Daily Macro Morning Briefing 2026-11-06

Global Key Indices — Latest Readings

Domestic Macroeconomic Indices

2026 Macroeconomic Indices

Contents

Domestic News

1. Ministry of Commerce: Will work with Oman to advance high-quality bilateral economic and trade cooperation and add new substance to the China-Oman strategic partnership

2. Price Cost and Certification Center conducts research on energy storage and power markets in Guangdong Province

3. CSRC and Oman's Financial Services Authority sign the Memorandum of Understanding on Regulatory Cooperation in Securities and Futures

4. Ministry of Finance claws back and recovers the central government advance funds for the 2024 automobile trade-in subsidy

5. MARA and CMA jointly issue a farmland waterlogging risk warning

6. PBOC Deputy Governor Zou Lan attends the Fifth Global Financial Leaders' Investment Summit

7. Ding Xuexiang attends the opening ceremony of the 9th China International Import Expo and meets foreign dignitaries

8. Head of the National Energy Administration meets Angola's Minister of Energy and Water

International News

1. From the US-Iran war to tariffs, can a Democratic-controlled Congress open a "low-inflation path"? | Daily Market Watch 11.05

2. Analysis: Oil prices push UK inflation to 3.5%, central bank expected to raise rates to guard against second-round effects

3. Russia's October fuel subsidy rises to 415 billion roubles, a more than four-year high

4. Fox News reports: Vance plans to build a "new right" coalition

5. Ministry of Commerce responds to the EU's cumulative levies on low-value imported goods

6. Peskov: Russia's diesel exports to the US will be delivered as agreed

7. Bank of England raises rates for the first time in three years, warns of further tightening if the Iran war continues

8. India plans to mandate energy storage for power retailers

Domestic News

1. Ministry of Commerce: Will work with Oman to advance high-quality bilateral economic and trade cooperation and add new substance to the China-Oman strategic partnership

The Ministry of Commerce held a regular press conference today. Ministry spokesperson Huang Ling said that China is Oman's largest trading partner and the destination of its crude oil exports, while Oman is China's fourth-largest trading partner among Arab countries. Two-way investment between the two countries has continued to expand and infrastructure cooperation has advanced steadily. The two sides have worked together to deepen cooperation in traditional fields such as oil, power and ports, and to actively expand emerging fields such as new energy and information and communications. On November 2, witnessed by the heads of state of the two countries, China's Ministry of Commerce and Oman's competent authorities separately signed two memoranda of understanding, on strengthening industrial and supply chain economic cooperation and on promoting investment cooperation in green development. The two sides will work to build a more resilient partnership on industrial and supply chains, focus on key areas such as green development and the digital economy, and help China-Oman economic and trade cooperation reach a higher level. Next, the Ministry of Commerce will work with Oman to jointly deliver on the important economic and trade consensus reached by the two heads of state, advance high-quality bilateral economic and trade cooperation, and add new substance to the China-Oman strategic partnership.

2. Price Cost and Certification Center conducts research on energy storage and power markets in Guangdong Province

From October 28 to 29, Cheng Gang, Deputy Director of the Price Cost and Certification Center, led a team to conduct research in Guangdong Province. The team visited China Southern Power Grid, the National New Energy Storage Innovation Center, the Guangdong Power Exchange Center and other entities, focusing on independent energy storage and power market development. Relevant staff from the Center's New Energy Price and Cost Division took part in the research.

3. CSRC and Oman's Financial Services Authority sign the Memorandum of Understanding on Regulatory Cooperation in Securities and Futures

On November 2, 2026, witnessed by the heads of state of China and Oman, Wu Qing, Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, and Badr, Oman's Minister of Foreign Affairs, signed in Beijing the Memorandum of Understanding between the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the Financial Services Authority of Oman on Regulatory Cooperation in Securities and Futures. The signing is of great significance for further strengthening regulatory exchanges and cooperation between the two sides in the securities and futures fields and for promoting the sound development of the two countries' capital markets, marking a new stage in securities regulatory cooperation between the two countries. To date, the CSRC has signed bilateral memoranda of understanding on regulatory cooperation with securities and futures regulators in 68 countries and regions and has established cross-border regulatory and enforcement cooperation mechanisms.

