Fertilizer market is stable and small, and the process of winter storage is accelerated

Urea prices slow down After the continuous rise, China's domestic urea growth has slowed down slightly recently, and the market has gradually stabilized. At present, the overall supply of urea in China is insufficient. Zhou Hong, deputy general manager of Guizhou Agricultural Production Materials Co., Ltd., revealed that the current social inventory of urea is relatively low, and the supply of goods is mainly concentrated in the hands of large traders. To get the goods, the current wait-and-see atmosphere at the grassroots level is still heavier. She told reporters: "Because the purchase volume in the fourth quarter of 2021 is much lower than that of the same period in previous years, and the grassroots outlets are not much stocked, the pressure on large-scale traders has increased. If the summer tube fertilizer wins the bid, it can guarantee the demand for spring plowing. It will also appropriately reduce the pressure on large traders. However, no company in Guizhou has won the bid this time, which invisibly increases our pressure. Fortunately, the procurement progress of dealers this year is significantly slower than that of the same period in previous years, and the manufacturers have issued The speed of shipments is also slower than in previous years, giving us time to buffer. About March-April, the shipment process in Guizhou will speed up.”In terms of demand, some sheet metal factories have been suspended for holidays. Although compound fertilizer factories have maintained a relatively high operating rate, the increase in urea prices since New Year's Day has led to a blow to the enthusiasm of downstream manufacturers to purchase urea, and there is resistance to high-priced urea. It is understood that there is still a certain demand gap for compound fertilizer plants in Shandong, Henan, Hubei, and Northeast China. In addition, with the gradual approach of top-dressing winter wheat, the demand for urea will increase. In terms of price, the current mainstream ex-factory price of small and medium granules in Shandong is 2630-2650 yuan/ton, and the mainstream ex-factory price of small granules in Shaanxi is 2450-2580 yuan/ton.Regarding the late trend of urea, some people in the industry believe that according to the current market situation, there is still a possibility of a slight increase in the domestic urea market outlook, but the increase is limited. Because the current market supply pressure is still relatively large, and market demand is relatively limited. However, there is also another voice: "As some gas companies in the southwest have plans to resume production in the later stage, the daily output of urea will increase, and the market supply will also increase. The possibility of price reductions due to pre-orders.”The phosphate fertilizer market is running strong in January 2022, supported by the raw material market and demand, the domestic phosphate fertilizer prices have been continuously reported as price increases, and the inventory pressure of enterprises has decreased. At present, the advance orders received by enterprises are relatively sufficient, and the orders received in advance in the early stage of delivery are the main ones, or orders are suspended, and the pending orders of enterprises can be executed for 1-2 months.In terms of monoammonium phosphate, it maintained a stable operation. In terms of price, the delivery price of Shandong 55% powder is 2950-3020 yuan/ton, and the outbound price of Bayuquan 55 powder is 3000-3020 yuan/ton. It is understood that, according to past practice, downstream compound fertilizer enterprises will reserve a certain amount of raw materials before the Spring Festival. However, recently, many places have been affected by the epidemic and other factors, resulting in limited transportation, hard-to-find vehicles, and corresponding increases in freight rates. In addition, the price of monoammonium phosphate has been at a high level recently, which reduces the willingness to continue purchasing downstream.DAP maintains smooth operation. In terms of demand, after the previous stocking, the willingness to reserve downstream has gradually weakened recently. In terms of price, due to the high price of raw material sulfur and the relative increase of the cost of diammonium phosphate, the quotation of enterprises has increased by 30 to 50 yuan/ton. The ex-factory quotation of 64% diammonium diammonium in Hubei is 3550-3600 yuan/ton, the market quotation in Northeast China is relatively chaotic, the quotation of 64% diammonium diammonium in Guizhou is 3810 yuan/ton when delivered to Liaoning, and the export price