July 23 International Forex News

July 23, 2026

FDD-global.com

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Guide

Highlights at a glance

The article highlights key monetary policy developments in the US and China. As of July 23, CME FedWatch indicates a 65.3% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in July, with a 34.7% chance of a 25 bps hike. Looking ahead to September, the probabilities shift significantly, with just a 22.0% chance of unchanged rates, a 54.9% chance of a 25 bps hike, and a 23.0% chance of a 50 bps hike. Meanwhile, China's central bank has conducted a net liquidity withdrawal of RMB 422 billion through reverse repos, reflecting efforts to manage short-term liquidity in the financial system.

Probability of the Fed Keeping Rates Unchanged in July at 65.3%

July 23: According to CME FedWatch, the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged in July is 65.3%, while the probability of a cumulative 25 bps hike is 34.7%.

By September, the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged is 22.0%; the probability of a cumulative 25 bps hike is 54.9%; and the probability of a cumulative 50 bps hike is 23.0%.

China’s Central Bank Conducts Net Liquidity Withdrawal of RMB 422 Billion Through Reverse Repos

July 23: The People’s Bank of China conducted RMB 204 billion of 7-day reverse repos today. As RMB 626 billion of 7-day reverse repos matured today, the operation resulted in a net liquidity withdrawal of RMB 422 billion on the day.

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