4. Ministry of Finance claws back and recovers the central government advance funds for the 2024 automobile trade-in subsidy

In accordance with the Notice of the Ministry of Finance on Issuing the Budget for the Central Government Advance Funds for the 2024 Automobile Trade-in Subsidy (Cai Jian [2024] No. 129), the Notice of the Ministry of Finance and the National Development and Reform Commission on the Settlement Results of the 2024 Funds for Consumer Goods Trade-in (Cai Jian [2026] No. 60), and your department's (bureau's) Form on the Situation of Applying to Recover the 2024 Consumer Goods Trade-in Funds, part of the central government financial interest subsidies and reward funds already advanced to your province (region, corps) in 2024 for automobile trade-ins are hereby recovered (see the attachment for details). Your province (region, corps) shall remit the funds to the central government finance, book them under the 2026 government revenue and expenditure classification item "2300602 Special Remittance Expenditure", and handle them through the 2026 year-end settlement between the central and local governments.

5. MARA and CMA jointly issue a farmland waterlogging risk warning

The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the China Meteorological Administration jointly issued a farmland waterlogging risk warning on November 5, 2026: from November 6 to 7, moderate to heavy rain is expected in southern Anhui, southern Hubei, central and northern Hunan, central and northern Jiangxi, eastern Guizhou and other areas, with localized rainstorms or severe rainstorms; the rainfall areas overlap with earlier precipitation, so the risk of farmland waterlogging is relatively high, with high risk in southeastern Hubei and northwestern Jiangxi. It is recommended to clear ditches and channels in advance and to drain water and dry out the soil promptly after the rain, so as to ensure autumn planting and normal crop growth.

6. PBOC Deputy Governor Zou Lan attends the Fifth Global Financial Leaders' Investment Summit

On November 3, 2026, the Fifth Global Financial Leaders' Investment Summit was held in Hong Kong. Zou Lan, Deputy Governor of the People's Bank of China, attended and spoke at the event. Zou Lan said that China's economic development shows a trend of moving toward the new and the better, and continues to activate growth momentum by expanding domestic demand. The People's Bank of China will follow the changing trends in China's financial structure, promote the gradual transformation and optimization of the monetary policy framework, and create a sound financial environment for high-quality economic development; it will continue to deepen the high-level opening up of the financial sector, support the development of Hong Kong as an international financial center, and consolidate Hong Kong's position as an offshore RMB business hub.

7. Ding Xuexiang attends the opening ceremony of the 9th China International Import Expo and meets foreign dignitaries

The 9th China International Import Expo and the Hongqiao International Economic Forum opened in Shanghai on the 5th. Ding Xuexiang, Member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice Premier of the State Council, attended and delivered a keynote speech. Ding Xuexiang noted that the world is undergoing accelerated changes unseen in a century, economic globalization is facing headwinds, global development imbalances are prominent, and the international economic and trade order has been severely impacted. It is normal for everyone to be concerned about trade imbalances; the key is how to achieve trade balance. He put forward four points. First, uphold shared markets, raise the level of openness and connectivity, better leverage each country's comparative advantages, and promote balance while jointly making the "cake" bigger. Second, deepen investment cooperation, optimize the cross-border layout of industries, create favorable conditions for business development, and promote balance while integrating into global industrial and supply chains. Third, strengthen innovation empowerment, improve the quality of supply, expand trade boundaries, and promote balance while driving transformation and upgrading. Fourth, enhance understanding and mutual trust, fully accommodate each other's legitimate concerns, resolve differences through consultation, and promote balance while breaking down barriers.

8. Head of the National Energy Administration meets Angola's Minister of Energy and Water

On November 3, Wang Hongzhi, Administrator of China's National Energy Administration, met in Beijing with Joao Borges, Angola's Minister of Energy and Water. The two sides exchanged views on cooperation in renewable energy, power and other fields. Wang Hongzhi said that China-Angola energy cooperation has a solid foundation and broad prospects. China values Angola's development needs and investment expectations in hydropower, photovoltaics, electrification and other fields, and is willing to strengthen policy alignment, technical exchange and experience sharing with Angola, encourage enterprises of both sides to carry out practical cooperation in key energy fields, and push bilateral energy cooperation to new results.