of Hubei yellow 64% diammonium bayuquan is 3700 yuan/ton. Ton. According to industry insiders, at present, the cost pressure of diammonium enterprises is relatively high, coupled with the weakening of downstream demand, the wait-and-see atmosphere of the diammonium market may continue in the short term.Potash prices have continued to rise recently, China's domestic potash fertilizer prices have continued to rise, and the market is in a high-level consolidation trend. In terms of potassium chloride, although a certain amount of new goods have arrived in Hong Kong, the supply of tradable goods in the market is still very tight. According to the data of the Potash and Potash Fertilizer Industry Branch of China Inorganic Salt Industry Association, as of the second week of January, the port potassium chloride inventory was about 2.404 million tons (excluding bonded), an increase of 16,000 tons from last week and a year-on-year decrease of 130,000 tons. Including products in the bonded area, the total inventory at the port is about 2.51 million tons. At present, the price of 62% white potassium in the port is about 4150 yuan/ton, which is 100 yuan/ton higher than last week. At present, the industry is paying more attention to large contracts, but there is no effective news yet. In terms of domestic potassium, the overall operating rate of the plant is slightly insufficient. It is understood that this is related to the fact that small factories have successively entered the state of shutdown and maintenance, and the operating rate of large factories is also at a low level. Although there are constantly new heavy volumes in the market, the supply of goods is still tight. At present, the market arrival price of 60% crystal potassium chloride of Qinghai Salt Lake Co., Ltd. is mostly 3850-3950 yuan/ton.In terms of potassium sulfate, the trading atmosphere has improved, and the price has continued to rise, ranging from 50 to 100 yuan/ton. In terms of resource-based potassium sulfate, Xinjiang SDIC Luo potassium plant has normal production, but due to low inventory, the price has recently increased by 100 yuan/ton, and the latest buyout price of 52% powder is 4,050 yuan/ton. In terms of processed potassium sulfate, the operating rate of the Mannheim potassium sulfate plant remains low. In addition, the price of potassium chloride has risen, which has increased the cost pressure, resulting in an upside-down price and no improvement in losses. At present, the price of Mannheim potassium sulfate 52% powder is 4000-4150 yuan/ton.The compound fertilizer market has been stable and small recently, China's domestic compound fertilizer market has not fluctuated much, and it is dominated by consolidation. In terms of raw materials, although the growth of urea has slowed down, the prices of phosphate fertilizers and potash fertilizers are still strong, and the cost support for compound fertilizers is still relatively large. In terms of price, the ex-factory price of 45% chlorine-based compound fertilizer is 2,750-3,050 yuan/ton, the ex-factory price of 45% sulfur-based compound fertilizer is 3,050-3,250 yuan/ton, and the ex-factory price of 51% high nitrogen fertilizer is 3,300-3,500 yuan. /Ton. In terms of demand, with the approach of the Spring Festival and the impact of the epidemic, transportation has gradually tightened, which has increased the enthusiasm for downstream delivery to a certain extent. At this stage, top dressing in spring is one of the main tasks in winter wheat growing areas. Tian Yaoxiong, chairman of Qinhuangdao Wuxian Weiai Technology Development Co., Ltd., told reporters that at present, domestic reserves are proceeding in an orderly manner, and the distribution of goods in Hebei has been completed by 50-60%. He also reflected that due to the recent large fluctuations in urea prices, the enthusiasm for grassroots purchases is not high, and there are generally not many stocks in hand.Probably in the short term, China's domestic compound fertilizer market will be dominated by the execution of pre-orders. Supported by the cost of raw materials, the price of compound fertilizer will continue to maintain a strong trend, and it is unlikely that there will be large fluctuations. Some people in the industry believe that due to factors such as the recent price rise of raw materials such as nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium, it is not ruled out that compound fertilizers may rise slightly in the short term. In this regard, Shi Hanming, general manager of Huaian Hongsen Agricultural Materials Co., Ltd. in Jiangsu Province, agreed. In addition, as the Spring Festival is approaching, the enthusiasm for downstream delivery will increase.