November 4 Phosphate Daily: Weak and Steady Persists, Awaiting a Demand Shift

MAP Price Index:

According to FDD data estimates, on November 4 the domestic MAP 55% powder index was 3,661.25, flat versus the previous working day; the 55% granular index was 3,925.00, flat versus the previous working day; and the 58% powder index was 3,866.67, flat versus the previous working day.

MAP Market Analysis and Outlook:

Today the domestic MAP market was mainly weak and steady. On the enterprise side, most factories are still executing earlier orders, actual concluded business is thin, and the market remains in a wait-and-see mode. On the market side, supply has declined somewhat, but new orders are following up only modestly and the trading atmosphere is stalemated and quiet. On the demand side, autumn fertilization is basically winding down, market inventory is ample, low-end cargo is still appearing, and some downstream compound fertilizer enterprises continue to purchase only on rigid demand without rushing to place new orders; market sentiment is fairly cautious and demand remains rather weak. On the raw material side, domestic sulfur prices stabilized and repaired today, sulphuric acid prices held steady for the time being, the phosphate rock market was mainly stable, and continued declines in raw material prices have weakened cost support for enterprises. Overall, the MAP market currently remains in a pattern of marginally weakening cost support combined with feeble demand recovery; although export news has caused some disturbance, the market is expected to stay weak until incremental drivers emerge in reality. Going forward, close attention should be paid to raw material price trends, the rhythm of downstream reserve demand, and how export policy and geopolitical developments transmit to the cost side.

Specifically, regional market prices are as follows:

MAP Market Prices (yuan/t)

DAP Price Index:

According to FDD data estimates, on November 3 the domestic mainstream DAP 64% granular index was 4,733.33, down 36.67 versus the previous working day; the 60% brown index was 4,150.00, flat versus the previous working day; and the 57% content index was 3,875.00, flat versus the previous working day.

DAP Market Analysis and Outlook:

Today the domestic DAP market continued to run weak and steady. On the enterprise side, some enterprises are mainly focused on shipping previously pending orders, prices temporarily lack a driver, and actual deals remain on a negotiated basis. On the market side, although exports have disturbed market sentiment, overall pessimism has yet to fully ease. On the demand side, autumn fertilization is essentially in its closing stage, low prices are frequent, the trading atmosphere is stalemated and quiet, downstream purchasing is concentrated in small, rigid-demand orders, some traders are under pressure, and overall quotations are mainly weak and steady. On the raw material side, the domestic sulfur market stabilized temporarily today, sulphuric acid prices were steady to slightly adjusted, and the phosphate rock market was mainly stable; overall, raw material prices have weakened their support for enterprises. Overall, the DAP market is expected to continue its weak and steady posture in the short term; going forward, close attention should be paid to changes in raw material prices, downstream demand follow-through, and later adjustments to export policy.

Specifically, regional market prices are as follows:

DAP Market Prices (yuan/t)

Sulfur Market Prices:

According to FDD data estimates, on November 4 the domestic sulfur price for granular cargo at Zhenjiang Port was 4,750 yuan/t, flat versus the previous working day; granular cargo at Dafeng Port was 4,730 yuan/t, flat versus the previous working day; lump and powder cargo at Zhenjiang Port was 4,700 yuan/t, flat versus the previous working day; lump and powder cargo at Dafeng Port was 4,680 yuan/t, flat versus the previous working day; East China solid sulfur was 5,300 yuan/t, down 300 yuan/t versus the previous working day; and East China liquid sulfur was 5,225 yuan/t, down 50 yuan/t versus the previous working day.

Sulfur Market Analysis and Outlook:

Today the domestic sulfur market was mainly rangebound in a narrow band. At the ports, the spot market for granular sulfur at Yangtze River ports held steady: after prices moved relatively lower, rigid-demand buying entered and buying enthusiasm improved somewhat, but sustainability and strength still need to be weighed; without incremental demand or outside information to lift it, most participants are standing aside and waiting, holders hold differing views and are watching how buying follows through, with fairly limited confidence in raising offers. In the Shandong liquid sulfur market, concluded prices fluctuated in a narrow range: after prices moved lower earlier, downstream and terminal demand purchasing enthusiasm picked up, the trading atmosphere improved markedly, and auction transactions moved up by a fairly wide margin; but as prices turned higher again, downstream willingness to keep chasing gains weakened noticeably, and without bullish factors non-rigid demand is still hard to release in a concentrated way, while auction business has turned quieter after low-priced cargo flowed out. Overall, a cautious mood persists in the market, and after rigid demand was appropriately released the market is temporarily watching for sustainability. In the short term, the market still cannot form an overly optimistic expectation on the scale and sustainability of demand. The market is mostly watching whether the recovery in downstream and terminal demand, as prices keep going lower, can lift buying sentiment and bring about a further warming.

Specifically, regional market prices are as follows:

Sulfur Regional Market Quotations (yuan/t)

Phosphate Fertilizer Market News and Updates:

Nov 4: The Anhui MAP market quoted 55% powder delivered at around 3,700-3,800 yuan/t, with quotations steady.

Nov 4: The Northeast MAP market quoted 55% powder delivered at around 3,800-3,850 yuan/t, with quotations steady.

Nov 4: The Henan MAP market quoted 55% powder delivered at around 3,650-3,700 yuan/t, with quotations steady.

Nov 4: The Hubei MAP market quoted mainstream 55% powder ex-works at around 3,550-3,650 yuan/t, with quotations steady.

Nov 4: The Jiangsu MAP market quoted 55% powder delivered at around 3,650-3,700 yuan/t, with quotations steady.

Nov 4: The Shandong MAP market quoted 55% powder delivered at around 3,650-3,700 yuan/t, with quotations steady.

Nov 4: The Sichuan MAP market quoted 55% powder delivered at around 3,550-3,650 yuan/t, with quotations steady.

Nov 4: The Yunnan MAP market quoted 55% powder ex-works at around 3,400-3,500 yuan/t, with quotations steady.

Nov 4: Shaanxi quoted DAP 60% ex-works for self-pickup at 4,100-4,150 yuan/t, with quotations steady.

Nov 4: The Northeast region quoted DAP 64% ex-works for self-pickup at 4,900-5,000 yuan/t, with quotations lower.

Nov 4: Hebei quoted DAP 57% for self-pickup at 3,800-4,000 yuan/t, steady.

Nov 4: The Hubei region quoted DAP 64% ex-works for self-pickup at 4,700-4,850 yuan/t, with quotations steady.

Nov 4: The Shandong region quoted DAP 64% ex-warehouse for self-pickup at 4,550-4,900 yuan/t, with quotations steady; 57% for self-pickup at the station was quoted at 3,800-3,900 yuan/t, with quotations steady.