International News

1. From the US-Iran war to tariffs, can a Democratic-controlled Congress open a "low-inflation path"? | Daily Market Watch 11.05

After the US midterm elections, falling oil prices have prompted the market to reassess inflation and financing costs; the elections have not ended AI investment, and the real pressure still comes from the cost of capital and the efficiency of project delivery.

2. Analysis: Oil prices push UK inflation to 3.5%, central bank expected to raise rates to guard against second-round effects

Market analyst Jonathan Lending believes traders have almost fully priced in tonight's Bank of England rate hike, so the hike itself may not have much impact on sterling. The Bank of England's messaging on 2027 may matter more. UK inflation has reached 3.5%, above the 3% the Bank projected in July. Driven by the Iran war, fuel prices have risen nearly 30% in a year, the biggest factor pushing inflation up. The Bank said in September that inflation could be slightly above 4% in early 2027. A rate hike cannot lower oil prices. What the Bank wants to avoid is a second-round effect, in which workers demand higher wages and companies raise product prices, leaving inflation elevated even after the energy shock fades. The minutes of the Bank's September meeting showed "little evidence" of this so far. But research published by the Bank in July found that once inflation exceeds roughly 3% to 3.5%, the impact of higher oil prices on inflation is more than double the usual level. Tonight's hike may pass by a 7-2 vote, with Taylor and Dhingra the most likely to dissent, and a closer vote could signal insufficient support for further hikes.

3. Russia's October fuel subsidy rises to 415 billion roubles, a more than four-year high

The subsidy Russia provides to encourage oil producers to prioritize supplying road fuel to the domestic market has risen to its highest level in more than four years, further eroding the Kremlin's energy revenue. Data released by Russia's Finance Ministry on Thursday showed that the total subsidy reached 415 billion roubles (about USD 5.1 billion) last month, the highest since the record 450 billion roubles set in April 2022. The subsidy is intended to encourage Russian oil producers to supply fuel to domestic consumers even when exports are more economically attractive. Turmoil triggered by this year's Iran war has pushed up global crude and refined product prices, and the monthly subsidy received by Russian refiners has risen from billions of roubles in January to hundreds of billions now. Most of the subsidy goes to Russia's largest oil companies, including Rosneft and Tatneft, which own major refineries. The subsidy provides important financial support as these companies scramble to repair refining facilities damaged in Ukrainian drone attacks. Although Russia has banned exports of most diesel, gasoline and jet fuel, the government continues to maintain the subsidy policy.

4. Fox News reports: Vance plans to build a "new right" coalition

Fox News, citing sources, reported that US Vice President Vance is seeking to build a "new right coalition" with voters disappointed in Trump ahead of the 2028 election cycle. After the Republicans' crushing midterm defeat, Vance published a long post on Wednesday morning local time, taking positions different from Trump's on foreign policy and US-Israel relations. A source said the White House held a meeting on Wednesday morning aimed at keeping the administration's messaging consistent after the midterms. Vance previously posted: "The reason we lost is this war." "The President himself said so last night." Vance said in the post that a pollster listed four tasks that could bring voters back to the Republican Party: ending the war, focusing on the cost of living and inflation, putting America first, and changing our relationship with Israel. In September, Vance said he would not call the Iran conflict a "war". A government official described the four tasks as Vance's rallying cry for the "new right". The official said Vance's stance is not intended to break with Trump; rather, it aims to send a clear signal to Republicans who supported Trump but disagree with his foreign policy or feel betrayed, namely that "Vance is one of us."

5. Ministry of Commerce responds to the EU's cumulative levies on low-value imported goods

The EU has imposed a EUR 2 handling fee on low-value imported goods from November 1, after starting to levy a EUR 3 tariff in July. Ministry of Commerce spokesperson Huang Ling said at a regular press conference on the 5th that China is highly concerned about the EU's new rules. As a new business form and model of international trade, cross-border e-commerce offers diversified choices to companies and consumers worldwide. China hopes the EU will carefully assess the impact of the relevant policies and create favorable conditions for China-EU cooperation in e-commerce and other fields.

