Daily Macro Morning Briefing 2026-11-10

Global Key Indices — Latest Readings

Domestic Macroeconomic Indices

2026 Macroeconomic Indices

Contents

Domestic News

1. NBS: affected by changes in international market prices, domestic gasoline prices rose 4.2% in October

2. SHFE: adjusts position limits for fuel oil and petroleum asphalt futures contracts

3. Ministry of Commerce spokesperson answers questions on adjusting unreliable entity list measures

4. State Council Tariff Commission adjusts additional tariff measures on imports originating in the United States

5. Foreign Ministry: China's early ratification of the Agreement on Establishing the World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization reflects sincere intent and firm commitment

6. Analysts expect hog and pork prices to fluctuate slightly this week

7. Average pork price at national agricultural wholesale markets at 14.69 yuan/kg, down 2.4% from last Friday

8. China's 2026 cotton output down 5.3% year on year to 7.337 million tonnes

International News

1. Israeli media: Iran appears to have dropped its demand for Strait of Hormuz transit fees

2. Signs of easing at the Strait of Hormuz; Brent extends historic weekly decline

3. Inflation worries ease; gold rises more than 1% intraday

4. Ukrainian President Zelensky: spoke with Indian Prime Minister Modi and briefed him on the current diplomatic situation

5. Trump hints he will hold off on strikes against Iran; Gulf stock markets rise together

6. Foreign Ministry: China's position on US chip exports to China is consistent

7. Canada launches tax breaks for the energy sector at a five-year cost of CAD 36 billion

8. Japanese and Vietnamese leaders to meet Monday to deepen trade, technology and security ties

Domestic News

1. NBS: affected by changes in international market prices, domestic gasoline prices rose 4.2% in October

Dong Lijuan, chief statistician of the Urban Survey Division of the National Bureau of Statistics, interpreted the October 2026 CPI and PPI data. On a month-on-month basis, the national CPI shifted from a 0.2% rise in the previous month to flat. Industrial consumer goods prices rose 0.3%, with the increase narrowing by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, contributing about 0.10 percentage points to the month-on-month CPI rise. Within industrial consumer goods, affected by changes in international market prices, domestic gasoline prices rose 4.2%, with the gain narrowing by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month and contributing about 0.14 percentage points to the month-on-month CPI rise; gold jewelry prices fell 5.9%, with the decline widening by 3.8 percentage points, contributing about 0.03 percentage points to the month-on-month CPI decline. Services prices shifted from a 0.2% fall in the previous month to a 0.1% rise, contributing about 0.04 percentage points to the month-on-month CPI rise. Within services, increased travel during the National Day holiday drove hotel accommodation, air tickets and travel agency charges up 6.5%, 3.3% and 2.4% respectively, together contributing about 0.04 percentage points to the month-on-month CPI rise. Food prices shifted from a 0.4% rise in the previous month to a 1.0% fall, contributing about 0.17 percentage points to the month-on-month CPI decline.

2. SHFE: adjusts position limits for fuel oil and petroleum asphalt futures contracts

The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced that, following a review, effective from trading on November 11, 2026 (i.e. the night session of November 10), the position limits for non-futures-company members, overseas special non-brokerage participants and clients in fuel oil and petroleum asphalt futures contracts are adjusted as follows: the maximum number of intraday opening trades for fuel oil futures contracts FU2612 and FU2701 is 800 lots; the maximum number of intraday opening trades for petroleum asphalt futures contracts BU2611, BU2612 and BU2701 is 800 lots.

3. Ministry of Commerce spokesperson answers questions on adjusting unreliable entity list measures

Reports say that, in line with the consensus reached in the eighth round of China-US economic and trade consultations, China will adjust a batch of non-tariff measures targeting the United States. What are the considerations regarding the unreliable entity list? A Ministry of Commerce spokesperson said that, pursuant to the Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law of the People's Republic of China, the Provisions on the Unreliable Entity List and related rules, the working mechanism for the unreliable entity list issued an announcement on April 4, 2025 placing 11 US entities on the unreliable entity list and taking corresponding measures. To implement the consensus of the eighth round of China-US economic and trade consultations, China has decided that, from November 10, 2026, it will continue to suspend for a further two months the relevant measures in the April 4, 2025 announcement (Announcement No. 7 [2025] of the working mechanism for the unreliable entity list). Under the relevant provisions of the Provisions on the Unreliable Entity List, domestic enterprises may apply to transact with the above entities, and the working mechanism will review applications in accordance with the law and approve those that meet the conditions.

