard this as important progress and a positive factor for countries such as India. The officials also said that a Trump weakened by electoral defeat will give India some breathing room in trade agreement negotiations and reduce pressure on New Delhi to accept terms it considers unfavorable.

5. Higher palm oil output drags prices down; inventories may stay elevated

Malaysian palm oil prices fell during Asian trading hours. AmInvestment Bank said in a report that higher crude palm oil output is weighing on prices. The institution added that export growth is not yet sufficient to digest inventories, and inventory levels may stay high at least until the first quarter, when dry weather caused by El Niño may curb output. AmInvestment Bank expects resistance for crude palm oil futures at 4,604 ringgit per tonne and support at 4,460 ringgit per tonne. The January-delivery palm oil futures contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange fell 84 ringgit to 4,467 ringgit per tonne.

6. Nomura: US midterm results may ease trade and energy pressure on Japan

With the US Democratic Party taking control of both chambers of Congress, Japan may see easing in trade and energy prices. Nobuyasu Kiuchi, an economist at the Nomura Research Institute, said: "The momentum behind the Trump administration's policy agenda may be contained. Therefore, further tariff increases or hardline policies toward Iran are expected to face constraints." He noted that this will help avoid further deterioration in Japan's terms of trade with the United States and ease upward pressure on oil prices. However, Kiuchi also noted that President Trump may still shift his focus to foreign policy, since he faces far fewer constraints in the diplomatic field than in domestic affairs.

7. GACC Minister Sun Meijun meets Canadian Minister of Agriculture and Agri-Food MacDonald

On November 3, Sun Meijun, Minister of the General Administration of Customs of China (GACC), met in Beijing with a delegation led by MacDonald, Canada's Minister of Agriculture and Agri-Food. The two sides exchanged views on implementing the strategic consensus of the leaders of the two countries, deepening institutional cooperation on customs inspection and quarantine, promoting the safe and convenient trade of agri-food products, and conducting networked verification of electronic certificates, and signed a cooperation document. Vice Minister Zhang Baofeng and Kochar, President of the Canadian Food Inspection Agency, attended the meeting.

8. International crude oil plunges 10% as markets step up bets on de-escalation with Iran

After the US midterm elections, international oil prices fell sharply on Wednesday, with Brent crude dropping as much as 10% at one point. US Vice President Vance publicly attributed the Republican election defeat to the war with Iran, further strengthening market expectations that the Trump administration will seek a diplomatic path and avoid an escalation of the conflict. Democratic Senate leader Schumer also pledged to push for an end to the war with Iran. Ben Cahill, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, believes the drop in oil prices mainly reflects the US election results and market expectations that Trump will shift toward easing tensions with Iran, with Vance's remarks further reinforcing that sentiment. Raymond James analyst Pavel Molchanov also saw Vance's remarks as an important catalyst for the price decline. Seb Barker, a strategist at hedge fund Marshall Wace, believes the market is betting that Congress and members of the Trump administration may constrain his decisions on the war with Iran. However, analysts noted that it is not yet clear whether Vance's remarks signal a shift toward a more moderate stance on Iran. A sustained decline in oil prices would still require a lasting diplomatic de-escalation arrangement between the United States and Iran.

International Shipping News

Baltic Freight Indices

Container Shipping — Europe Route

No Fresh Driver Yet, Board Oscillates and Waits

The main December contract on the container shipping Europe route was mainly rangebound in a narrow band. Recently, news of US-Iran talks has continued to emerge on the geopolitical front and the sentiment premium has eased somewhat, but after the US midterm elections the market still worries about a resumption of fighting, and the strait blockade continues. In practical terms, the navigation risk premium on the two major straits still exists, and the support that various surcharges provide to freight rates will be hard to fade in the short term. In addition, after Maersk yesterday announced that its week-47 opening rate would be rolled over flat at USD 3,000, the market reaction had largely been priced in; although this disproved the earlier rate-increase expectations of the carriers, prices were not pushed down further on excessive pessimism either, and the board temporarily lacks a new driver and is mainly oscillating in wait. Looking ahead, given that carriers usually sign long-term contracts from December and that cargo volumes generally improve marginally in late November, December increases are usually partly realized, so the market still has expectation support for rate increases in far months. Overall, the market trades around carriers' actual quotations, with many game-playing factors at work; watch subsequent geopolitics, the resumption of voyages and carrier pricing developments.

International Shipping Developments

1. Congestion at three UAE ports continues to worsen

Kuehne+Nagel's port update in early November shows that congestion has worsened at the UAE ports of Khor Fakkan, Fujairah and Sharjah, with vessel waiting times measured in weeks and conditions likely to deteriorate further in the coming weeks. Some carriers have cut slot quotas at the three ports, but there has not yet been any large-scale omission of port calls or switch to alternative ports.

2. Wan Hai launches a new China-India service

Wan Hai Lines will launch the CI8 China-India service at the end of November, connecting Haiphong in Vietnam, South China ports and India's west coast. The service will deploy vessels of 2,800 to 3,000 TEU with a round-trip cycle of 35 days, calling at Qinzhou, Nansha, Shekou, Port Klang North, Mundra and Nhava Sheva.

3. China's shipbuilding share exceeds 60%

The latest BIMCO report shows that as of September 1 the global orderbook stood at 203.2 million CGT, up 13% year on year, below the May peak but still above the 2008 record. China accounts for 64% of the orderbook and has won 74% of global newbuilding orders over the past year, including 81% of container ship orders.