6. Peskov: Russia's diesel exports to the US will be delivered as agreed

On November 5, Russian presidential press secretary Peskov said at a regular news briefing that under the agreement reached between Russia and the United States, all Russian diesel shipped to the US will find buyers. He urged the outside world not to link the diversion of tankers to the US midterm election results and noted that the commercial details could not be disclosed. Earlier reports said two of three tankers carrying Russian diesel to the US had changed course after US Democrats and the authorities issued threats to the companies involved.

7. Bank of England raises rates for the first time in three years, warns of further tightening if the Iran war continues

The Bank of England voted unanimously to raise rates, though one member favored a 50-basis-point increase. Bailey said the hike does not signal a continuous tightening cycle, but further increases will be hard to avoid if the Iran conflict remains unresolved for a long time.

8. India plans to mandate energy storage for power retailers

India plans to require power distributors to buy a certain amount of energy storage capacity whenever they procure renewable energy, in order to reduce waste of clean power. Power Ministry Secretary Pankaj Agarwal said on Thursday that the policy details are still under discussion, including how much storage capacity distributors must procure, and that the government plans to finalize the rules by March next year. The mandate is intended to drive investment in battery storage so that surplus power can be stored and released when supply tightens. Solar output typically peaks during the day, while wind output fluctuates with the weather, so the grid is sometimes oversupplied and sometimes short of power. Without sufficient storage capacity, grid operators may be forced to curtail renewable generation.

International Shipping News

Baltic Freight Indices

Container Shipping — Europe Route

Geopolitical Sentiment Cools, Shipping Premium Declines

Recently, news of US-Iran talks has continued to emerge on the geopolitical front and, combined with the outcome of the US midterm elections, Trump has been hamstrung after losing both chambers while the Democrats have also signaled an end to the war, so the market's sentiment premium has eased substantially. However, the strait blockade continues and vessels are still being attacked; in practical terms, the navigation risks on the two major straits have not faded, and the support that various surcharges provide to freight rates will remain for some time. On the board this shows as support in nearby months, with the premium in far months falling more sharply. On fundamentals, after Maersk yesterday announced that its week-47 opening rate would be rolled over flat at USD 3,000, the market reaction had largely been priced in; although this disproved the earlier rate-increase expectations of the carriers, prices were not pushed down further on excessive pessimism either, and the board temporarily lacks a new driver and is mainly oscillating in wait. Looking ahead, given that carriers usually sign long-term contracts from December and that cargo volumes generally improve marginally in late November, December increases are usually partly realized, so the market still has expectation support for rate increases in far months. In addition, the sailing schedules show that December supply will be slightly lower than November, but with expectations of a return to normal voyages strengthening, December capacity could still increase later; all things considered, in the year-end contracting season, carriers are unlikely to actively add substantial capacity in December, so the December peak season is still expected to command a premium over spot. Overall, the market trades around carriers' actual quotations, with many game-playing factors at work, and will mainly oscillate and wait in the short term until new carrier guidance emerges.

International Shipping Developments

1. List of non-compliant vessels in the Persian Gulf expands

The Persian Gulf Straits Authority recently updated its list of non-compliant vessels, adding 114 vessels at one time to bring the total to 240, and including four container ships for the first time. The Authority also warned that vessels engaged in ship-to-ship lighterage or transshipment cooperation with listed vessels may also be added to the list.

2. CMA CGM and MSC raise Europe route rates

MSC and CMA CGM have successively announced that from November 15 they will raise rates from the Far East to Northern Europe, the Mediterranean, the Black Sea and North Africa. Compared with the previous round, rates to the eastern Mediterranean and the Black Sea are up USD 600, while for the western Mediterranean, 20-foot containers are up USD 400 and 40-foot containers up USD 500.

3. Trans-Pacific route becomes a golden trade

The latest Alphaliner analysis shows that the Shanghai-Los Angeles route earns USD 1.30 per nautical mile in spot freight revenue, five times that of the Cape of Good Hope to Northern Europe route. The Shanghai-New York route earns USD 0.96, with spot freight rates above USD 10,000 per container since late August.