4. State Council Tariff Commission adjusts additional tariff measures on imports originating in the United States

To implement the outcomes and consensus reached at the Washington meeting between the heads of state of China and the United States, and in accordance with the Tariff Law of the People's Republic of China, the Customs Law of the People's Republic of China, the Foreign Trade Law of the People's Republic of China and other laws and regulations as well as the basic principles of international law, with the approval of the State Council, from 13:01 on November 10, 2026, China will adjust the additional tariff measures set out in the Announcement of the State Council Tariff Commission on Additional Tariffs on Imports Originating in the United States (Tariff Commission Announcement No. 4 of 2025): the 24% additional tariff rate on the United States will remain suspended for a further two months, while the 10% additional tariff rate on the United States will be retained.

5. Foreign Ministry: China's early ratification of the Agreement on Establishing the World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization reflects sincere intent and firm commitment

On November 9, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun chaired a regular press conference. Guo said that, as the initiating country and host of the World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization, China was the first to ratify the Agreement on Establishing the World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization, reflecting its sincere intent and firm commitment to advancing the organization's establishment process. Guo said China will continue to uphold the principles of extensive consultation, joint contribution and shared benefits, actively promote the organization's substantive operation, and focus on practical cooperation and capacity building for countries of the Global South, so that all countries can share the opportunities and dividends brought by artificial intelligence. China welcomes and looks forward to more countries joining the organization, working together to promote AI for good and inclusive development and to build a just and equitable global AI governance system.

6. Analysts expect hog and pork prices to fluctuate slightly this week

According to monitoring by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of 500 county-level markets and collection points, last week (the first week of November, November 2-8, the same below), the national live hog price was 10.11 yuan/kg, down 2.9% month on month; the pork price at county markets was 20.11 yuan/kg, down 1.2% month on month. According to monitoring of 200 wholesale markets by the ministry, the average national wholesale pork price last week was 15.01 yuan/kg, down 3.1% month on month and 16.7% lower year on year. Analysts believe that pork consumption had not yet strengthened seasonally last week, downstream movement of dressed carcass meat was sluggish, market supply was ample, and hog and pork prices declined somewhat. Looking ahead, hog and pork prices are expected to fluctuate slightly this week.

7. Average pork price at national agricultural wholesale markets at 14.69 yuan/kg, down 2.4% from last Friday

According to monitoring by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, on November 9 the "Agricultural Products Wholesale Price 200 Index" stood at 110.99, down 0.11 points from last Friday, and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index stood at 110.41, down 0.11 points from last Friday. As of 14:00 today, the average pork price at national agricultural wholesale markets was 14.69 yuan/kg, down 2.4% from last Friday; beef was 73.65 yuan/kg, flat with last Friday; mutton was 67.48 yuan/kg, flat with last Friday; eggs were 9.61 yuan/kg, up 1.3% from last Friday; and dressed chicken was 17.20 yuan/kg, up 1.1% from last Friday.

8. China's 2026 cotton output down 5.3% year on year to 7.337 million tonnes

The National Cotton Market Monitoring System conducted a 2026 cotton output survey nationwide from late October to early November, with samples covering 14 provinces (autonomous regions), 46 cotton-growing counties (cities, regimental farms) and 1,730 designated cotton information contact households. The results show that China's average cotton yield in 2026 was 158.4 kg/mu, down 2.3% year on year; based on the system's surveyed actual sown area of 46.32 million mu, national output is estimated at 7.337 million tonnes, down 5.3% year on year. Xinjiang output was 6.966 million tonnes, down 5.7% year on year. Output in the inland regions rose somewhat year on year, with the Yellow River basin at 187,000 tonnes, up 2.5% year on year, and the Yangtze River basin at 115,000 tonnes, up 0.3% year on year.

