July 31 International Forex News

July 31, 2026

FDD-global.com

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Highlights at a glance

According to CME FedWatch on July 31, the probability of a 25 bps Federal Reserve rate hike by September stands at 63.4%, while the likelihood of rates remaining unchanged is 36.6%. By October, the chances of a 25 bps hike drop to 56.3%, with a 16.9% probability for a 50 bps hike. Separately, Japanese media report that Japan and the U.S. have jointly intervened in the forex market to curb yen depreciation. The yen hit 157.80 against the U.S. dollar, prompting foreign exchange measures and rate checks from both nations' monetary authorities to stabilize the currency.

Probability of a 25 bps Fed Rate Hike in September Stands at 63.4%

July 31: According to CME FedWatch, the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged by September is 36.6%, while the probability of a cumulative 25 bps rate hike is 63.4%. By October, the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged is 26.9%; the probability of a cumulative 25 bps rate hike is 56.3%; and the probability of a cumulative 50 bps rate hike is 16.9%.

Japanese Media: Japan and the U.S. Jointly Intervene to Curb Yen Depreciation

July 31: According to Nikkei, during Thursday’s U.S. trading session, the yen rose sharply against the U.S. dollar, once reaching 157.80 yen per dollar. According to market participants, the Japanese government and the Bank of Japan conducted foreign exchange intervention by buying yen and selling dollars. At the same time, U.S. monetary authorities also carried out a “rate check,” a step before intervention. This means Japan and the U.S. jointly took action to curb yen depreciation.

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