International News

1. Israeli media: Iran appears to have dropped its demand for Strait of Hormuz transit fees

According to Israel Hayom, Trump is scheduled to meet Qatari Prime Minister Al Thani in Washington on Monday, suggesting Qatar is stepping up mediation to push the United States and Iran toward a new interim agreement. Two diplomatic sources familiar with the talks revealed that Al Thani brought with him a proposal, already approved by Iran, for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Under the plan, the United States would lift its naval and economic blockades of Iran in exchange for Iran ceasing attacks on vessels and tankers belonging to Gulf states. Under the proposed agreement, USD 8 billion of Iranian funds held in Qatar would be unfrozen. Iran appears to have dropped its demand to control the Strait of Hormuz and charge transit fees to passing vessels. Tehran, however, remains unwilling to discuss its nuclear program or even to signal a willingness to open negotiations on it.

2. Signs of easing at the Strait of Hormuz; Brent extends historic weekly decline

As diplomatic efforts to end the Middle East war continue, an unconfirmed report that Iran had made concessions on the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices lower. The international benchmark Brent crude fell more than 3% to around USD 95 a barrel, extending its largest weekly decline since April 2020. Earlier, US President Trump said over the weekend that it was "highly unlikely" he would order a large-scale strike on Iran, though he told CNN that this depended on whether Iran signed a "very strong agreement", after which oil prices pulled back somewhat. Israeli outlet Israel Hayom then published an unconfirmed report that Iran appeared to have abandoned its demand to control the Strait of Hormuz and charge transit fees to passing vessels, sending oil prices to a fresh intraday low. The sweeping Democratic victory in the US midterm elections eased market fears of a severe escalation of the conflict, and crude prices have retreated sharply from the six-month high touched at the end of October. It remains unclear, however, whether these conciliatory statements can translate into substantive progress in negotiations. Iran's state broadcaster IRIB reported that the United States again struck Iran's Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz overnight, while US Secretary of State Rubio played down the prospects of a breakthrough in talks.

3. Inflation worries ease; gold rises more than 1% intraday

On Monday, as inflation worries eased, gold rose more than 1% while investors awaited key US inflation data and fresh signals from the Federal Reserve on its policy outlook. With US President Trump saying it was highly unlikely he would order further strikes on Iran and negotiations to end the conflict still under way, concerns about potential supply disruptions eased, pushing oil prices lower. Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, said Trump's softer stance toward Iran had helped restrain oil prices; combined with a modest pullback in the dollar, this eased some of the inflation concerns that had been weighing on gold.

4. Ukrainian President Zelensky: spoke with Indian Prime Minister Modi and briefed him on the current diplomatic situation

Food security could be one area of cooperation. We discussed how Russia is obstructing Black Sea grain exports. India is willing to act as a mediator to help establish a grain transport corridor, and we look forward to those efforts continuing.

5. Trump hints he will hold off on strikes against Iran; Gulf stock markets rise together

Trump hinted that, as negotiations to end the eight-month US-Iran conflict continue, the United States is unlikely to launch a new round of strikes on Iran, lifting Gulf stock markets in early Monday trading. He made the remarks even though both the United States and Iran reported attacks on vessels in and near the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway through which nearly one-fifth of global crude shipments passed before the war. Trump had previously hinted at a possible resumption of strikes after last week's midterm elections, but the United States has so far taken no large-scale military action. Tehran has warned that if the United States strikes again, Iran will retaliate against US and Israeli targets. Senior UAE official Anwar Gargash warned on Monday that the Middle East could face prolonged instability as Washington and Tehran appear unable to reach a comprehensive political agreement. Speaking at a geopolitical conference in the UAE capital Abu Dhabi, Gargash said: "We should prepare for a long period of uncertainty, during which we can neither count on a decisive resolution of the conflict nor assume that the regional order will remain stable."

6. Foreign Ministry: China's position on US chip exports to China is consistent

On November 9, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun chaired a regular press conference. An AFP reporter asked about a Reuters report that 600,000 advanced US Nvidia chips are in Hong Kong, China and are about to be shipped to the Chinese mainland, which is approving their import; what was the Foreign Ministry's comment? Guo said China's position on US chip exports to China is consistent, and recommended consulting the competent Chinese authorities for specifics.

7. Canada launches tax breaks for the energy sector at a five-year cost of CAD 36 billion

Surging global oil prices have left Canadian crude producers flush with cash, and the Carney government has handed them another gift: a tax deduction expected to lower their burden, with some firms set to benefit for years to come. Third-quarter earnings revealed for the first time what Canadian oil and gas companies expect to gain from a major corporate tax reform. Carney announced in September that companies would be able to immediately deduct a wide range of capital expenditure rather than writing it off gradually over many years. Although the large oil sands producers did not quantify how much cash the reform would add, they said it would ultimately have a positive effect once passed. The capital-investment measure, dubbed the "productivity super-deduction", was detailed in the federal budget released last week. It is one of a series of policy adjustments by the Canadian government aimed at promoting growth in the energy sector and is expected to cost the government CAD 36 billion (USD 25.5 billion) over the next five years. Not all companies, however, are positive about Carney's proposal. Murray Mullen, chairman of logistics and oilfield services firm Mullen Group Ltd., said: "I think it's a bit of a sleight of hand. It does help reduce cash taxes and improve cash flow now, but after the first year it makes you pay for it."

8. Japanese and Vietnamese leaders to meet Monday to deepen trade, technology and security ties

The leaders of Japan and Vietnam are due to meet in Tokyo on Monday, a visit aimed at strengthening trade, technology and security relations. Against a backdrop of regional geopolitical and trade tensions, economic security will be a priority. Vietnamese leader To Lam's visit to Japan is the first by a Vietnamese general secretary in 11 years. To Lam will address the Japanese Diet and meet Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae later on Monday. The visit builds on the rapid strengthening of bilateral ties following Takaichi's visit to Hanoi in May. Energy security and supply chain resilience will feature prominently on the agenda, as geopolitical tensions and global supply disruptions have exposed Vietnam's vulnerability to external shocks. Japan has pledged support for crude oil supplies to the Nghi Son refinery and wants to deepen cooperation on rare earths and other critical minerals.

International Shipping News

Baltic Freight Indices

Container Shipping — Europe Route

A Pricing Anchor Has Emerged on the Board; Watch Carriers' New Opening Rates

The main Europe route container shipping contract opened lower, fell, and then recovered in fluctuating trade. The early decline was likely a continuation of weak sentiment — the bearish news of disproven rate-increase announcements and the resumption of sailings amid cooling geopolitics was vented in a concentrated way at the open; the subsequent move back into positive territory showed that below 2,300 points, shorts' willingness to keep selling had clearly faded. With the earlier bearish news priced in to some extent, the board found a temporary equilibrium near the valuation anchor implied by week-47 FAK rates. On fundamentals, the week-47 FAK midpoint sits at roughly USD 2,960-3,070/FEU, equivalent to an index reading of about 2,070-2,150 points; EC2611 closed today at 2,160 points, right near the upper edge of that implied range, indicating that the pricing of the nearby contract has essentially completed its switch from "rate-increase letter promises" to "actual concluded levels". The near-term pricing driver on the board remains carriers' opening rates; if Maersk's new opening this week again stays flat at USD 3,000, the board may gradually find the momentum to stabilize and repair. Moreover, given that carriers usually begin signing long-term contracts in December and that cargo volumes generally improve marginally in late November, December increases are usually partly realized, so the market still has expectation support for rate increases in far months. Overall, the market trades around carriers' actual quotations, with many game-playing factors at work, and will mainly oscillate and wait in the short term until new carrier rate guidance emerges.

International Shipping Developments

1. Freight rates may fall 30% in 2027

Xeneta released a report at its Munich summit forecasting that global container spot rates will fall 30% in 2027 and long-term contract rates will fall 5%. The pressure on rates stems from capacity growth outpacing cargo volumes: the fleet is expected to grow 6.8%, while demand will rise only 2.5% to 4%.

2. Le Havre terminal strike disrupts operations

French ports have been hit by successive strikes. According to a November 4 notice from the HAROPA port authority, container terminals and some port facilities at Le Havre were disrupted by a nationwide strike on November 5-6, and the tugboat sector also struck on November 6-7, further restricting pilotage and towage operations.

3. TS Lines returns to the Suez Canal

TS Lines will resume the Suez Canal routing of its PAX service in late November. The Far East-Mediterranean service will shift to a fortnightly frequency, with the number of vessels cut from six to five and capacity of roughly 5,500 to 6,900 TEU. Mediterranean port calls will be adjusted accordingly, with Koper ahead of Barcelona to connect with the Central European hinterland.